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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 1/29/20 at 4:58 pm to slackster
Posted on 1/29/20 at 4:58 pm to slackster
Here is his commentary from his "research" 
quote:
The bad news is that the confirmed coronavirus cases increased by about 1,500 over the last 24 hours, bringing the total to over 6,000, and unfortunately are still AHEAD of the exponential growth trend “predicted” in the chart below. In mainland China the number of confirmed cases has already surpassed the total number of SARS infections that ever occurred there. And this new virus was discovered in a few more countries yesterday, with human to human transmission being confirmed in at least a few outside of China.
The good news is that the spread between confirmed deaths and confirmed recoveries is (finally and somewhat expectedly) declining—132 deaths to 110 recoveries. But deaths are up 30% since just yesterday which follows another 30% rise the day before.
It’s still too early to tell, but it appears that this virus is far more contagious than SARS though also about a third less deadly. Even so, total fatalities could still dwarf SARS and reach unfathomable numbers if things are not managed well and enough people contract the virus.
If the model below holds (and let’s hope it doesn’t), one percent of the world’s population would be infected by the end of February with more than 1 million people dying as a result. From there you’re just 7 doublings away from essentially everyone being infected and total deaths approaching 100 million. If cases continue doubling about every two days (as present trend suggests), it would only take about two weeks to go from 1 percent of the world’s population to effectively 100 percent.
The best that we can hope for now, I think, is to slow its spread in order to buy more time for one of the above miracles to happen. And the time to do that is NOW. At present trend fully 1% of the world population will be infected by the end of February, and effectively 100% within two or three weeks thereafter. That’s the power of exponential growth—once you get to 1% you’re less than 7 doublings away from 100%.
Here in the US it will likely very soon be time to start taking preventive measures—limiting travel, avoiding crowds, washing hands religiously, avoiding touching the face, sanitizing everything, etc. Plan accordingly.
3
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:00 pm to volfan30
Hell yeah, now we're cooking with peanut oil
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:10 pm to volfan30
Wtf is this shite... who is making that prediction that 1% of the worlds population will have it?
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:13 pm to BallsEleven
LINK
They estimate a R0 of 2.2 which is less than SARs (in the article is says 3 for SARs). I'm just wondering how that is when this has already surpassed SARs in terms of cases in a shorter amount of time?
quote:
Background
The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP.
Methods
We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number.
Results
Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).
Conclusions
On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)
They estimate a R0 of 2.2 which is less than SARs (in the article is says 3 for SARs). I'm just wondering how that is when this has already surpassed SARs in terms of cases in a shorter amount of time?
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:29 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
Gotta love his linear 50% daily increase
Here's an actual analysis of the virus:
Phylogenetic analysis of nCoV-2019 genomes
quote:
This is a brief report outlining a simple phylogenetic analysis of publicly shared genome sequences. It gives some preliminary findings for information purposes is not intended as an academic work. All the data used here is provided by the laboratories listed below through NCBI or GISAID.
quote:
The phylogenetic tree of the currently available complete genomes is given in Figure 1. This shows that there is limited genetic variation in the currently sampled viruses but more recent ones are showing more divergence as is expected for fast evolving RNA viruses. But the lack of diversity is indicative of a relatively recent common ancestor for all these viruses.
quote:
The software package BEAST [2,3] was used to estimate the date of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of the currently available genomes. The MRCA represents the point where the ancestral virus of all the sampled cases was in the same host (whether this was a non-human animal or a human). The rate of evolution of the virus is estimated from the data.
Estimated TMRCA
22-Nov-2019
95% interval
19-Oct-2019 – 17-Dec-2019
Kinda short but interesting read.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:35 pm to bbrownso
quote:
Coronavirus update:
- 7,186 confirmed cases worldwide
- 169 fatalities
- 1,220 in serious/critical condition
- Around 100 treated and released
- Majority of cases in China
- 17 countries reporting cases
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:39 pm to volfan30
One developing line of inquiry is the notion that China's policies regarding urban development have created a perfect storm for the spread of a virus like this.
