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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...
Posted on 7/3/24 at 12:49 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 7/3/24 at 12:49 pm to LegendInMyMind
What’s the Jamaican hurricane model HMON showing?
1
Posted on 7/3/24 at 12:49 pm to Thracken13
quote:
so we could do it
Posted on 7/3/24 at 12:50 pm to deltaland
HWRF is much weaker this run
Posted on 7/3/24 at 12:51 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
Is there any probability maps where the think the most hurricanes will form? Central America storms that come off seem to always want to hit Gulf Coast. Just curious at what they're projecting where the most storms will form and where they have probabilities on landfall. I know it's accurate still interesting to see.
Noaa has this as a prediction but there isnt anything that I know of to predict more than that.
HTS has planned on responding to up to 3 events. We respond in LA, MS, AL,GA, and Florida down to Tampa. Basically 7-8 hour drive from Tuscaloosa. We only have funds for 2.5 trips but we are still raising funds. A single trip costs us between $22,000-$25,000 dollars.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 12:56 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
alphaandomega
Are you able to provide any links to fundraising? I’d be interested in learning more about that.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 12:57 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
He may be thinking that Cozumel is Isla but Isla doesn't even show up on that map since it's so small.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:02 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
Rita might be the biggest cluster frick of a traffic jam in the history of this country
it fricking sucked. Hot as balls and parked all day on the interstate.
truly bizarre to see Houston so empty after we turned around and made it back home 36 or so hours later.
What part of Houston are you in that you decided to evacuate? I will never evacuate Cypress, even though it looked like a war zone with all the trees down in my 40 year old neighborhood. I need to stay off the roads and freeways to allow those who live south of I-10 and even closer to the coast to get out.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:06 pm to rds dc
Man, that satellite loop looks so bad for Jamaica. Any storm surge projections?
Also, is that mess behind Beryl another wave or just some cast off storms?
Also, is that mess behind Beryl another wave or just some cast off storms?
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:14 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
Also, is that mess behind Beryl another wave or just some cast off storms?
Another wave that's been tailing it for a while. Beryl's kinda sucking up the energy so development chances have decreased for it in recent days.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:18 pm to lsuman25
quote:
HWRF is much weaker this run
Weakening trend across the board. Only a few outlier ensembles take this up the Texas coast. As of now, the NHC track looks locked in.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:18 pm to LegendInMyMind
Yeah, I see they have some on CSU
LINK
They have an ACE at 210 for the season which quickly looking up seems among one of the more active wise for seasons. Seems to be behind 2005, 1995, 2004 and 2017. Interesting. Kinda already seeing that with abnormal conditions for this storm. So they're saying it's going to be active and dangerous.
LINK
They have an ACE at 210 for the season which quickly looking up seems among one of the more active wise for seasons. Seems to be behind 2005, 1995, 2004 and 2017. Interesting. Kinda already seeing that with abnormal conditions for this storm. So they're saying it's going to be active and dangerous.
This post was edited on 7/3/24 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:21 pm to rds dc
Euro comes in Nothern Mexico. I will be curious though in the next 6-8 hours, does Beryl stay south of Jamica or come fully on land, and if it does how much disruption and any erratic movement that could cause.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:25 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
They have an ACE at 210 for the season which quickly looking up seems among one of the more active wise for seasons. Seems to be behind 2005, 1995, 2004 and 2017. Interesting. Kinda already seeing that with abnormal conditions for this storm. So they're saying it's going to be active and dangerous.
You'll find a bunch of seasonal forecasts as far as activity goes, and Philip Klotzbach and CSU is one of the best, but you won't find much of any forecasts for where specifically that activity could occur.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:31 pm to LSURoss
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:34 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
Are you able to provide any links to fundraising? I’d be interested in learning more about that.
Here to Serve Website (allows for secure donations)
Checks can be mailed to our treasurer at:
2444 Brandonwood Road,
Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35406
Facebook link
?Here to Serve Inc. is a 501(C)(3). 100% of donations are used for food, fuel and supplies. No donations are used for salaries or any other purpose.
In the last few years we have been to:
Deridder, Lake Charles and Prarieville LA (hurricanes)
Amory MS (tornado).
Lillian AL (hurricane), Sawyerville and Selma AL (tornados).
Madison FL (hurricane)
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:39 pm to alphaandomega
Didn’t I read that the worst of the winds are within 45 miles of the eye? Latest 2:00 advisory seems to indicate it’s about 45 miles off the coast. Jamaica will still get a lot of wind but perhaps it won’t be a direct hit.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:42 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
Is there any probability maps where the think the most hurricanes will form? Central America storms that come off seem to always want to hit Gulf Coast. Just curious at what they're projecting where the most storms will form and where they have probabilities on landfall. I know it's accurate still interesting to see.
While you're not going to get one for a particular season, here's a good breakdown for typical development areas by month: LINK
If you scroll up from that section, you'll also find historical points of origins and paths by timeframe.
This post was edited on 7/3/24 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:43 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:44 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Great look there. Nasty.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 1:50 pm to LivingstonLaw
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