re: China Makes Preparations for Evergrande’s Demise; prepare for a ‘possible storm’

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This Chinese RE is legit shite and falls apart in 5 years.

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What I find interesting is every time there is a sudden rise in copper it's because China is buying all of it up to build houses. One time romex wire was up 300% due to this.

Serpentza was always a great view on YouTube about this. He's probably got a lot to say right now. I made a threat a while back about how their buildings fall apart. They just literally were trying to build as many units as possible with the worst construction methods which would make people buy more units.

Foreign investors may get screwed on some stuff but this is going to frick up China’s whole business model.

Evergrande gets land from the municipalities in exchange for developing it and using that money to pay for the land. And a lot of their property that is actually moving is presold apartments for individuals which may never get built now.


Likely fall out will extend past real estate simply because of other businesses they are involved in but this is going to burst the bubble on Chinese real estate and will likely take out a number of smaller Chinese developers with it as tons of distressed properties hit the market at a discount, which is unheard of over there.

And they were apparently doing it through real estate Ponzi schemes.

ah, so pretty much straight up what it sounds like. i;ve been out of the loop.

i remember reading some articles about chinese real estate like ten years ago that hinted this is a real possiblity. maybe this is just me not paying good enough attention, but it seems like that was largely ignored the last couple years.

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Also possible that the money goes to safer markets like the US in response. Foreign investment into RE here has been almost overwhelming in some larger cities in the US and CA. That might pick up.

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Or it could unravel a series of debt defaults around the globe like in 2008. It just depends on how far down this bad debt goes and is it confined to China or global.

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Foreign investment into RE here has been almost overwhelming in some larger cities in the US and CA. That might pick up.

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we need to do what candada did ( ) and freeze this for a few years and do some soul searching.

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B Freeman will not like this.

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What about IP Freely?

Better investments than in China but it is still real estate and a lot of real estate is fricked up due to Covid migrations.

Markets like Texas, Tennessee, Florida, etc are flourishing. Markets like NYC are in trouble simply because no one wants to live in an area where it is so expensive and the quality of life isn’t what it was three years ago.


If some of these investors start selling, they can recoup their investments.

If all of them start selling, it floods the market and we end up with aftershocks here.

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Yes. I would bet many wealthy Chinese have known this for a while which is why they bought so much RE in Canada and parts of the USA instead of in their own country. They wanted to get their money out of China which is why they literally buy houses outside of China and just let them sit vacant.

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Also this provides them with

1. Assets that the Chinese government can't seize

2. A place to live if they ever defect

One thing I learned watching serpentza is that you don't "buy" housing in China. You do like a 100-year lease or something. You still don't really own anything and it can be taken at will by the government. Buying abroad in western countries is a wise investment for them.