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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/26/20 at 5:03 pm to BRIllini07
Posted on 5/26/20 at 5:03 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
And this just in....
Municipal raw sewage samples a really good indicator of impending community outbreak. R-squared 0.99, sewage provides a 7-day lead time vs. test samples as to what's going on.
One of my good friends - not an author there - is a world-class expert in sewage disease detection. Really interesting work, for real. His lab has been going full throttle since early March.
Probably not too surprising, but the Israelis utilize this quite a bit.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 5:07 pm
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Posted on 5/26/20 at 5:15 pm to Scruffy
quote:
There are two separate issues that you are tying together that are not inter-linked.
1. The CDC gave recommendations on patients being returned to nursing homes if they were positive and only if the nursing home holds to precautions that were recommended.
2. Nursing homes should still accept patients that they would normally take in, even if they are from a facility that had or has covid patients.
The separation is that the 2nd applies to individuals who are not/have not tested positive for the virus.
There is even a distinction made within the directive.
The NY government made the determination that nursing homes should accept all individuals even if they were positive, which is not stated in the directive.
They “can” take in patients who were positive, but it doesn’t say that they should.
They even make the recommendation that they should be separated for 14 days if they are simply returning from the hospital.
I get what you are saying but it's certainly not as crystal clear as you are making it seem.
You try to distinguish between "can" and "should" yet the actual documents the CMS/CDC put out specifically uses "can" to answer their own question phrased as "when should" nursing homes take back Covid positive recovering patients from hospitals.
No one on any side has ever argued that they were not to be separated as per CDC/CMS guidelines.
However, if nursing homes not taking back positive recovering patients were as "friggin' obvious" (as the poster above puts it) then why didn't the CDC/CMS just say nursing homes can/should NOT take back these patients?
Now that would have been as crystal clear as you're tying to argue.
Again, this happened at the beginning of the crisis when everyone was scrambling with scant information. Hospitals were already filling up in NY and the CDC (again) was putting out estimates making it seem that the numbers on their way to those hospitals could be more than triple the massive amounts which actually happened.
Of course, there was a definite goal in the hard hit areas: clear hospital beds. I still see no reason based on the CDC/CMS directives that health official reading it should not have told nursing homes that they cannot refuse to take back their recovering patients from hospitals unless they cannot adhere to the CDC/CMS directives for separation. I have not yet seen any evidence/accusations of nursing homes telling State Health that they could not adhere to those guidelines and still being forced to accept patients. Maybe it happened but that's another topic.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 5:41 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 6:57 pm to wm72
Interesting. Spain seems to be having data issues, which has so far resulted in removing nearly 2000 deaths off of their toll.
Some of it sounds like duplication of records and removing cases not confirmed by PCR, but it reads like a big mess overall over there. Things could change.
Though, it sounds like they’re trying to date-correct everything, which is a good thing for seeing the epidemic curve.
Some of it sounds like duplication of records and removing cases not confirmed by PCR, but it reads like a big mess overall over there. Things could change.
Though, it sounds like they’re trying to date-correct everything, which is a good thing for seeing the epidemic curve.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 6:58 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 7:34 pm to Sasquatch Smash
That's why it's difficult to compare numbers from state to state or country to country; different counting and reporting methods just about everywhere you look. Leaders in some European countries, like Italy and Belgium, have stated that their numbers wouldn't stand out if the rest of the EU used the same counting methods. Russia has 360 thousand reported cases and only 3800 deaths. Africa has skated through nearly untouched. Brazil has 6 or 7 times more reported deaths than the rest of South America combined. And everybody knows about the China garbage data, which is closely matched by India.
It varies from state to state in the US, and apparently nobody cares that it's impossible to make sense of the data. Even the CDC changed their criteria, which had the effect of unflattening the curve in midstream. Funny how the rest of the world criticized (justifiably, IMO) China's opaque/worthless data, and then turned around and thoroughly obfuscated their own numbers.
It varies from state to state in the US, and apparently nobody cares that it's impossible to make sense of the data. Even the CDC changed their criteria, which had the effect of unflattening the curve in midstream. Funny how the rest of the world criticized (justifiably, IMO) China's opaque/worthless data, and then turned around and thoroughly obfuscated their own numbers.
This post was edited on 5/26/20 at 7:47 pm
Posted on 5/26/20 at 9:16 pm to wm72
quote:
Now that would have been as crystal clear as you're tying to argue.
I have several friends that work in longterm care facilities, nursing homes (etc..) When the pandemic was first declared and things were being shut down, every single one of them were absolutely clear that they were not going to do anything or be around anyone that may even remotely present a chance of exposing their residents and/or patients to this virus. So whatever directives or guidance was floating around from the CDC or any other agency did seem even a little confusing or unclear to them.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:14 am to wdhalgren
quote:
Africa has skated through nearly untouched.
