re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

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keep your eye on this thing but give it some time

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The convective structure of Delta has continued to improve this morning. Earlier microwave data and early-light visible satellite imagery showed that the center of the tropical cyclone re-formed farther south within the area of deep convection. Since that time, banding has continued to increase around the southern and eastern portion of the circulation, and a small CDO-like feature has formed. The intensity has been set at 40 kt, which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical storm this afternoon, which should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity, structure, and wind field.

With the earlier center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/6 kt. Delta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion later today. A northwestward heading around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the south-central United States, which should weaken the western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south and west of the previous advisory during the first couple of days, primarily due to the recent center re-formation and more southward initial position. After that time, the NHC track is not much different than the previous forecast and lies near the center of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope.

Delta is forecast to traverse very warm waters over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and be in a very low vertical wind shear environment during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow for significant strengthening during that time, and the NHC intensity forecast is at or above the various intensity aids. It is somewhat surprising that the intensity aids were generally a little lower this cycle, but the expected low shear and SHIPS rapid intensification index support the higher than climatological rate of intensification. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to induce some weakening later in the period. The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over the next 48-60 hours, but is similar to the previous advisory thereafter.

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TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 78.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2020 0 16.4N 78.5W 1004 34
0000UTC 06.10.2020 12 16.9N 80.2W 1001 34
1200UTC 06.10.2020 24 18.2N 82.2W 998 35
0000UTC 07.10.2020 36 20.3N 84.6W 995 39
1200UTC 07.10.2020 48 22.2N 87.4W 984 49
0000UTC 08.10.2020 60 23.9N 90.0W 976 55
1200UTC 08.10.2020 72 24.7N 91.9W 972 64
0000UTC 09.10.2020 84 25.3N 92.1W 969 63
1200UTC 09.10.2020 96 27.3N 91.6W 960 69
0000UTC 10.10.2020 108 29.9N 90.6W 971 57
1200UTC 10.10.2020 120 32.0N 89.6W 992 32
0000UTC 11.10.2020 132 33.1N 87.7W 998 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 144 34.5N 85.6W 1002 22

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 131.5W

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Doesn't sound very wishcasting to me when you read that advisory. I guess NHC is looking for clicks too huh? It has conditions to support a major hurricane plain and simple.

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A northwestward heading around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the south-central United States, which should weaken the western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough.

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I was just making an observation based on what the NHC is trying to do. It is a part comedy.

They don't exactly know where it is going unless someone has invented time travel, but they have an idea of where they think it could head to.

That is why they draw the cone, it covers most of their bases. So hence the gambling reference. But I fricked it up. It is not blackjack, it is roulette.

I really need to stop sniffing glue before breakfast.

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So....meteorological forecasting?

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