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re: CDC Still Claim Vaccine is 2x More Effective Than Natural Immunity (Israel Report Ignored)

Posted on 9/30/21 at 1:40 pm to
Posted by dallastigers
Member since Dec 2003
5767 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

Both studies say that Vax + NI is best


The Israel prior plus 1 dosage will be interesting once they can implement the same 90 day interval for the 1 dosage sample like was done with the other groups and then again when they can compare at least 6 months after the one group got the 1 dosage (especially of infections were within a month or 2 of each on in groups).

Due to the below all the prior infected with 1 dosage of vaccine had their dosage within 3 months of at least the start of study including some possibly just 7 days before.
quote:

…had both a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection by February 28, 2021 and received one dose of the vaccine by May 25, 2021, at least 7 days before the study period. On March 2, 2021, The Israeli Ministry of Health revised its guidelines and allowed previously SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals to receive one dose of the vaccine, after a minimum 3-month-interval from the date of infection


Also studying the actual antibodies after 1 dosage versus the 2 previously infected have been getting in the US along with interval between infection/recovery and vaccination(s) to compare and to also compare to those with natural immunity would be interesting.

Not sure if fairly healthy individuals with natural immunity should have gotten one dosage without maybe some testing to show weak or very low antibody levels and/or 6 or more months having past since their infection, but prior infected doing the double dose within 3 or 4 weeks of each other here and no longer pushing even waiting 90 days from infection (outside of certain conditions) seems at a minimum to be a waste of money & resources but also at least a small possibility of narrowing the broader immunity they were developing instead of boosting it.


Posted by Brettesaurus Rex
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2009
38259 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 2:12 pm to
So why wouldn’t you want to get a shot that lessens the likelihood of getting an extreme case? Then, if you do get it, its not as bad, AND you still get the natural immunity. What’s the argument against that?
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22400 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

So why wouldn’t you want to get a shot that lessens the likelihood of getting an extreme case?


Lessen the likelihood of something that is already very unlikely to happen?
Posted by dallastigers
Member since Dec 2003
5767 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 3:58 pm to
This is current one. Not really a study as much as states weekly summary with various data including some not matching as some use state and some use cdc estimates.

https://oklahoma.gov/content/dam/ok/en/covid19/documents/weekly-epi-report/2021.09.29%20Weekly%20Epi%20Report.pdf

The one thing i am not clear on is if reinfections or eligible for reinfection exclude those who got vaccinated or not. Breakthrough term has always been about fully vaccinated regardless of previously infected, but the Reinfection footnote doesn’t specifically mention vaccines one way or the other. If vaccinated excluded didn’t see how or if reinfections before vaccines are accounted for. Though it would seem very strange with last column comparison between the rates if reinfections did include previously infected who also are vaccinated.

Regardless eligible for reinfections are older - start at least 3 months back until I guess the beginning compared to fully vaccinated numbers starting at least 2 weeks back until I guess December.

The breakthrough rate increasing much faster is what’s more alarming. Some of the may 2021 vaccinated numbers have gone over 6 months since vaccination as of what’s listed on September line, but almost 540,000 vaccinated persons have also been added since May numbers. Breakthrough rate over 14 times higher now than in May with reinfection rate just over 3 times higher since May.
This post was edited on 9/30/21 at 4:22 pm
Posted by HamzooReb
Utah
Member since Mar 2013
12144 posts
Posted on 9/30/21 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

So why wouldn’t you want to get a shot that lessens the likelihood of getting an extreme case?


Because I am not at risk of getting an extreme case. It's really simple.
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22400 posts
Posted on 10/1/21 at 8:31 am to
quote:


The breakthrough rate increasing much faster is what’s more alarming. Some of the may 2021 vaccinated numbers have gone over 6 months since vaccination as of what’s listed on September line, but almost 540,000 vaccinated persons have also been added since May numbers. Breakthrough rate over 14 times higher now than in May with reinfection rate just over 3 times higher since May.



The more I look at the graphic the more I believe it actually shows the strength of NI and the relatively quick waning of vaccine immunity.

Let’s assume Ok’s surges were similar to La. La had surges in Mar 20, Jul 20, Nov 20, and June 21. That means a lot of the NI was from early mid 20 to late 2020 early 2021.

The vaccine became readily available to all in Feb/Mar 2021 so vast majority of vaccinations were in Mar/April/May 2021.

The graphic shows that starting in May, the vaccine provides much better immunity but starts to quickly decrease from month to month (especially when Delta becomes prevalent) whereas the NI immunity stays much more stable with a much smaller increase in re-infection rate. In just a few months the gap is narrowed considerably while also knowing the NI immunity folks probably contracted Covid several months BEFORE the vaccinated folks received the vaccine.

TLDR - Vaccine super boosts the immune system at first but seems to wane much quicker than the immune response of the folks who actually had Covid.
This post was edited on 10/1/21 at 8:32 am
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