re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

quote:

---

No. I'm saying there was some sort of outbreak - whether it escaped from a lab or was a food market deal, whatever, and Xi decided to take a short-term hit to end the HK thing without dealing with international outrage, so they whipped it up a little bit. Also to maybe stick it Trump for the trade war thing, but that is likely as secondary concern.

---

Did Q tell you that in a twitter time stamp?

quote:

---

Did Q tell you that in a twitter time stamp?

---

If you want to concede (which the resort to namecalling typically signifies), then I accept.

But, more gentlemanly would be to "agree to disagree."

I believe this will be gone or effectively "not a story" by Memorial Day. You believe, apparently, that we are headed for a major outbreak, panic, shortages, famine, pestilence... wait - don't let me put words in your mouth - just exactly how do you see this play out over the next 8 to 12 weeks?

quote:

---

Utah now has a confirmed case

---

Not a community transmission, someone that was in quarantine and transferred to Utah.

quote:

---

There’s a good chance we will see quarantine zones in the US.

---

Define "good chance"? 10%? 25%? 50%?

I think it is likely that some areas might close schools and businesses for a couple of weeks if things start turning the wrong way. But "quarantine zones" like something out of the movies? Less than 5%, IMHO.

quote:

---

There’s a good chance we will see quarantine zones in the US. That’s a pretty big deal.

---

Provide the sauce

quote:

---

There’s a good chance we will see quarantine zones in the US. That’s a pretty big deal.

---

No, we won't.

quote:

---

Define "good chance"? 10%? 25%? 50%?

---

I was going to say 50% but that’s a cop out, so I’ll say 60%.

quote:

---

But "quarantine zones" like something out of the movies?

---

It’s happening in several Italian towns. CBS had a medical expert guest on earlier this week who said we should be prepared for them.

quote:

---

You believe, apparently, that we are headed for a major outbreak, panic, shortages, famine, pestilence... wait - don't let me put words in your mouth - just exactly how do you see this play out over the next 8 to 12 weeks?

---

I think it will spread widely throughout the country. If we are smart and are proactive with testing and tracking we can take measures to slow the spread in at risk areas so the healthcare system can function effectively. That may mean quarantines and shutting down localized areas. I’m hopeful that the spread will slow down in the summer making this even less of an issue.

Then once the initial pandemic is over and most of the population has immunity it will turn into a seasonal disease much like other corona viruses. Hopefully mutated into a weaker strain which is what usually happens.

What I said was it has the ability to overwhelm the system if we don’t take the appropriate steps.

quote:

---

It’s actually jumped to a dog in China, which is particularly disturbing.

---

It was a weak positive that they think was contaminated. Basically the dog picked up some virus on its tongue (maybe licked its owner) and that triggered the test.

But hopefully this story stops those frickers from eating dogs.

For those interested for current hospital situations in Northern California:

We have been impacted by high census from the flu season since mid December. Currently ICU pmts are being held in our ED and PACU for days at a time. Most area hospitals have been impacted similarly. Following the announcement of the community acquired case, the ED at both facilities I work at had people waiting outdoors some of which are requesting to be tested. We are still dealing with the sterile gown shortage that happened 2 months ago and masks are scarce. Staffing is impacted as a number of medical professionals work at multiple facilities and many have been asked to stay home.

In the community their is a guarded and cautious feeling but no panic. Softball practices go on and schools are still in session. Lots of emails with information but no change in practice.

Regardless of if this virus is apocalyptic or mild cold symptoms, the impact is here. It will not take much to overwhelm the system on a good day. I think it is a fallacy that american hospitals can handle increased census in a short period of time. We also can't build a 1000 bed hospital in 10 days. Maybe containment is a lost cause and we should focus on only treating/admitting the most ill.