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Started By
Message
re: Curve is clearly flattening - Updated: still looking good
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:05 pm to BeepNode
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:05 pm to BeepNode
quote:
Does this look flat to you?
Deaths will be the last metric to improve. And I’d follow deaths per day:
I’m not arguing that this thing is over, and I acknowledge that a few more days of data might show something different. But, about now, a couple weeks into the lockdown, is when we should start seeing the benefit. So I’m hopeful.
1
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:08 pm to deeprig9
quote:
High C, deaths lag two weeks behind real-time infection rates. Therefore other data closer to real time can show flattering while deaths don't.
Understood, I was just asking for the source of the graph that he posted.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:09 pm to lildaddy86
But that’s what flattening of the curve refers to, so I’m missing your point
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:11 pm to dcw7g
Main thing we need to get now is medical supply chain rolling, quick tests/antibody tests and doctors / nurses mobilized.
We can head back to work if those things happen.
The flattening allows us to catch up.
We can head back to work if those things happen.
The flattening allows us to catch up.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:12 pm to High C
Understood I meant to respond to beepnode
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:13 pm to OweO
quote:
hospitals are already being pushed to the limit.
Are they?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:14 pm to deeprig9
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:14 pm to dorseyforheisman
quote:
But that’s what flattening of the curve refers to, so I’m missing your point
Flattening the curve is completely and entirely about hospitalizations. That’s what it was designed for, to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:35 pm to dcw7g
This is the data the graph is based on. I first posted it I think last week and we really didn't have enough data to see trends. Now we can certainly see a trend developing in hospitalizations and ventilator usages. The rate of change helps you see the trend and it is consistently dropping. The graph shows this visually as it starts to flatten out. What happened on 3/30 seems to have been an outlier but ever since 3/29 the trend has been down.
This continues to be very good news for Louisiana. I haven't been watching the governors press conferences but if they aren't talking about this they should be.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:45 pm to CajunTiger92
quote:
haven't been watching the governors press conferences but if they aren't talking about this they should be.
I expect they’ll give it another day or two, don’t want to jump the gun. I think this better be what I think it is, because if we don’t see signs the stay-at-home is not working by now, what’s the point of continuing?
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:47 pm to dcw7g
I think New York hospitals are clearly being overrun. New Orleans/Jefferson Parish not so much. I'm sure it's physically and mentally taxing for health care workers right now but I haven't seen any local reporting to the effect that the health care system in Louisiana in on the brink of failure.
That's not to say I don't agree with the governor being proactive in acquiring more ventilators and equipment. To do otherwise would be foolish.
That's not to say I don't agree with the governor being proactive in acquiring more ventilators and equipment. To do otherwise would be foolish.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 2:57 pm to dcw7g
quote:
I expect they’ll give it another day or two, don’t want to jump the gun.
And that’s fine. The data might jump around a bit but as long as the overall trend is downward it is showing progress is being made.
We need to start thinking about what success looks like, what point do we start allowing parts of the state to get some normalcy and how is that done. Hopefully they are having these conversations now.
Posted on 4/4/20 at 3:21 pm to TheEnglishman
Or
Or our testing capacity is increasing?
quote:
Cases increasing means more chance of hospitalization increasing.
Or our testing capacity is increasing?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:24 pm to dcw7g
Two more days of data, looking good to me:
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:31 pm to GusMcRae
Screw CNN
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:34 pm to dcw7g
Yes indeed. Definitely seeing a slow of hospitalizations statewide now. Also a trend downward in new cases per day. Deaths should follow within a week.
By this time next week (Monday 4/13) we will be seeing a consistent downward trend in new cases per day as well as hospitalizations following with fewer COVID patients in the hospital than the day before. New deaths per day will start leveling off but won't start trending strongly down until the following week, around 4/20.
OPEN THIS BITCH UP, LETS RIDE
By this time next week (Monday 4/13) we will be seeing a consistent downward trend in new cases per day as well as hospitalizations following with fewer COVID patients in the hospital than the day before. New deaths per day will start leveling off but won't start trending strongly down until the following week, around 4/20.
OPEN THIS BITCH UP, LETS RIDE
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:38 pm to WizardSleeve
Do we still have fricking morons in Louisiana and Florida packing churches? Because if so, that is a reason why this thing is going to drag on much longer than it should.
Also should be noted that a flattening and even decline in the curve doesn't mean that it won't immediately spike following a complete removal of all curfews and quarantines (if done too soon).
Also should be noted that a flattening and even decline in the curve doesn't mean that it won't immediately spike following a complete removal of all curfews and quarantines (if done too soon).
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:40 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Have one here in Kentucky (Bullitt Co. just outside of Louisville) that’s held services the last two Sundays with no social distancing. News filmed them shaking hands, sitting in close proximity, etc. Cases are already starting to pop up from it.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:42 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
doesn't mean that it won't immediately spike following a complete removal of all curfews and quarantines (if done too soon).
I think it will without a vaccine because the virus ain't going anywhere.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 12:43 pm to BluegrassBelle
quote:
Have one here in Kentucky (Bullitt Co. just outside of Louisville) that’s held services the last two Sundays with no social distancing. News filmed them shaking hands, sitting in close proximity, etc. Cases are already starting to pop up from it.
My mind does not have the ability to grasp the level of stupidity of those people. I would say, good, they'll find out the hard way, but they're gonna take down a bunch of innocent people with them.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 12:44 pm
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