If you think about it, it's just not sustainable to have massive vertical urban housing development, questionable sanitary standards in many urban centers, a continuous underfunding of public medical care in favor of splashy bridges and towers, and a huge "laborer class" that is compelled by hukou permits to live on the streets in major urban centers. Although it's more laudable of terms of public investment, China's development of the high speed rail system might be another factor contributing to the quick spread of the disease in mainland cities far from Wuhan.
As a result, the frightening transmission statistics we're currently seeing from China probably aren't applicable to Western nations - or places like Japan and Taiwan.
If you think about it, it's just not sustainable to have massive vertical urban housing development, questionable sanitary standards in many urban centers, a continuous underfunding of public medical care in favor of splashy bridges and towers, and a huge "laborer class" that is compelled by hukou permits to live on the streets in major urban centers. Although it's more laudable of terms of public investment, China's development of the high speed rail system might be another factor contributing to the quick spread of the disease in mainland cities far from Wuhan.
As a result, the frightening transmission statistics we're currently seeing from China probably aren't applicable to Western nations - or places like Japan and Taiwan.
This post was edited on 1/29/20 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:41 pm to MikeyFL
Worth noting on numbers above
quote:
This is only from the epicenter, there's going to be a national update at 8 a.m., so the number of cases is going to increase again
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:42 pm to GeauxTigers2020
Possible case here in Arkansas. Location not yet released. Was nice knowing you baws!
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:45 pm to ArkTiger55
rest in peace arky!
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:47 pm to ArkTiger55
All new centuries experience catastrophes around the start of the third decade. This may become a modern day bubonic plague.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:48 pm to volfan30
quote:
Here is his commentary from his "research"
Holy. shite.
This dude would be CivilTiger, Poker Hog, GeauxMedic, etc's hero if he posted here.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:54 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
Gotta love his linear 50% daily increase
I’m assuming he didn’t factor in time, quarantine, and knowledge of the virus into his equation.
Or if he did factor them in, he’s saying they’re worthless.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:55 pm to The Pirate King
Video by British guy living in Wuhan. I keep trying to imagine what his friend looks like under all those layers LINK
Posted on 1/29/20 at 5:57 pm to The Pirate King
From Sky
quote:
China's National Health Commission says 170 people have died and 7,711 people have been infected by the new coronavirus in the country
Posted on 1/29/20 at 6:08 pm to Burhead
quote:
They estimate a R0 of 2.2 which is less than SARs (in the article is says 3 for SARs). I'm just wondering how that is when this has already surpassed SARs in terms of cases in a shorter amount of time?
R0 is not constant across populations.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 6:11 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
’m assuming he didn’t factor in time, quarantine, and knowledge of the virus into his equation.
Or if he did factor them in, he’s saying they’re worthless.
He didn't factor in shite. He plugged in two numbers, calculated the percent change, and then applied it to the next number. A simple drag in excel and voila, 100MM infections.
It's actually ingenious though. A linear rate of growth would underestimate early returns as the cases grow exponentially, so he can argue his conclusions were actually conservative.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 6:22 pm to GeauxTigers2020
quote:
From Sky
quote:
China's National Health Commission says 170 people have died and 7,711 people have been infected by the new coronavirus in the country
That's promising. 7,771 would mark the lowest daily percentage increase since China started reporting daily summaries.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 6:23 pm to slackster
quote:
This dude would be CivilTiger, Poker Hog, GeauxMedic, etc's hero if he posted here.
Please stop with the trolling. Lets keep the thread informative and leave the name calling to a minimum.
Posted on 1/29/20 at 6:23 pm to slackster
quote:
R0 is not constant across populations.
Thank you.
@BNODesk
·
8m
Coronavirus update:
- 7,811 confirmed cases worldwide
- 12,167 suspected cases
- 170 fatalities
- 1,370 in serious/critical condition
- 124 treated and released
- All regions of China reporting cases
- 17 countries reporting cases
This post was edited on 1/29/20 at 6:25 pm
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