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re: Baton Rouge Homes At Risk from Hurricane Storm Surge
Posted on 6/1/17 at 4:44 pm to Roscoe
Posted on 6/1/17 at 4:44 pm to Roscoe
It's because a strong category 3 hurricane, coming in at the right speed from the right angle, will push enough surge into Pontratrain then into Maurepas, which will lead to MAJOR backwater flooding on the Amite and subsequently the Comite.
It would, at minimum, be a repeat of August and at worse, be 5-10 times as bad.
The worst case scenario would involve this happening 2-4 days after a prolonged 10-15 inches of rain event over EBR, Livingston, and into the Felicianas.
That scenario would make Katrina look like child's play.
It can happen, it's just very, very unlikely.
It would, at minimum, be a repeat of August and at worse, be 5-10 times as bad.
The worst case scenario would involve this happening 2-4 days after a prolonged 10-15 inches of rain event over EBR, Livingston, and into the Felicianas.
That scenario would make Katrina look like child's play.
It can happen, it's just very, very unlikely.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 4:45 pm
1
Posted on 6/1/17 at 4:48 pm to ssgtiger
quote:
Except that isn't what happened
The backing up of the diversion canal and the drainage features the feed it didn't cause back flooding?
Posted on 6/1/17 at 4:49 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
I would imagine they're basing all this on the storm surge backing up Maurepas, Pontchartrain, and the diversion canal thus creating an situation similar to the 2016 flood.
But a storm that caused a major surge to go through Lake P and into Maurepas would be centered further to the east, around New Orleans. So BR would be on the west side (drier side) of the hurricane.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 4:51 pm to upgrayedd
Well, I think all would agree its a pretty poorly written article since it gave very little explanation as to why 100K homes would be at risk when BTR is more than 100 miles inland.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 4:52 pm to poops_at_parties
quote:
It would, at minimum, be a repeat of August and at worse, be 5-10 times as bad.
5-10 times as bad? I don't believe you.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 4:58 pm to BoostAddict
quote:
5-10 times as bad? I don't believe you.
In the scenario I described, I would be right. Imagine all that rainwater trying to drain down the Amite and Comite rivers at the same time a 17-20' surge races up the Amite from Lake Maurepas. Homes that had 4 feet of water in August would be completely under water. Roof and all.
Keep in mind I'm not saying the hurricane would have to be a once-in-a-lifetime type of hurricane like Katrina was. It would simply have to come in at the right angle at the right time. Such as at high tide and 2 days after a prolonged 10-15 inch of rain type of event.
The weather patterns that would have to be in place to allow for something to be stalled out over us, giving us the required amount of rain, then also allowing for a strong 3 to come in from the right angle would be almost unheard of because it would have to change drastically within 24 hours for it to happen. My point is, it can happen.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 6/1/17 at 5:29 pm to White Bear
quote:
Surge from Katrina flooded BR?
Or you dumb or just play that way on TV?
Posted on 6/1/17 at 5:33 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
If a storm pushes a 20 foot storm surge above sea level, how the frick does it reach a city located 30 to 50 feet above sea level?
The study is based on a slow-moving low category storm that pushes water up the Amite and dumps a ton of water upstream. Water falls upstream and can't get out.
It should really be called "surge-related," but whatever.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 6:42 pm to Roscoe
Let's do a study. Pay me 20 million to declare that if we just dug a canal from the comite to the MS river everything will be fine.
For an extra 20 million I will throw in a study that will explain the need to expand I10 to two lanes at Washington St exit.
For an extra 20 million I will throw in a study that will explain the need to expand I10 to two lanes at Washington St exit.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 6/1/17 at 6:44 pm to Roscoe
that would have to be a category 5 hurricane when it arrives on shore and by the time the eye area hits baton rouge it would be a 3.
the levees would have to collapse.
everything would have to go wrong in order for this to happen.
the levees would have to collapse.
everything would have to go wrong in order for this to happen.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 6:45 pm to Roscoe
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 6:49 pm
Posted on 6/1/17 at 7:49 pm to lsucoonass
It's a scenario that pushes surge into the Amite from the lakes. The Amite and it's tributaries would back up like last summer. With the rain from the hurricane, it would be like last summer but with no outlet for the flood waters.
It would take a slow moving storm coming in at the right angle, so it's a really unlikely scenario.
It would take a slow moving storm coming in at the right angle, so it's a really unlikely scenario.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 8:36 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:
Mississippi River? Storm surge isn't going to travel 100 miles upriver.
230 miles from the mouth to BR. That would take a noa's arc kinda of storm surge
Posted on 6/1/17 at 8:37 pm to Roscoe
Baton Rouge could use a good cleansing.
Posted on 6/1/17 at 8:43 pm to Roscoe
100% bullshite
Posted on 6/1/17 at 8:50 pm to poops_at_parties
quote:
Homes that had 4 feet of water in August would be completely under water. Roof and all
No.
The storm surge would impact the lower Amite basin and Maurepas and homes in that area less than 12' above sea level. This is is an entirely different threat than 2016, where the source of the water was upriver. The dynamics of any flooding would be entirely different.
Lower Ascension and Livingston may see some impacts of storm surge. Denham and Baton Rouge would not. Their concerns would be wind, flying debris, and localized flooding caused by heavy rainfall like it usually is for them with hurricanes.
It is roughly the same risk of Baton Rouge being flooded by storm surge as being paralyzed by a blizzard.
This post was edited on 6/1/17 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:08 pm to Duke
Y'all need to shut your mouths and not jinx us. '83 would never happen, Katrina would never happen, 2016 type flood would never happen, nothing is going to go wrong at work today...<<< all things people said that happened
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:44 pm to Roscoe
Fake news
Posted on 6/1/17 at 9:56 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:
I would assume the risk is due to the river being so high?
Mississippi River? Storm surge isn't going to travel 100 miles upriver.
It has nothing to do with storm surge moving 100 miles. If the river can't flow downstream, it will rise... The distance the storm surge travels would be irrelevant.
Posted on 6/2/17 at 12:13 am to TigerGman
quote:Say what?
Or you dumb or just play that way on TV?
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