re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Wow.

What does it take to replace top brass at the CDC?

3.95%

Which is slightly higher than the WHO 3.71% figure.

Hmmmm....

With so much arguing going on in this thread I think there's only one thing universally agreed upon. The CDC is filled with a bunch of incompetent buffoons.

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This proves my point. It’s saying that 78% of pneumonia deaths are due to flu. It’s just wrong. There are countless other causes of pneumonia, flu is minuscule on that list.

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No, no it's not. You don't understand the methodology or the numbers.

The numbers I posted were the death certificate causes of death. The CDC's model believes a portion of those pneumonia deaths are from the flu, but it also believes there are deaths attributable to other death certificate causes that are actually flu related as well. The Venn diagram of CDC flu deaths would include some of those P&I deaths, but it would mostly include complications resulting from the flu - typically the worsening of underlying conditions.

Think about this in a practical sense - the majority of deaths due to COVID-19 are people with underlying medical issues. The CDC believes the same thing happens with the flu. Either they all count for COVID-19 and influenza, or none of them count.

I can no longer tell which one of you is for higher or lower death rates from COVID19 infections and suspected infections.

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The numbers I posted were the death certificate causes of death.

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A large group of causes of death combined into one.

I’m breaking down that number from the actual causes on the death certificate. Go to the link and look for yourself.

There are 8 different death certificates causes that encompass every flu death. Wether from flu directly or a complication of flu. They even have 4 different causes for a case where you think there was flu but no test was done. These are (virus not identified).

Here are the categories:

Flu (indentified virus) - 215
Flu with pneumonia (identified virus) - 95
Flu/ other respiratory manifestations (virus identified) - 112
Flu/ other manifestations (virus identified) - 8

Flu (virus not identified) - 634
Flu with pneumonia (virus not identified - 322
Flu/other respiratory manifestations (virus not identified) - 301
Flu/ other manifestation (virus not identified) - 11


So give me an example of a case of flu death that couldn’t be put in one of these categories.

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The causes of bacterial pneumonia can be endless and have nothing to do with flu, but these are somehow included in the data.

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Once again, no, no they are not.

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For the 1990-1991 through 1998-1999 seasons, the greatest mean numbers of deaths were associated with influenza A(H3N2) viruses, followed by RSV, influenza B, and influenza A(H1N1). Influenza viruses and RSV, respectively, were associated with annual means (SD) of 8097 (3084) and 2707 (196) underlying pneumonia and influenza deaths, 36 155 (11 055) and 11 321 (668) underlying respiratory and circulatory deaths, and 51 203 (15 081) and 17 358 (1086) all-cause deaths.

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However, numbers of deaths attributable to influenza are difficult to estimate directly because influenza infections typically are not confirmed virologically or specified on hospital discharge forms or death certificates. In addition, many influenza-associated deaths occur from secondary complications when influenza viruses are no longer detectable.4,5 Nonetheless, wintertime influenza epidemics have been shown to be associated with increased hospitalizations and mortality for many diagnoses, including congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, and bacterial superinfections

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LINK

Feel free to start in the references and read article after article that explains why "influenza and pneumonia" deaths are actually a very small part of the CDC estimate. Your conclusion that all pneumonia deaths - or even most pneumonia deaths - are calculated as the flu is simply incorrect. This study pegs influenza for less than 10% of P&I deaths. However, P&I death reports are useful because they're available in near real-time, hence the CDC surveillance and epidemic threshold:

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Any possible cause of mortality related to flu can be classified in one of those categories.

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Sure, but it's not. That's the point, and study after study shows that to be true.

Fabrizio Romano is a leading reporter on Italian soccer:

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Official: new COVID decree measures here in Italy. All sports events - also Serie A - can only be done behind closed doors for 30 days. No more fans in the stadiums. The measures will be effective until April 3. ??????

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Frustrated by the lack of testing resulting from the problem with the CDC-developed kit, the Seattle Flu Study began using an in-house developed test to look for Covid-19 in samples from people who had flu-like symptoms but who had tested negative for flu. That work — permissible because it was research — uncovered the Snohomish County teenager.

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As I said....politics not technical problem.

The sequence is public knowledge, there are even public domain tools to help you design it.

Vial of custom reagent is around 60 bucks.

Only real barrier to entry is the 20-70k thermal Cycler.

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They take a step further and say “pneumonia” anywhere on the death certificate is included in their calculations. Even if the cause is specified. This is directly from the methods give by the CDC

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Completely fabricated. Your thread on the Political Talk is full of half truths and poor understanding of the source material. Part of that smoking gun definition change you think you found in 1999-2000 data actually reduced P&I reported deaths by over 30% with ICD-10. Those reports flow down to the mortality tables you're referencing.

LINK

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A change in the direct sequel rule (Rule 3) is responsible for the comparability ratio of 0.6982 for Influenza and pneumonia (113-list number 076). While Influenza (113-list number 077) is largely unaffected by the revision (comparability ratio of 1.0088), Pneumonia(113-list number 078) has a comparability ratio of 0.6957. When pneumonia is listed on the death certificate with another cause of death, and it is obviously a direct consequence of that other cause, then the other cause is selected as the underlying cause of death. In ICD–10, this rule is applied more broadly than in ICD–9 and specifies many more causes for which pneumonia is considered a direct consequence. Thus, deaths classified as pneumonia in ICD–9 are classified in ICD–10 to many other causes. The most prominent causes are Diseases of heart, Cerebrovascular diseases, Malignant neoplasms, Chronic lower respiratory diseases, Septicemia, Malnutrition, and Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis.

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What the CDC changed in 1999-2000 was how they monitored real-time (weekly) reports of P&I deaths for their weekly epidemic surveillance. For example, in 2016, based on ICD-10 specific death codes, which attempt to classify a death to a primary cause, influenza deaths were 6,515 and pneumonia deaths were 49,157. However, the broad CDC monitoring of influenza or pneumonia being mentioned anywhere says influenza deaths were 8,135 and pneumonia deaths were 180,151. That CDC weekly monitoring is NOT their estimated death burden - it's simply their tool for monitoring whether or not an epidemic is occurring. The change in 1999-2000 by the CDC simply changed the baseline for monitoring epidemics, it was not a change in the methodology for estimated deaths.