re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

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you're a Fox8 guy? No WWL?

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Fox8 is the best in NOLA currently, though I typically watch WWL because I don't need the TV to tell me what's going to happen. WWL is pretty good though. All of them know their stuff.

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"Current" Forecast = current is WRONG, Always WRONG 4 - 5 days from landfall

Is it?

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Pretty cool chart:



We’re about 4 days out. NHC misses by 50 nautical miles or less about 20% of the time this far out.

Laura
Euro and icon nailed Barry a week out last year
Hanna
Michael
A bunch of other ones

We also are only 4 days out from landfall right now

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PUB

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As always, thanks for your great contributions to these threads. I still haven't figured out why you post in them.

Doomcane panic pushers fearcasting every other post in the thread.

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Houma / Thibodaux screwed




we'll be aight baw

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I think so too. Now there is so much levee protection now that the major issue would be the wind.

There is about 10-12 feet of levee protection across southern Terrebonne. In Lafourche the number is like 12 to 17 feet. There is an additional reservoir capacity behind levees in Terrebonne as several levees in Chauvin, Dulac, and Montegut have older levees that predate the Morganza to the Gulf system that will act as a second line of defense.

The only holes in the system exist between Lafourche and Terrebonne where work had only just begun to build a levee between the 2 parishes. There is also a floodgate that is under construction or in the late planning stages to close off Grand Bayou to prevent water from rising in the Intracostal.

Another hole exists between Lafourche and Jefferson where water can go up the eastern side of Bayou Lafourche and raise the water levels that way. The Intracostal is also open on the western front, but so much land has been built up and there is healthy swampland in western Terrebonne that will act as a natural ridge to keep water from getting too high. If memory serves me, the western Terrebonne marsh/swamp also acts as a sponge. The water comes up but slowly, then as water seeks its level after the storm Gibson can have high water. I believe after Rita or Ike it was a few days before there was high water in Gibson.

The big thing also is the wind. The more hours of Southerly winds the higher the water can get.

If you live outside the major hurricane protection systems, then all bets are off. You will see some major water impacts outside the systems and especially on Grand Isle.

This storm could pack all the elements of Lili 2002, Hilda from 1964, and the great hurricane of 1893 that destroyed Chenier Camanada.

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Name the last time it was even close to the landfall target 5 days out?

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They were pretty on point with Laura and beta

976mb extrapolated and our first purple wine barb on the current recon pass.

I’m pretty sure that poster is a female