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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:23 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
Usually when they say it's coming right for us it ends up being a bright sunny day.
Hopefully the forecasts shits the bed this time as well.
Ain't noone got time for an October CoronaCane.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:23 pm to jimbeam
quote:
Everyone fire up your YETIS right fricking now. Start making some ice in there. Tomorrow at 5 we gonna meet at Cypremort Point n dump that all and cool that water like that
But not the crescent shaped ice. Ain't nobody like that, including the GOM.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:24 pm to habz007
quote:
Now Cuba has been removed from that cone with significant shift to Yucatan. That early cone was much too tight.
Since we’ll be arguing about comes for the next 5 days, I’ll go ahead and get this started once again...
The cone is NOT a prediction of track confidence on any particular storm. Rather, it is the one standard deviation track error from the past 5 years at each time interval. Take the projected center location, make a line with the radius of one standard deviation of error since 2015, then draw a circle. Connect the circles and you now have a cone.
Is it dumb that the cone cannot change with confidence? Of course, but that’s the way it works unfortunately.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:24 pm to Black n Gold
No baw. That sonic ice like that.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:25 pm to DVinBR
quote:
HWRF rips Delta apart before it makes landfall in SELA
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:26 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
Why is the water closer to the coast (on the shelf) cooler? Its shallower so I would think it would be warmer (not having the deep cold water).
It’s cooler precisely because it’s shallower. It is most prone to air temperature fluctuations. Your pool heats up and cools down much faster than the middle of the ocean (obviously an extreme example).
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:26 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
Well frick. I'm getting married on Sunday on the MS coast.
NEVER schedule a wedding during football season.
Sunday’s are ok because nobody cares about the SJWNFL anymore
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:27 pm to DVinBR
quote:Hopeful. Whats the reason? Shear?
HWRF rips Delta apart before it makes landfall in SELA
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:27 pm to DVinBR
Will there still be some shear over the western gulf in a couple days? Hopefully this bitch tracks over Yucatan and starts weakening and the shear destroys her.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:29 pm to Duke
quote:
WTF is going on?
quote:
Duke having kids
You see when a man loves a woman...
Technically you don’t have to love her
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:29 pm to questionable
Any way we can get a NOLA city inspector out there to look at this storm? That would all but guarantee it's demise.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:29 pm to Jake88
quote:
Hopeful. Whats the reason? Shear?
SW shear I’d forecasted to be a factor late along with the cooler waters.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:31 pm to lsusteve1
quote:
Team HWRF
HwRF has been pretty good this year with intensity (relatively speaking), but it’s been all over the place with Delta this far. 18 hours ago it was bottoming our Delta at 942mb, but the 12z run today had it getting no lower than 971mb (it’s already at 980mb or so).
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:32 pm to doubleb
Is the shear currently happening and just waiting on the storm's approach or is it only a projection at this time? What is the certainty of the shear if not already going on?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:33 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
Serious question (not trolling).
Why is the water closer to the coast (on the shelf) cooler? Its shallower so I would think it would be warmer (not having the deep cold water).
Cooler air temps the past week across the gulf states
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:34 pm to buford4LSU
quote:
Houma / Thibodaux screwed
we'll be aight baw
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:34 pm to slackster
quote:
The cone is NOT a prediction of track confidence on any particular storm. Rather, it is the one standard deviation track error from the past 5 years at each time interval. Take the projected center location, make a line with the radius of one standard deviation of error since 2015, then draw a circle. Connect the circles and you now have a cone.
I hear you. But just an easy observation, the cone from overnight doesn’t even overlap at all through the region of the Yucatan pass. That’s a mere 18hrs, and the cone completely jumped. Doesn’t mean anything to us here, but the folks in Cancun and Cozumel are probably flipping tables.
They made the initial 24-48hr cone unnecessarily too tight (that’s what she said).
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:35 pm to rds dc
Recon extrapolated down to 978ish. The extrapolated pressure was too high on the 1st pass, so it will be interesting to see the VDM on this pass.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:35 pm to Jake88
quote:
*Louisiana in the Cone AGAIN** Gulf Bound by Jake88
Is the shear currently happening and just waiting on the storm's approach or is it only a projection at this time? What is the certainty of the shear if not already going on?
I believe it is predicted as a trough in the Midwest dips south
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 5:04 pm
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