I've seen some wild and morbid death proselytizing from hardcore shut-it-downers about Africa and India, but the basic facts on the ground never supported that outcome if you actually dig into the data of the virus more than a centimeter deep.
They do have shitty pubic health, data tracking, testing, and whatnot, but...
- The median age in most of those countries is younger than 25 and, in many, is younger than 20
- Life expectancy in most of those places is still in the 50's or early 60's
- They don't have anywhere in the same universe of prevalence of co-morbidities given the diet and lifestyle
- Rotaviruses and HIV will kill - not a model, but a statistical fact - a multiple of whatever Covid could do at its very worst in most of those countries, and most of those deaths will be children and young adults - those people simply do not give a flying frick about this because it ranks like 100th on their list of worries and if they do, they only care so far as it affects their food supply
- Weather does seem to have a decently strong effect on the R value, and virtually all of those places are in warm and humid climates
Basically, I actually kind of buy whatever numbers most of Africa is putting out, and I know some (e.g. South Africa) are implementing severe restrictions, but they've still been basically untouched. This disease was quite uniquely borne to cut at the highly developed Western societies in a way that is damn unusual. It would have been swatted off as nothing even in the U.S. as recently as 100 or so years ago - the demographic profile and cultural attitudes were just that different.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 2:17 am
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:45 am to AbuTheMonkey
South Africa has actually seen deaths start to spike recently as the weather gets colder.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 8:36 am to wm72
quote:
1. The CDC gave recommendations on patients being returned to nursing homes if they were positive and only if the nursing home holds to precautions that were recommended.
2. Nursing homes should still accept patients that they would normally take in, even if they are from a facility that had or has covid patients.
Interestingly, the COVID wing of our main hospital in Athens just filled up yesterday from ONE nursing home in a neighboring county. They had to convert another area for more beds.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 9:17 am to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
- The median age in most of those countries is younger than 25 and, in many, is younger than 20 - Life expectancy in most of those places is still in the 50's or early 60's - They don't have anywhere in the same universe of prevalence of co-morbidities given the diet and lifestyle - Rotaviruses and HIV will kill - not a model, but a statistical fact - a multiple of whatever Covid could do at its very worst in most of those countries, and most of those deaths will be children and young adults - those people simply do not give a flying frick about this because it ranks like 100th on their list of worries and if they do, they only care so far as it affects their food supply
The African numbers may have reasons to be lower than other places, but I don't think they're close to accurate. A lower median age (and life expectancy) doesn't necessarily mean poor populations are less vulnerable to infectious diseases that mainly cause mortality in the sick/elderly in richer countries; it potentially means they're vulnerable at an earlier age.
For example, influenza/pneumonia mortality, like Covid-19, is concentrated in sick and aging first world cohorts. For 2017, the WHO estimated 35,000 influenza/pneumonia deaths in South Africa (median population age of 26.8, LE of 63 yrs), which is one country on the continent with enough infrastructure to gather decent data. You'd have a hard time convincing me that the entire continent, with 1.3 billion people and a rudimentary healthcare system, has only 33% more Covid-19 deaths than Louisiana with 4.6 million people, unless some kind of special immunity is present. But, to your point, they're not the best example for my post above, since the miscounting in most of Africa is more due to poverty than anything else.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 10:41 am
Posted on 5/27/20 at 9:22 am to AbuTheMonkey
A lot of really good points.
It seems covid preys on those that our scientific advances have been able to keep alive.
The media should be using this opportunity to tell us about the perils of obesity, but they are too busy virtue signaling about masks and trying their damnedest to scare people into thinking everyone is at the same risk. Such a shame.
quote:Definitely. Life expectancy in 1920s was in the late 50s-early 60s. As of May 16, in the under 65 age bracket, there were only 16,695 covid/pneumonia deaths (even less covid only deaths). Unfortunately CDC doesn't keep stats on age and obesity, but the word is that the vast majority of the under 65 deaths come from the morbidly obese and diabetics, neither of which were a problem in the 1920s.
It would have been swatted off as nothing even in the U.S. as recently as 100 or so years ago
It seems covid preys on those that our scientific advances have been able to keep alive.
The media should be using this opportunity to tell us about the perils of obesity, but they are too busy virtue signaling about masks and trying their damnedest to scare people into thinking everyone is at the same risk. Such a shame.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 9:47 am to S1C EM
quote:
Interestingly, the COVID wing of our main hospital in Athens just filled up yesterday from ONE nursing home in a neighboring county. They had to convert another area for more beds
What county?
Posted on 5/27/20 at 9:48 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Definitely. Life expectancy in 1920s was in the late 50s-early 60s.
You don't think that age bracket correlates to those that are 75+ in today's society?
