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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/27/20 at 3:31 pm to AbuTheMonkey
Posted on 5/27/20 at 3:31 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
they're probably low enough right now that they're basically statistical noise.
Anything's possible, but I think it's likely that low levels of testing and diagnosis is hiding the true level of disease.
quote:
South Africa is also an older country relative to the rest of SSA.
And it's also significantly younger relative to the US population, but still has an influenza/pneumonia estimated death rate that's as high or higher than the US. Bacteria and viruses don't discriminate solely on the basis of age, their impact hits vulnerable populations based on lower ability to fight off or treat the infection, and that's affected by factors other than just age. Africa's population is not as healthy as the US population; they have poor diets and sanitation, they have lower access to healthcare, they have a significant prevalence of HIV (one of the leading causes of death on the continent), which increases risk of death from infectious respiratory diseases. A young population is not equivalent to a healthy population.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 3:49 pm
1
Posted on 5/27/20 at 5:49 pm to wdhalgren
43% Of U.S. Deaths Are From 0.6% Of The Population
It's way more than 43%, too. As the article correctly points out, NY is excluding LTC residents who died in the hospital from their count.
Cuomo's Gameplan:
Step 1: Ship covid patients to nursing homes.
Step 2: When nursing home residents get sick and are about to die, ship them to hospitals and don't record the deaths as from nursing homes.
Step 3: ???????
Step 4: Run for president in 2024!
Dude is a dirtbag of the highest order, in my opinion.
It's way more than 43%, too. As the article correctly points out, NY is excluding LTC residents who died in the hospital from their count.
Cuomo's Gameplan:
Step 1: Ship covid patients to nursing homes.
Step 2: When nursing home residents get sick and are about to die, ship them to hospitals and don't record the deaths as from nursing homes.
Step 3: ???????
Step 4: Run for president in 2024!
Dude is a dirtbag of the highest order, in my opinion.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:34 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Good find.
I think this is exactly why the CDC pegged the IFR at 0.26% last week. If you read the release carefully they say “this is the IFR that should be used in models going forward”
They know that this virus has pretty much ripped through all the close contact places like nursing homes, LTCs, and prisons. Going forward the virus will not have those areas of opportunity.
I think this is exactly why the CDC pegged the IFR at 0.26% last week. If you read the release carefully they say “this is the IFR that should be used in models going forward”
They know that this virus has pretty much ripped through all the close contact places like nursing homes, LTCs, and prisons. Going forward the virus will not have those areas of opportunity.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:47 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:.
They know that this virus has pretty much ripped through all the close contact places like nursing homes, LTCs, and prisons. Going forward the virus will not have those areas of opportunity.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 6:49 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 6:55 pm to evil cockroach
Something else that I find interesting. Look at the seasonality of other coronaviruses. The chart on the right below shows the percent positive tests in the population of the other endemic coronaviruses.
It matches up almost identically with the percent positive COVID cases below at the same time frames.
If this seasonality is the main driving force behind the slowdown (and that’s a big IF, I think it’s definitely playing a role, just not sure how much) we should be good until October before we had to worry about any sort if resurgence. I think by that time we will have a lot more answers.
It matches up almost identically with the percent positive COVID cases below at the same time frames.
If this seasonality is the main driving force behind the slowdown (and that’s a big IF, I think it’s definitely playing a role, just not sure how much) we should be good until October before we had to worry about any sort if resurgence. I think by that time we will have a lot more answers.
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 6:57 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 8:25 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Good find. If that's an accurate representation of Covid-19 behavior, we could see a spike in southern hemisphere cases over the next few months. They may try to maintain lockdowns, but other than for a very brief period you just can't get enough cooperation to keep a large percentage from eventually being exposed.
Meanwhile, I wish the US would stop playing this game of political chicken that could end up endangering the lives of tens or hundreds of millions. I try to stay dispassionate about these things, but honestly believe that the economic and social situation could spiral out of control.
Meanwhile, I wish the US would stop playing this game of political chicken that could end up endangering the lives of tens or hundreds of millions. I try to stay dispassionate about these things, but honestly believe that the economic and social situation could spiral out of control.
Posted on 5/27/20 at 10:33 pm to wdhalgren
Interesting finding regarding immunity. More evidence that maybe antibody tests aren’t picking up everyone who is immune to COVID. There may be other undetectable (by widespread means) levels of immunity.
Pre-print
IgA is just a different type of antibody. It’s typically in the mouth and nose at mucosal sites to fight virus at the point of infection.
