re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Here is a copy of the Federal Governent’s Playbook for pandemics.

LINK

There is a thread I made on the Poli board but I want to post it hear to get your thoughts as well. There are not 36,000 flu deaths every year. Let me explain why, it’s very easy to understand.

All of the following data is from CDC’s mortality spreadsheets CDC Mortality

This is what one of these sheets looks like


Here is what it says:
Flu (indentified virus) - 215
Flu with pneumonia (identified virus) - 95
Flu/ other respiratory manifestations (virus identified) - 112
Flu/ other manifestations (virus identified) - 8

Flu (virus not identified) - 634
Flu with pneumonia (virus not identified - 322
Flu/other respiratory manifestations (virus not identified) - 301
Flu/ other manifestation (virus not identified) - 11

Total: 1,698

As you can see this already takes into account cases that were suspected but no virus was identified by testing. In fact, that’s the bulk of the cases. Now how does the CDC get to 36,000?

Because they changed their definition of a flu death to be CDC Methods Section

quote:

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For the 1999--00 influenza season, this case definition was changed so that a P&I death was defined as one in which pneumonia or influenza was listed anywhere on the death certificate

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That means if someone dies and the doctor writes ONLY pneumonia on the death certificate that is counted by the CDC in the flu statistics.

They then use surveys of doctors to determine the number of what’s called an ILI (Influenza like Ilness). An ILI is:
1. Fever over 100
2. Cough OR sore throat

They then plug pneumonia cases and number of ILIs into a fancy model and it’s spits out a number of “estimated influenza deaths”

I’m sure you can see this is complete and utter nonsense. They actually report the number of flu deaths as 1,698. That already includes an estimation of suspected cases.

All of this is done so that they can claim there is an epidemic and scare you so that you get your flu shot.

WHICH I AGREE WITH!!! You should get your flu shot.

That’s what I have been trying to tell you all. Sorry it took this long to show the data.

The same people who you think are sensationalizing the corona virus are the ones who put out the flu statistics every year.

It all depends on how much income will be effected on corporations.

I just did a search of the CDC document and there is actually a diagnosis of “viral pneumonia, not otherwise specified”... 200 people died of that.

So I can’t find significant flu deaths hiding in the numbers anywhere else. But I’m open to search for other terms.

Thank you for posting this.

quote:

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There is a thread I made on the Poli board but I want to post it hear to get your thoughts as well. There are not 36,000 flu deaths every year. Let me explain why, it’s very easy to understand.

All of the following data is from CDC’s mortality spreadsheets CDC Mortality

This is what one of these sheets looks like


Here is what it says:
Flu (indentified virus) - 215
Flu with pneumonia (identified virus) - 95
Flu/ other respiratory manifestations (virus identified) - 112
Flu/ other manifestations (virus identified) - 8

Flu (virus not identified) - 634
Flu with pneumonia (virus not identified - 322
Flu/other respiratory manifestations (virus not identified) - 301
Flu/ other manifestation (virus not identified) - 11

Total: 1,698

As you can see this already takes into account cases that were suspected but no virus was identified by testing. In fact, that’s the bulk of the cases. Now how does the CDC get to 36,000?

Because they changed their definition of a flu death to be CDC Methods Section

quote:
For the 1999--00 influenza season, this case definition was changed so that a P&I death was defined as one in which pneumonia or influenza was listed anywhere on the death certificate



That means if someone dies and the doctor writes ONLY pneumonia on the death certificate that is counted by the CDC in the flu statistics.

They then use surveys of doctors to determine the number of what’s called an ILI (Influenza like Ilness). An ILI is:
1. Fever over 100
2. Cough OR sore throat

They then plug pneumonia cases and number of ILIs into a fancy model and it’s spits out a number of “estimated influenza deaths”

I’m sure you can see this is complete and utter nonsense. They actually report the number of flu deaths as 1,698. That already includes an estimation of suspected cases.

All of this is done so that they can claim there is an epidemic and scare you so that you get your flu shot.

WHICH I AGREE WITH!!! You should get your flu shot.

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The actual flu death rates are so low that the totals generated each year are augmented by modeling. Mortality rate is estimated to be 6 per 100,000 people world wide. Obviously, that changes based on impacted population with certain age groups and geographic regions being more prone. The actual case fatality rate (different than mortality rate) in the US for flu is probably close to 0.01%. People throw around the 0.1% number but, as you pointed out above, that includes other ILIs. I don't really remember much of this from school and we didn't focus too much on it when I was on a pandemic response task force. Given that, I've reviewed some scientific journal articles but my understanding is still pretty simplistic.

quote:

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The actual flu death rates are so low that the totals generated each year are augmented by modeling

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That’s exactly right. The two criteria I listed above are used in the model:

1. Pneumonia anywhere on the death certificate

2. ILI (influenza like illness).
- which is defined as a fever greater than 100 plus cough or sore throat

From JAMA

Could be what is considered a “reinfection”. I suspect these people just shed the virus for much longer after recovery than we think.

quote:

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All 4 patients were exposed to the novel 2019 coronavirus through work as medical professionals. Two were male and the age range was 30 to 36 years. Among 3 of the patients, fever, cough, or both occurred at onset. One patient was initially asymptomatic and underwent thin-section CT due to exposure to infected patients. All patients had positive RT-PCR test results and CT imaging showed ground-glass opacification or mixed ground-glass opacification and consolidation. The severity of disease was mild to moderate.

Antiviral treatment (75 mg of oseltamivir taken orally every 12 hours) was provided for the 4 patients. For 3 of the patients, all clinical symptoms and CT imaging abnormalities had resolved. The CT imaging for the fourth patient showed delicate patches of ground-glass opacity. All 4 patients had 2 consecutive negative RT-PCR test results. The time from symptom onset to recovery ranged from 12 to 32 days.

After hospital discharge or discontinuation of quarantine, the patients were asked to continue the quarantine protocol at home for 5 days. The RT-PCR tests were repeated 5 to 13 days later and all were positive. All patients had 3 repeat RT-PCR tests performed over the next 4 to 5 days and all were positive. An additional RT-PCR test was performed using a kit from a different manufacturer and the results were also positive for all patients. The patients continued to be asymptomatic by clinician examination and chest CT findings showed no change from previous images. They did not report contact with any person with respiratory symptoms. No family member was infected

These findings suggest that at least a proportion of recovered patients still may be virus carriers. Although no family members were infected, all reported patients were medical professionals and took special care during home quarantine..

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quote:

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Although data on COVID-19 is sparse and marked by substantial uncertainty, the disease is currently somewhere between 3 and 5 on a five-point scale for transmissibility, and between a 3 to 6 on a seven-point scale for severity. This suggests a moderate or severe pandemic, as shown below.

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LINK

Article that is worth the read, takes a pretty level approach and doesn't try to fan the fire.