Life was certainly much harsher even 100 years ago, but to think fewer people would be susceptible and die because they didn't get as old on average is bad logic, in my opinion.
quote:
but the word is that the vast majority of the under 65 deaths come from the morbidly obese and diabetics
People have been bashing the obese and diabetics in this, but seem to miss that the majority of deaths come from hypertensive people, followed by diabetics. Just looking at Louisiana alone, obesity is fifth on the list of underlying conditions (though, diabetes is a solid number two). That means there a lot of people dying with other comorbidities that aren't also obese. You don't have to be fat to have high blood pressure and diabetes.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 9:55 am
Posted on 5/27/20 at 10:07 am to devils1854
quote:
What county?
Oconee. Technically, one in the area with one of the smallest general population case rates.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 10:16 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:No. 60 year olds back then were just as mobile as 60 year olds today, just a lot less fat back then. Most 75 year olds today would have died already from a plethora of issues, if not for medical advances. However, those medical advances don't help your immune system get better. A 60 year old's immune system in 1920 would handle this much much better than a 75 year old today. The extra 15-20 years of wear and tear on the immune system make the difference.
You don't think that age bracket correlates to those that are 75+ in today's society?
Hypertension may as well be the default state of humanity over the age of 65. Only people who have been ultra vigilant about their health their whole life are hypertension-free in their 70s. So I dont read too much into the hypertension numbers. Obesity and type 2 diabetes go hand in hand. It's about how good your immune system is. At 75 your immune system is on its last leg, and if you've been obese for awhile that strains it even further.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 11:53 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
You don't think that age bracket correlates to those that are 75+ in today's society?
quote:
No. 60 year olds back then were just as mobile as 60 year olds today, just a lot less fat back then.
Compared to 1920, the average person in this country eats a healthier diet, takes more vitamin supplements, works under better conditions with less exposure to harmful chemicals, has better lifelong healthcare/dental care, has medications to help control chronic conditions. I suspect the result of all of that is that people physiologically age more slowly today, conditions like obesity notwithstanding. It may be that a 75 year old in 2020 is physiologically as healthy as a 60 year old was in 1920, in terms of cardiac function, renal function, pulmonary function, immune system function, etc. My guess, and it's a guess because a firm opinion would require a lot of research, is that an average US 60 year old person in 1920 may have been as vulnerable, possibly more vulnerable, to a virus like Covid-19 as an average 75 yo in 2020.
On the downside, in 2020, on average we're a lot less able to provide basic necessities like food/shelter for ourselves, at any age, than we were a hundred years ago; much more dependent on a very complex "system" which is increasingly centrally controlled by imbeciles. If the system breaks down, the floodgates will open, and that worries me more than any virus I've seen yet.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 12:54 pm to wdhalgren
quote:Civilization has been defined as a system of systems.
much more dependent on a very complex "system" which is increasingly centrally controlled by imbeciles.
COVID-19 is exposIng the weak points in our system of systems, of which both the JIT supply chain and a plethora of imbeciles are over represented.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:01 pm to Bullfrog
Some positive(?) news out of Scandinavia this week:
1. Health chief says Norway likely could have controlled infection without lockdown.
2. Norway's infection rates currently too low to justify mass testing.
3. Danish experts downplaying chance of "second wave."
1. Health chief says Norway likely could have controlled infection without lockdown.
2. Norway's infection rates currently too low to justify mass testing.
3. Danish experts downplaying chance of "second wave."
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:28 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
The African numbers may have reasons to be lower than other places, but I don't think they're close to accurate. A lower median age (and life expectancy) doesn't necessarily mean poor populations are less vulnerable to infectious diseases that mainly cause mortality in the sick/elderly in richer countries; it potentially means they're vulnerable at an earlier age.
I don't think they're accurate, either, but they're probably low enough right now that they're basically statistical noise.
quote:
For example, influenza/pneumonia mortality, like Covid-19, is concentrated in sick and aging first world cohorts. For 2017, the WHO estimated 35,000 influenza/pneumonia deaths in South Africa (median population age of 26.8, LE of 63 yrs), which is one country on the continent with enough infrastructure to gather decent data. You'd have a hard time convincing me that the entire continent, with 1.3 billion people and a rudimentary healthcare system, has only 33% more Covid-19 deaths than Louisiana with 4.6 million people, unless some kind of special immunity is present. But, to your point, they're not the best example for my post above, since the miscounting in most of Africa is more due to poverty than anything else.
South Africa is also an older country relative to the rest of SSA.
Another factor that is playing into it for Africa (probably) is the lack of mobility both intra-national and inter-national.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 2:33 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
inter-national
No kidding. Africa compared to other continents doesn't have near as many inbound and outbound flights.
Also, from a lot of countries in Africa, flying to another country even next door may require a connection no matter what airport you depart from. It's not easy getting around there for most people.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 3:07 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
NT
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 3:09 pm
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