I’m suspecting these patients are young and had mild or asymptomatic infections and are defeating the virus without mounting a large antibody response that is detectable by or current antibody tests.
Can these patients still be infected? Does viral load matter?
quote:
Interestingly, some of the SARS-CoV-2-exposed healthcare workers with negative SARS-CoV-2-specific IgA and IgG serum titers had detectable SARS-CoV-2-specific IgA antibodies in their nasal fluids and tears. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2-specific IgA levels in nasal fluids of these healthcare workers were inversely correlated with patient age.
quote:
Interestingly, in15–20%of Sprotein-seronegative individuals, we were able to detect Sprotein-specific IgA antibodies at several mucosal sites. Furthermore, mucosal Sprotein-specific IgA levels inversely correlated with patient age, suggesting increased mucosal antibody responses in younger SARS-CoV-2-exposed individuals
Pre-print
IgA is just a different type of antibody. It’s typically in the mouth and nose at mucosal sites to fight virus at the point of infection.
I’m suspecting these patients are young and had mild or asymptomatic infections and are defeating the virus without mounting a large antibody response that is detectable by or current antibody tests.
Can these patients still be infected? Does viral load matter?
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 5/27/20 at 11:33 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:I just don’t know how they arrived at this estimate. The meta-analysis of IFR estimates is now up to 25 IFR studies worldwide, and they now estimate the IFR at 0.64% (0.71% average across all 25) and the lower bound estimate of all 25 (95% CI) is 0.5%. Only 4 of the 25 are below 0.35%.
I think this is exactly why the CDC pegged the IFR at 0.26% last week. If you read the release carefully they say “this is the IFR that should be used in models going forward”
IFR Meta-analysis
This post was edited on 5/27/20 at 11:35 pm
Posted on 5/28/20 at 1:27 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
I just don’t know how they arrived at this estimate
Well, you are one of the greatest living statisticians...
Posted on 5/28/20 at 2:07 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Only people who have been ultra vigilant about their health their whole life are hypertension-free in their 70s.
Well this just isn’t true
Posted on 5/28/20 at 2:26 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
I just don’t know how they arrived at this estimate.
Because they don’t automatically focus on the negative aspect of every finding. As soon as there is an antibody study you just harp on the false positive problem without even giving any time to the possibility that the antibody studies aren’t detecting every patient who has encountered this virus.
You aren’t considering the fact that nursing homes and long term care facilities have been hit way harder than the general population. That will skew the death rate much higher. Those facilities are much closer to “herd immunity” than the rest of the population which means the IFR will only go down as the virus can attack that vulnerable population as much anymore.
I’m not surprised at all that you can’t figure out how they arrived at that number.
This post was edited on 5/28/20 at 2:29 am
Posted on 5/28/20 at 5:17 am to WaWaWeeWa
Guys, I am doing great. Being forced to wear a mask at work even though I can't get or infect anyone with the virus. It's been busy for me. My mom moved to Florida and left me her house. It's in Glencoe and she only owes ten years on her mortgage. I am in the process of moving but she left everything there so I am trying to get rid of her appliances, furniture etc just to make room for mine. The kids always wanted to live in a two story house with upstairs bedrooms and now they have it. God is good and I am a very blessed man. Now i just got to find someone to buy the home i am living in.
Back on topic. Yesterday I donated blood plasma at a place in Huntsville. Weird process as they drain your blood and a machine removes the plasma and returns the blood back to your body. I actually got paid a little money to do it. The wife also donated.
Looking back, I was the only one out of the seven family members that had the virus that really showed more than moderate symptoms. I was sick enough to be hospitalized but only because my lungs were in bad shape already. I don't know if the malaria meds and zinc worked or if my body fought it off but I have been in worse shape with bacterial pneumonia a few years ago. The virus is certainly something to pay special attention to and people need to wear their masks and wash their hands. Be responsible but the government really took things too far. But in the beginning it did look as if the virus may kill between 2 and 10 percent of infected people. Hindsight.....
Back on topic. Yesterday I donated blood plasma at a place in Huntsville. Weird process as they drain your blood and a machine removes the plasma and returns the blood back to your body. I actually got paid a little money to do it. The wife also donated.
Looking back, I was the only one out of the seven family members that had the virus that really showed more than moderate symptoms. I was sick enough to be hospitalized but only because my lungs were in bad shape already. I don't know if the malaria meds and zinc worked or if my body fought it off but I have been in worse shape with bacterial pneumonia a few years ago. The virus is certainly something to pay special attention to and people need to wear their masks and wash their hands. Be responsible but the government really took things too far. But in the beginning it did look as if the virus may kill between 2 and 10 percent of infected people. Hindsight.....
