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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/29/20 at 9:38 am to No Colors
Posted on 2/29/20 at 9:38 am to No Colors
quote:
The biggest issue with this virus is that it appears to be highly contagious. And it may be deadlier than common flus and other respiratory pathogens. But it's not gonna wipe out the world.
The 1918 pandemic did not wipe out the world. It had a 2.5% mortality rate. It was pretty devastating globally on many levels.
Right now this virus has been around a 1-3% mortality rate. Obviously we are light years ahead medically vs the early 1900s.
Edit: One significant difference with the 1918 flu was that it equally effected younger adults. So far under 40 deaths have been pretty minimal.
This post was edited on 2/29/20 at 9:57 am
1
Posted on 2/29/20 at 9:39 am to rds dc
quote:
The actual flu death rates are so low that the totals generated each year are augmented by modeling.
Have there been studies to try and determine the fatality rate across a spectrum of verified influenza cases? For example, test every individual in a sample population (maybe a small town or village) who develops flu-like symptoms during one flu season. Then follow those who test positive and count the deaths deemed related to the infection.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 9:59 am to rds dc
quote:
LINK
Article that is worth the read, takes a pretty level approach and doesn't try to fan the fire.
So they’re predicting between 70,000 and 7,000,000 deaths worldwide. Sounds about right to me.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:02 am to CivilTiger83
quote:
So far under 40 deaths have been pretty minimal.
Every death in Italy has been a minimum age of 63 and the 63 year old was an outlier when you look at the ages of the other deaths.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:07 am to VABuckeye
Who needs socialism when we’ve got the coronavirus to redistribute wealth
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:12 am to VABuckeye
quote:
Every death in Italy has been a minimum age of 63 and the 63 year old was an outlier when you look at the ages of the other deaths.
At least a couple of under 50 doctors in China have died.
Not sure why you are trying to argue. I noted that this has mostly effected the elderly when it comes to mortality.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:15 am to CivilTiger83
I'm not arguing. Not sure how you took it that way. I was supporting your statement.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:18 am to VABuckeye
What about the 40-year-olds that are recovering from it now but are guaranteed to die from the flu when they’re in their early 60s because of the permanent lesions they are getting in their lungs now
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:20 am to VABuckeye
quote:
I'm not arguing. Not sure how you took it that way. I was supporting your statement.
My apologies.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:21 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
There are other nuances, but that’s 1,000 foot view
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:26 am to Old Sarge
quote:
What about the 40-year-olds that are recovering from it now but are guaranteed to die from the flu when they’re in their early 60s because of the permanent lesions they are getting in their lungs now
You have a link to this doomsday scenario site? You're postulating something you can't prove as fact. IOW, fearmongering.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:31 am to Old Sarge
quote:How do you know they are permanent? You cannot make that prediction over a few weeks.
What about the 40-year-olds that are recovering from it now but are guaranteed to die from the flu when they’re in their early 60s because of the permanent lesions they are getting in their lungs now
Are you aware that pneumonia lesions remain for weeks after a diagnosis and treatment?
It is why we don’t repeat imaging soon after a diagnosis unless there are worsening symptoms.
Where is this information coming from?
Get back to me when they rescan these individuals a year from now.
This post was edited on 2/29/20 at 10:34 am
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:33 am to Poker_hog
quote:
So they’re predicting between 70,000 and 7,000,000 deaths worldwide. Sounds about right to me.
That is an insane prediction that is almost guaranteed to not be wrong.
“Yea, there will be somewhere between 70,000 deaths and ten times that number worldwide.”
Whoever made that prediction is hedging his bets to the maximum.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:38 am to Scruffy
Any attempt to predict deaths is pointless at this stage. Too many variables.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:48 am to Scruffy
quote:
That is an insane prediction that is almost guaranteed to not be wrong.
“Yea, there will be somewhere between 70,000 deaths and ten times that number worldwide.”
Whoever made that prediction is hedging his bets to the maximum.
Did you read the article? It was well written and balanced. They acknowledge that there is a ton that we don't know and they put a best guess, based on what we know now, for best case and worst case scenarios. Also, that wasn't even the main point of the article.
quote:
How to Save Lives in a COVID-19 Pandemic
LINK
Posted on 2/29/20 at 10:55 am to lakeviewtiger
Does it cause high fever? That's the only thing I'm worried about.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 11:02 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Any attempt to predict deaths is pointless at this stage. Too many variables.
I agree from a 24-hr news cycle point of view. However, it is necessary from a policy making, funding and preparedness perspective. A lot of energy is spent on trying to understand risk and how to best communicate that risk. As a scientist, I never expected to devote so much of my time to this kind of stuff. However, it is kind of cool to read an emergency funding bill and be like, "that right there, that was my point"
Posted on 2/29/20 at 11:11 am to rds dc
quote:
President Trump will hold a press conference on coronavirus at 1:30 p.m. ET
Posted on 2/29/20 at 11:14 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Absolutely.
Any attempt to predict deaths is pointless at this stage. Too many variables.
What that statement is though is akin to someone judging the stock market and saying “some time in the future, the market will fall”.
My prediction is that somewhere between 0 and 7 billion deaths will occur...and I’m already right.
Posted on 2/29/20 at 11:16 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Any attempt to predict deaths is pointless at this stage. Too many variables.
Yeah but predicting a range is useful. It’s extremely wide but will narrow with better data. It already eliminates some of the predictions made by both doomers and downplayers.
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