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re: Do you believe in the Fermi Paradox: The Great Filter?

Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:03 pm to
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:03 pm to
quote:

that is not 1 in 1,000,000. It is 1 in that number with a million zero's behind it!


Pretty much.

When I was a Physics undergrad I and some of my classmates amused ourselves working this out. Basically if the particle is bigger than a subatomic particle, it ain't happening ever.

It would be less likely than winning a $1 billion Powerball lottery every year for billions of years.

But still some people will say "But yes, there's a chance!" Sigh.
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:07 pm to
How the hell did that come out of somebody with the username 'foshizzle'?

Are you secretly this guy -









This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 7:08 pm
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:11 pm to
quote:

But keep in mind that this is for a single tiny particle jumping a few nanometers across a barrier. For large objects (like cars) jumping meters past each other is another matter. That probability is so small that for the lifetimes of billions of universes it still isn't happening. It's greater than zero, but so incredibly tiny that we can confidently say it just won't happen.

And "teleporting" across interstellar distances is even less likely than that.


Exactly. OP went to the Bill Nye school of quantum mechanics.
Posted by Paul B Ammer
The Mecca of Tuscaloosa
Member since Jul 2017
2423 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:12 pm to
1). The range of the electromagnetic emanating from the Earth is probably a radius of 1 LY. You need truly power EM emitting sources to be detected over in stellar distances

2). Galactic civilization density. There may be tens or hundreds of galactic civilizations on the other arm of our galaxy. There may be 1 or 2 on this arm. The Andromeda galaxy may have thousands of advanced civilations. We may have 1 or 2 in the Milky Way.

Posted by funnystuff
Member since Nov 2012
8806 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

That video zooming out from inside your brain particles til you see a human, then the world, then the solar system til you see multiple galaxies has always tripped me out.

It is crazy how small we are.
And how big.


It’s always comforting to me to know that we’re exactly where we need to be in order to be able to perceive all of it, from the infinitely small to the infinitely big.
Posted by reverendotis
the jawbone of an arse
Member since Nov 2007
4907 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:16 pm to
It has been postulated that besides the roadblock of a planet having to be in a "goldilocks zone" around a star to suppport life, the amount of radiation on that developing planet is a limiting factor in the evolution of higher species.

Too much radiation makes it impossible to assemble much more than the simplest organisms and too little doesn't drive mutation at a rate needed for life capable of space exploration to evolve.

We may not be the only game in town but it took some incredibly good cosmic fortune for us to become us.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
11882 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

Except, our broadcast have hardly covered any space even in just our own galaxy

And our ability to detect alien broadcasts is based on some fairly questionable assumptions.

For starters, we assume that advanced civilizations would communicate using radio waves. Humans discovered radio waves in the 1880’s, so about 140 years ago. This represents 0.000003% of the history of life on Earth. It seems like hubris to assume that interstellar communication will take the same form a million or so years from now.

Second, we assume that advanced civilizations are actively transmitting (trying to be found) and that these transmissions are directed at us. Our instruments are not sensitive enough to pick up incidental broadcasts. From Wikipedia:
quote:

SETI estimates, for instance, that with a radio telescope as sensitive as the Arecibo Observatory, Earth's television and radio broadcasts would only be detectable at distances up to 0.3 light-years, less than 1/10 the distance to the nearest star.


Third, we assume that we’ve been looking long enough and that we are capable of detecting intestellar life. SETI scientists have only been looking for signs of alien engineering (think Dyson spheres, energy signatures, basically anything except radio transmissions) for about 20 years. And we don’t REALLY even know what we are looking for because, well, they are technologies we haven’t developed.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
40977 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:40 pm to
Enrico was an intellectual badass.

What he failed to take into consideration with regard to potential life on other planets is one of Einstein's little theories known as Special Relativity.

Other little variables throw wrenches in the gears as well.

1 - Planets orbit around suns. Suns are incredibly bright. Any attempts at sending signals (lasers for example) from planets orbiting bright objects would be muted. Meaning we would have a hard time seeing them.

2 - Light bends. When we look at galaxies billions of light years away we have no real clue where those galaxies are at present because, as you know, we are seeing them as they were 14 billion years ago. Furthermore, those protons we see have been bent (sic: misdirected) by heavy objects along the way so we're essentially looking through a house of mirrors (the best way I know to analogize it). What we see over here could easily have actually been behind us, over there.

3 - There is absolutely no doubt there is other life out there. Intelligent life. Problem is, as we know, we cannot travel near light speed nor can we send signals faster than light. And when we're talking communicating with other life, even in this Galaxy, we're talking such massive distances (let's saying 200,000 light years from one side of this Galaxy to the other) ... that even if you take out special relativity and space time continuums (4 dimensions mind you) and gravitational relativistic effects on photons ... well then we almost have to start thinking in terms of a matrix type existence.