Posted on 5/28/20 at 7:36 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Because they don’t automatically focus on the negative aspect of every finding. As soon as there is an antibody study you just harp on the false positive problem without even giving any time to the possibility that the antibody studies aren’t detecting every patient who has encountered this virus.
I was beginning to think that he and Korkstand had packed it in since much of the science/news from around the world hasn't been all doom and gloom lately.
Hadn't seen ole buckeye_vol post in a while.
If I recall, in regards to that 0.26 CDC IFR, it's adjusted out to account for IFR stratification by age and proportion of the population in those age groups. It's not an overall IFR. Right?
Posted on 5/28/20 at 7:43 am to Commander Data
quote:
I don't know if the malaria meds and zinc
A Yale epidemiologist with a preprint saying that hydroxychloroquine should be allowed for outpatient treatment.
quote:
Early outpatient illness is very different than later hospitalized florid disease and the treatments differ. Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is
irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy
This is what many of us have been saying in regards to all the "negative" studies about the drug.
This post was edited on 5/28/20 at 7:59 am
Posted on 5/28/20 at 7:55 am to Sasquatch Smash
LSU health center involved in important autopsy results published in the Lancet
LINK
I’m thinking that these micro emboli to the lungs are the main reason the respiratory issues seem different than normal viral pneumonia and may be the reason why ventilators weren’t the most ideal solution.
If this is true it’s essentially a pulmonary embolism and explains some of the rapid decompensations we saw. Anticoagulation (blood thinning) may be a key component and it’s something we can do very easily once we find what is effective.
These are the type of game changers that likely don’t involve a new medicine or vaccine.
Promising. For me the key question is, what came first the chicken or the egg? When you are extremely sick it can lead to coagulation problems. So did the virus itself cause the clots or did people who got very very sick from the virus then develop clots as a response to so much inflammation?
LINK
quote:
“We found that the small vessels and capillaries in the lungs were obstructed by blood clots and associated hemorrhage that significantly contributed to decompensation and death in these patients,” says Dr. Richard Vander Heide, senior author in the study Director of Pathology Research at LSU Health New Orleans School of Medicine. “We also found elevated levels of D-dimers -- fragments of proteins involved in breaking down blood clots. What we did not see was myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle, that early reports suggested significantly contributes to death from COVID-19.”
I’m thinking that these micro emboli to the lungs are the main reason the respiratory issues seem different than normal viral pneumonia and may be the reason why ventilators weren’t the most ideal solution.
If this is true it’s essentially a pulmonary embolism and explains some of the rapid decompensations we saw. Anticoagulation (blood thinning) may be a key component and it’s something we can do very easily once we find what is effective.
These are the type of game changers that likely don’t involve a new medicine or vaccine.
Promising. For me the key question is, what came first the chicken or the egg? When you are extremely sick it can lead to coagulation problems. So did the virus itself cause the clots or did people who got very very sick from the virus then develop clots as a response to so much inflammation?
This post was edited on 5/28/20 at 7:57 am
Posted on 5/28/20 at 7:56 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
If this is true it’s essentially a pulmonary embolism and explains some of the rapid decompensations we saw. Anticoagulation (blood thinning) may be a key component and it’s something we can do very easily once we find what is effective.
we've been aggressively anticoagulating covid patients for a bit now. I think we are seeing improved outcomes but just my opinion.
Posted on 5/28/20 at 7:57 am to Sasquatch Smash
your pdf isnt loading, please fix as I really want to see it
Posted on 5/28/20 at 8:00 am to Tiguar
quote:
your pdf isnt loading, please fix as I really want to see it
Fixed. Was trying to link directly to the PDF, but it appears the link times out. So, it now links to the Journal's preview page and from there you can download the full PDF.
Posted on 5/28/20 at 8:04 am to Tiguar
quote:
we've been aggressively anticoagulating covid patients for a bit now. I think we are seeing improved outcomes but just my opinion.
It’s an interesting hypothesis and I think your observation is more than anecdotal at this point. Hopefully we continue to make progress on this front. It’s something we should easily be able to fine tune and hopefully continue to drive mortality down.
Posted on 5/28/20 at 8:27 am to Sasquatch Smash
thanks. I highly suspect history is going to judge the left and media harshly for downplaying HCQ.
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