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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:52 am to Tarps99
quote:
But I fricked it up. It is not blackjack, it is roulette.
Roulette is a game of chance with no knowledge of where that little ball is going to land. By definition, it is a terrible comparison to meteorology, where we literally have access to mounds of influencing factors and data, as well as historic trends and precedent, which give us the ability to make very educated guesses with a high probability of being correct.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 11:53 am
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:53 am to Mr. Hangover
quote:
Y’all do this to yourselves every time. Not sure if it’s it mental conditioning from the media, but there are so many things that can change between now and landfall..... this thing isn’t even to the western tip of Cuba and people are already assuming the worst
The problem for me is that I have family / friends spread out throughout the Gulf Coast - plus this has just been one of those years that it makes me nervous whenever they are spinning up out there without knowing how strong it will be.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:53 am to SlidellCajun
This latest GFS run is the worst case senerio for St. Mary and Iberia Parish. Most likely will get the NE eye wall on this track but the good news is, this is a five day projection.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:56 am to purple18
quote:
This latest GFS run is the worst case senerio for St. Mary and Iberia Parish. Most likely will get the NE eye wall on this track but the good news is, this is a five day projection.
Iberia would be west of eye and so would part of St Mary
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:56 am to bubbz
quote:
Rain won’t be the issue with this storm
Also, the fast forward speed means that the cooler near shore waters won't weaken the system as drastically.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:58 am to rds dc
Now that there really sucks. 
Posted on 10/5/20 at 11:58 am to rds dc
Will East Baton Rouge cancel school tomorrow or will they wait until Wednesday?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:00 pm to Large Farva
quote:
We should know more once we get more information
I don't have any fancy doctorate of atmospheric science, etc, but I think by Thursday night we'll know where the landfall will be
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:01 pm to rds dc
quote:
Also, the fast forward speed means that the cooler near shore waters won't weaken the system as drastically.
That's why the HWRF run from last night that bombed Delta out concerned me. Forward speed and early Intensification minimizes the impact of the cooler SSTs near the coast. Also, it isn't always a guarantee that cooler SSTs near the coast will result in rapid or substantial weakening.
If we start to see model agreement on intensity like we have on track, I think that concern has to go up.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:05 pm to Earthquake 88
Good Luck for sure
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:08 pm to PUB
quote:
Iberia would be west of eye and so would part of St Ma
On the current forecast track..yes but the 12z GFS run has the storm coming up Vermilion Bay as a Cat 3
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:08 pm to purple18
Mother Effer
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:10 pm to LaBR4
quote:
I don't have any fancy doctorate of atmospheric science, etc, but I think by Thursday night we'll know where the landfall will be
Next 72 hours are key IMO
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:14 pm to purple18
quote:
On the current forecast track..yes but the 12z GFS run has the storm coming up Vermilion Bay as a Cat 3
At one time they had Sally hitting Lafitte as a Cat 2. They were a wee bit off.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:20 pm to EveryoneGetsATrophy
quote:
At one time they had Sally hitting Lafitte as a Cat 2. They were a wee bit off.
They issued a mandatory evacuation for Grand Isle for Sally Sunday Morning....
I dont think it even rained on Grand Isle
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:21 pm to EveryoneGetsATrophy
You Baws in Louisiana really pissed off the powers that be in 2020 
Good luck again. You guys are like a magnet for hurricanes this year.
Good luck again. You guys are like a magnet for hurricanes this year. Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:22 pm to purple18
quote:
On the current forecast track..yes but the 12z GFS run has the storm coming up Vermilion Bay as a Cat 3
No it doesn’t
The eye on the gfs is heading NNE over the wax delta and then over Morgan city
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:25 pm to rds dc
Recon head out. Hopefully, this mission will clear some things up as sat presentation looks good and conditions appear favorable but both the HWRF & HMON show the system struggling over the next day or so.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 12:28 pm to rds dc
Dis gonna be good
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