Unless, unless, we figure out a way to fold that 4D space time continuum and pierce the fabric of space via worm holes or whatever.

Fermi was an absolute genius theorist but he was no Einstein.

Michio Kaku has pretty much despelled the Fermi Pardox as trivial even though Michael Hart made a case forty years ago for it not being so ... it's still interesting theory.

Another thing is that if we take the whole Drake Equation as serious science and math, which it is, (there's a great documentary on Netflix about this btw), then it only serves to further marginalize the Fermi Paradox as nothing more than an interesting mind game.

So to answer your question OP, no I do not believe in what the Fermi Paradox suggests. There are just too many variables he failed to take into account. And another thing. Why is it so dependent upon finding artifacts left behind here or anywhere? That's like asking us to find a piece of flea dung on the bottom of the Pacific in an area that was once above water three billion years ago. And even that is not an apples to apples comparison when you take into account the size of our Galaxy much less the universe.

And then when we start talking 11 dimensions and multiple universes ... it just doesn't hold up.
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 7:48 pm
Posted by nola000
Lacombe, LA
Member since Dec 2014
13139 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:40 pm to
That was awesome.

Bookmarked for my kids to read when they get old enough to understand it
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
29438 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:43 pm to
Foshizzle May be the smartest mother fricker on this site. I mean that’s like having the biggest dick in Asia. Still impressive.
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
43787 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:45 pm to
No. If you understand the scale of space, you realize it is impossible to even see another habitable planet. Much less communicate with it.
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
38336 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

Or his cat.



Which one?
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6530 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 7:59 pm to
quote:


You mean like the theory that homo sapiens wiped out Neanderthal? (And I know this theory is hotly contested, but the fact that it was accepted for so long kind of puts to bed the notion that "species don't annihilate other species")




...They used to accept the fact that the earth was the center of the universe too. The fact that it was accepted for so long kind of means that we can put to bed the notion "that the earth isn't the center of the universe".

quote:


You are speaking of life forms that have evolved in the same environment, on the same planet, not species competing to stay alive across galaxies. Symbiotic relationships can't evolve over such vast differences.



How does this do anything to support a theory that they must be seeking to annihilate anything else they encounter.


That just doesn't make sense either. You can't claim that because they are from far far away and super different they must be super aggressive and couldn't possibly have any altruistic traits. Also who's to say that the drastic differences couldn't be ultimately beneficial to both parties, Oh its just because you say so.


Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
40977 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:08 pm to
Pretty sure most physicists and sci-fi writers agree ... it's probably not wise to reach out and call more advanced civilizations to come in for a visit.

They'll come to us when it's time.

Curiosity killed the cat.
Posted by Havoc
Member since Nov 2015
34343 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

I am unaware of any species that specialize or even generally use a tactic of annihilating other species as self defense. This seems extremely unlikely as this strategy seems to maximize potential conflict, which makes 0 sense from a logical or evolutionary standpoint.

Tell that to the Indians.
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6530 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:14 pm to
quote:

Pretty sure most physicists and sci-fi writers agree ... it's probably not wise to reach out and call more advanced civilizations to come in for a visit.

They'll come to us when it's time.

Curiosity killed the cat.



Sure, theyll come when its time is a sentiment im ok with, but its very different than the guy i was responding to suggesting this theory that other alien life form species must be seeking out other species to destroy in order to prevent their supreme intergalatic species from being toppled.
Posted by AMS
Member since Apr 2016
6530 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:15 pm to
quote:

Tell that to the Indians.



Are you saying Indians are not homo sapiens?
Posted by mailman
Houston
Member since Jul 2009
6143 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:22 pm to
Its very likely that space has advanced civilizations but its less likely that they will vist us. We've only started to broadcast signals into space, if we wait 100k yrs then I'm sure we'll be visited. Our problem is that mankind is too destructive; we dont take care of each other, our planet and even space.

I hope within our lifetime we find life within our galaxy. Highly unlikely that we see anything past the milky way.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
40977 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

Sure, theyll come when its time is a sentiment im ok with, but its very different than the guy i was responding to suggesting this theory that other alien life form species must be seeking out other species to destroy in order to prevent their supreme intergalatic species from being toppled.

Agreed

Who knows. Whatever the case may be, we're toast if they come with bad intentions.

I hope for a more "Childhoods End" type of visitation. Or what's that movie that came out last year, Arrival? That was pretty cool.

None of it is good science though.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
69187 posts
Posted on 11/20/18 at 8:29 pm to
quote:

And we've been broadcasting our location for decades.


I’ve always thought this was incredibly stupid for us to do. Just looking at our own history, anytime an advanced civilization has encountered a less developed civilization, the end result has always been the eventual destruction of the less developed civilization.
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