Comparing predictions to the final results of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA

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The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

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TWC

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The forecast figures: We expect 19 storms to form in 2025, nine of which will become hurricanes and four of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, according to the outlook released Thursday. That's above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms. It's just a couple of hurricanes shy of 2024's total of 11 hurricanes.

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More from TWC:

Still a greater U.S. threat: More important than the number of storms in the entire basin is where they go, or how many may threaten land.

"Since 1950, 23% of all North Atlantic hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S.," wrote Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. NOAA's Hurricane Research Division calculated an average of about one hurricane made landfall in the U.S. each year, based on data from 1851 through 2022.

But Crawford's team found hints that the threat could be larger this season. That's because long-range computer models suggest the pattern of winds aloft that guide hurricanes could steer more toward the coast again in 2025.


Actual:

Seasonal statistics
Total depressions 13
Total storms 13
Hurricanes 5
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+) 4