re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Why don’t you think I’ve haven’t already rode in to be the TD OT hero?

The flaw in your study is that it’s using known Influenza deaths AND ADDING random unrelated pneumonia deaths to that number then plugging it into this fancy equation:

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The full model was written as follows: Y = a exp{ß0 + ß1[t] + ß2[t2] + ß3[sin(2p/52)] + ß4[cos(2p/52)] + ß5[A(H1N1)] + ß6[A(H3N2)] + ß7B] + ß8[RSV]}

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Your own study is pointing out the problems with the data

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Influenza-associated all-cause death estimates have been previously used to represent the full spectrum of deaths associated with influenza infections. However, these estimates include deaths such as those caused by fires and motor vehicle crashes, which are not directly associated with respiratory viral infections.

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But the best part of all of this is that their model is showing exactly what I’m saying:

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For underlying pneumonia and influenza deaths, we estimated an annual mean of 8097 (SD, 3084; range, 3515-13 033) influenza-associated deaths, representing 9.8% (8097/82 239) of these deaths

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You are quoting 61,000 flu deaths. That’s the total number of all flu AND RANDOM PNEUMONIA deaths.

The study you are quoting is estimating that only 8,097 of all those are from the flu. And this is a higher number than other models in their study showed.

Which is exactly what I’m saying. It’s much less than the number commonly quoted.

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The full model was written as follows: Y = a exp{ß0 + ß1[t] + ß2[t2] + ß3[sin(2p/52)] + ß4[cos(2p/52)] + ß5[A(H1N1)] + ß6[A(H3N2)] + ß7B] + ß8[RSV]}

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The fricking CDC didn’t even find the first case. This group in Seattle had to develop their own test to find what they knew was there. Unbelievable.

STATnews

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The fed govt is too busy worrying about stupid shite than it is about the one or four things they actually could do to help the people. We don't have bridges, decent road, or an agency to help us stay healthy with a concise plan for situations like this.

The players also have games for their national team which they sometimes miss their italian league games and also play in tournaments outside their league during league play. Pretty much impossible to reschedule games.

The change in definition has very little to do with anything.

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That CDC weekly monitoring is NOT their estimated death burden - it's simply their tool for monitoring whether or not an epidemic is occurring. The change in 1999-2000 by the CDC simply changed the baseline for monitoring epidemics, it was not a change in the methodology for estimated deaths.

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This is how the CDC says they calculate deaths From CDC

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We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death.

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Answer this question, are random unrelated pneumonia cases included in their models?

Right people die of the pneumonia. Just because a person dies of pneumonia doesn’t mean they have the coronavirus.

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Answer this question, are random unrelated pneumonia cases included in their models?

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Their models account for that.

Also, look at the entire explanation:

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We first look at how many in-hospital deaths were observed in FluSurv-NET. The in-hospital deaths are adjusted for under-detection of influenza using methods similar to those described above for hospitalizations using data on the frequency and sensitivity of influenza testing. Second, because not all deaths related to influenza occur in the hospital, we use death certificate data to estimate how likely deaths are to occur outside the hospital. We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death. We use information on the causes of death from FluSurv-NET to determine the mixture of P&I, R&C, and other coded deaths to include in our investigation of death certificate data. Finally, once we estimate the proportion of influenza-associated deaths that occurred outside of the hospital, we can estimate the deaths-to-hospitalization ratio.

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They even explicitly answer your question:

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Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?

Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact.

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And if you want to educate yourself, read references 1 and 2, and then read their references, and so on and so forth. You should quickly see why your take is foolish.



They even put it in picture form for you...

Take the actual reported hospitalization rate from the FluSurv-NET, correct for historical under-detection, extrapolate to a national hospitalization number. From there, they back into an estimate of symptomatic illnesses (using historical data and methodology that is littered across the CDC website). The also take the hospitalizations and calculate a death toll which uses a litany of data and studies as well.

Granted, it's much easier (and plainly incorrect) to say they just lump all P&I deaths together and spit out a number, but a little reading quickly erodes that lazy premise.

This conversation is way to nuanced and boring for this thread. If you want to continue the discussion let’s bump the thread specifically for this on the poli board.

It’s going to take you awhile to explain these models

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"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said

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https://news.yahoo.com/crisis-yale-professor-said-u-143223472.html