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4
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:30 am to Kujo
quote:
How does the 1950 flu mortality rate compare to Corona today?
60,000 deaths would be 18 per 100k.
200,000 deaths would be 60 per 100k.
In 1957 there were 80 per 100k for the flu.
In 1918 there were 1750 per 100k.
If we did nothing, we would have 180 per 100k or less before reaching herd immunity.
133 (160 in Louisiana)per 100k die every year from smoking with an average age of mortality 4 years younger than the average age of mortality for covid.
I can choose to buy cigarettes today, but I can't choose to get my haircut from someone who chooses to work.
Kids now under 18 and alive in Louisiana who will ultimately die prematurely from smoking-98,000
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 9:46 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:40 am to Shaun176
quote:
60,000 deaths would be 18 per 100k.
200,000 deaths would be 60 per 100k.
I’m tired of both sides of the argument for Flu comparison...
Yes, this isn’t the flu, seems to be more contagious...
But yes, this may not be as deadly, even without a vaccine like there is for the flu.
It can go both ways...
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 9:41 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:44 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I'm not sure what your point is I'm not saying we should've never shut down. We've done the right things up until this point and I think the economy will recover. But it is time to phase things back online. Shouldn't be hard to do if we do a handful of things: - Continue to isolate the vulnerable - Ramp up both C19 and antibody testing to test everyone in the country so we can isolate and trace (and prioritize risk based on herd immunity) - Continue social distancing for those out and about - Continue working from home when possible - Open businesses but have 50% capacity rules - No large gathering type events like concerts and sports where social distancing is impossible That should be done regionally based on data and should start probably now, but I'll take May 1st. If we go until the end of June as a country with this shutdown, the damage will be exponentially worse
In full agreement. Wasn't disagreeing with you, but there seems to be some of the OT (not you) that feels that if we just let corona do it's thing the economy would be without impact. I was just staying that no matter which path we took - once that disease left China both public health and the economy would have negative impacts (with some form of sliding scale on each pending actions taken).
Not an easy equation with next to no data on a novel virus and no precedent for how 330,000,000 people in 2020 would act under varying degrees of stress and quarantine actions.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:53 am to Lsut81
quote:
I’m tired of both sides of the argument for Flu comparison...
I am comparing it to smoking, which the data shows is more deadly, and an extreme burden on our health system.
44000 people die from second hand smoking every year including 400 infants.
I can buy cigarettes today.
The CDC recommends nobody smokes, but the government has not followed their recommendations and outlawed it. Yet, we have to follow all CDC coronavirus recommendations or we would be reckless.
It is hypocritical to destroy our economy over coronavirus and not outlaw tobacco products.
Tobacco already causes all of the worst case scenarios of coronavirus each year and then will do it again next year.
As a society we have to protect your 90 year old grandma, while we look the other way when you expose your 2 year old to second hand smoke that will cause them to have asthma and lead to their premature death or allow a pregnant woman to smoke.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 10:05 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:56 am to Shaun176
quote:
The CDC recommends nobody smokes, but the government has not followed their recommendations and outlawed it. Yet, we have to follow all CDC coronavirus recommendations or we would be reckless.
I agree, it’s hypocritical what they have done for this as opposed to other things.
Personal responsibility
Posted on 4/10/20 at 9:57 am to Kujo
quote:
How does the 1950 flu mortality rate compare to Corona today?
Unmitigated - not known, this thing isn't allowed to spread freely
Mitigated - looks like it just adds a second "normal" flu season to places like Louisiana, less in either rural or more controlled areas (Cali), New York is getting sent straight back to 1953
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:01 am to Kujo
What happened in 1997 and 1998? Seems like vaccine would have been in play for many people. Wrong strain for the vaccine?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:02 am to Shaun176
quote:
I am comparing it to smoking, which the data shows is more deadly, and an extreme burden on our health system.
44000 people die from second hand smoking every year including 400 infants.
I can buy cigarettes today.
The CDC recommends nobody smokes, but the government has not followed their recommendations and outlawed it. Yet, we have to follow all CDC coronavirus recommendations or we would be reckless.
The problem with all of this is that it is actually really hard to pin down what kills people. I can gin up a study that shows x millions of people are killed by air pollution from cars every year (near roadway exposure is something that I have actually worked on in the past). If you did a lit review of all the causes of death and then added up all the estimated deaths from each cause, then it would probably end the world
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:05 am to Shaun176
quote:
I am comparing it to smoking, which the data shows is more deadly, and an extreme burden on our health system.
44000 people die from second hand smoking every year including 400 infants.
I can buy cigarettes today.
The CDC recommends nobody smokes, but the government has not followed their recommendations and outlawed it. Yet, we have to follow all CDC coronavirus recommendations or we would be reckless.
It is hypocritical to destroy our economy over coronavirus and not outlaw tobacco products.
Tobacco already causes all of the worst case scenarios of coronavirus.
You know my position about re-opening, but I want to play devil's advocate here anyway because I'm bored on a Friday morning and loved debate as a youth.
My elderly parents and relatives can avoid smoking and and damage from second hand smoke easily. It has an odor, it is visible, it is 100% avoidable in 2020.
You can greatly decrease your chances of getting this virus with precautions, but you can't eliminate the chances. Furthermore, damage from smoking is done over years and years. The time frame for this makes it a totally different animal. Those are two big differences so the comparison isn't holding up to me.
