re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

tiger91, please check the owlie thread at the top of the OT, approx page 46, whereby rouge is asking for higher quality food options for owlie while he is in a rehab facility (sounds like a SNF). Thanks!

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A new study out of Brazil today comparing spread in different cities says that for places where the average temperature was under 78 degrees F, each degree F that temperature increased resulted in a 2.7% decrease in spread.

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There is a mounting body of evidence that the virus doesn't really spread outside or in indoor areas that people typically have a short residence time (grocery store, home improvement store, etc). The spread is clustered around office buildings, restaurants, churches, etc. and then those infections result in near saturation in the homes of the infected. There is obviously a seasonality component to the spread of this but I wonder how much the data is being skewed by the various mitigation efforts that have been deployed around the world? We'll find out in a few short months.

I'm in the "there will be a 2nd wave" boat but I feel like most areas have demonstrated the ability to handle the 1st wave. I guess the only wildcard is what does this look like when stacked on top of flu season? Hopefully, the lessons learned from this first wave will result in a commonsense approach to dealing with this and not an emotional overreaction that snaps us back to the excessive mitigation efforts that we have seen over the past few months.

Also, there are a number of wildcards out there that we still don't know enough about. What is the true level of exposure needed for herd immunity? What role does exposure to the other endemic coronaviruses play in the spread? What about schools? Those factors will play a role in what this looks like the Fall.

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Incorporate that into overhead lights and you don't have to worry about office buildings.

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But you would have to worry about a serious sun burn

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I guess the only wildcard is what does this look like when stacked on top of flu season?

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According to the CDC, this year’s flu season, especially flu A, peaked in February. Flu was still pretty active throughout March. CoviD will likely have peaked most areas in the USA in mid-April.

This already coincided with flu season.

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I would need to see the research. UV light works by breaking the DNA, well in this case the RNA but same principle. You would have to explain to me how it’s going to destroy the viral RNA of virus particles in the air without causing any damage to your DNA or eyes while sitting under it 8+ hours a day.

I’m guessing it’s a gimmick that doesn’t work or is dangerous.

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Saw an article about it a while back. I'll have to try to find it.

Not the article I saw but here's a PDF

LINK

Apparently the shorter wavelengths can't penetrate far enough into mammals to cause harm, but pathogens are small enough for the UV to destroy.

A banking study comparing consumer spending in Denmark (which shut everything down early) to Sweden (which only had mild restrictions) shows that the arrival of the virus dropped spending 25% in Sweden and 29% in Denmark.

There are so many people who have argued viciously that "the government shut down the economy." It wasn't true in Europe and it wasn't true here either. The freaking virus shut down the economy.

The countries that shut down the fastest are going to end up being the ones with the least economic damage, because they will be the ones who recover and reopen fastest.

LINK

I understand that, but as we all know, Lowes and Home Depot sure didn't show a reduction in customers.

Is this a new talking point; mandatory closures and stay at home orders didn't actually hurt the economy? I'll have to 100% disagree with that theory, some statistics from Sweden and Denmark notwithstanding. When the govt forces millions of businesses to close their doors and lay off all their employees, and issues stay at home orders for all except essential activities (with law enforcement standing by to punish violators), the impact of that goes far beyond what would have otherwise occurred with this particular virus outbreak. Throw in constant fearmongering in the mainstream media and an already overleveraged financial system and you get a crash.

Pandemics are not that uncommon and they can have an economic impact, but that normally depends on the virulence of the disease which in turn affects the level of fear in the general population. Covid-19 poses low risk in the large majority of cases, is predominantly a threat to the elderly and a significant chunk of overall mortality is occuring in elder living facilities. Not the sort of thing that has historically caused great economic disruption, because people are resilient and pragmatic about continuing their lives and earning their upkeep in the face of uncertainty. There would have been fear, but it would've been quickly replaced by business as usual when people realized that there was no mass die-off happening.

This time the govt response and media have magnified and accelerated the toll. So instead of a mild recession, the economic impact of this one will reverberate for a long time as many of these small businesses never return. Disruptions in delivery of even govt related services like healthcare and education will have a long lasting impact on our future health and prosperity. Central banks will end up monetizing tens of trillions dollars equivalent of debt, destroying whatever vestige of free market price signals remained from their previous distortions. The economic impact from all of that will eventually make the actual Covid-19 disease a footnoted prelude to something much worse.