I will repeat though, I think we need to open it back up and take the precautions I mentioned on the previous page.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:05 am to rds dc
The next few days will be interesting to watch as the daily totals come in. The IHME models shows the US getting over the hump this weekend and then rapid improvement over the next two weeks.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:07 am to rds dc
quote:
The next few days will be interesting to watch as the daily totals come in. The IHME models shows the US getting over the hump this weekend and then rapid improvement over the next two weeks.
And the public will see this and the national conversation will start to be more and more about re-opening.
Even the liberal states will start to feel the pressure from the people.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:17 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
And the public will see this and the national conversation will start to be more and more about re-opening.
Trump already assembling group to put return in motion
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:21 am to wm72
Why don't they just cremate them?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:27 am to S1C EM
quote:
I would agree with you if I thought everyone was as well-informed and intelligent as you and others here. Truth is, we are ALL surrounded by idiots. My wife has another week of quarantine while I handle the house and kids and work by myself because an idiot COVID-positive patient walked into their office with no appointment and blatantly lied about her condition and symptoms during screening. Unfortunately, I wager that at LEAST 80% of the country falls into this slot. You’re asking STUPID people to make INTELLIGENT decisions. I think May 1st should be the goal and it should be a slow, meticulously managed process.
As for regional implementation......I don’t trust our idiot governor who said less than a week ago that he was just made aware of asymptomatic transmission 24-hours prior. Do you trust yours?
This post was edited on 4/10 at 9:17 am
I agree, especially now that the CDC is saying positive asymptomatic people can work as long as they have no fever!!!!! I can't even. If I did not know better, I'd think the CDC is trying to make this worse!
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 10:29 am
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:29 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
And the public will see this and the national conversation will start to be more and more about re-opening.
Even the liberal states will start to feel the pressure from the people.
One of my major concerns with that model is that it is too optimistic on the back end and resolves the issue too fast. So, if we don't see the curve flatten as fast as the model shows then people will point to the front end and argue that the model busted low b/c the measures were working. Then they will argue that we need to maintain or even increase these current restrictions to flatten the curve more like what the model is showing. Hopefully, Trump's team has already discussed this and will be ready to argue for open things back up, even if they aren't improving as fast as some of the various models show things should be improving.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 10:30 am to S1C EM
quote:
Ummmm.......you sure about that, boss? Because loan applications under the CARES Act for small businesses have already topped $100B. Do you assume they aren’t getting that money? Individuals are to begin getting checks as early as next week.
I can speak from first hand experience on the CARES act. The program is great on paper, but as with any government program, and especially one they are trying to stand up so quickly, there have been a lot of speed bumps. One business I am affiliated with that has revenue in the millions was approved for their loan this week, but has not seen funds yet. They don't plan to use the money unless absolutely necessary; just take the loan and repay unless they need it to keep paying their employees. The other business I am affiliated with is much smaller and submitted their application last Saturday, the first day the bank was taking applications. The bank is completely overwhelmed right now and hasn't provided any feedback yet. Fortunately this business has sufficient savings to weather a short period of time. They are an essential business and have remained open but revenues are way down. Employees were given an option to stay working or be laid off so they could collect unemployment but they all wanted to keep working, just with many precautions in place and reduced hours.
I don't have any doubt the money will eventually arrive but there is a lot of red tape. The banks are afraid they will be on the hook if they screw up the application or if the applications are fraudulent so they are being very cautious, even though they are government backed loans. This makes sense given how new everything is. Also legislation in and of itself is not a government program. Lawyers and administrators get involved and have to interpret the legislation in order to put a functional program in place.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:03 am to rds dc
quote:
One of my major concerns with that model is that it is too optimistic on the back end and resolves the issue too fast. So, if we don't see the curve flatten as fast as the model shows then people will point to the front end and argue that the model busted low b/c the measures were working. Then they will argue that we need to maintain or even increase these current restrictions to flatten the curve more like what the model is showing. Hopefully, Trump's team has already discussed this and will be ready to argue for open things back up, even if they aren't improving as fast as some of the various models show things should be improving.
Yeah, I think that May begins the reopening policy, but with hybrid measures in pace. The vulnerable untested people will still need to be quarantined, but hopefully the rest of us can start reopening.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:07 am to Kujo
quote:
Metro Public Health Department officials announced today a total number of 1,224 confirmed cases of coronavirus COVID-19 in Nashville/Davidson County, an increase of 84 cases in the past 48 hours. The estimated number of cases reported yesterday (1,231) have been adjusted after further review and confirmation.
The confirmed cases range in age from 2 months to 94 years.
There has been a total of thirteen (13) deaths in Davidson County.
Forty-four (44) individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19 remain hospitalized, and 204 individuals have recovered from the virus. The remaining cases are self-isolating at home and have mild and manageable symptoms.
The MPHD COVID-19 Hotline received 186 calls on Thursday, April 9, 2020.
Total number of Cases: 1,224
New cases (48 hours): 84
Cases by sex
Male: 570
Female: 619
Unknown: 35
Posted on 4/10/20 at 11:11 am to Stevo
quote:
Yeah, I think that May begins the reopening policy, but with hybrid measures in pace. The vulnerable untested people will still need to be quarantined, but hopefully the rest of us can start reopening.
I think the argument could be made now to start opening rural areas. If people drive to a shop, can maintain social distancing on the work floor, and can maintain good hygiene, etc. then why shouldn't that be open for work today?
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