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Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:45 pm to stout
quote:
That should cool things down some
Or panic buying starts to get a low rate before it hits 7%.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:46 pm to stout
okay I am here to eat a little Crow as our models did NOT see the mortgage rates going this high this fast (basically a record on a speed/increase basis)
BUT
new models now make sense .. the Federal Reserve has decided that the real estate market is their ground zero to "fight" inflation ... if they actually start QT (which is still just talk at this point) the smart data has it that MBS are first to go ... hence the pricing in on this front as well as the actual interest rate hikes
So yeah, the PLAN is to break the backs of the housing market FIRST and probably (secretly) hope they can stop there and then ease policy again .... as usual
BUT
new models now make sense .. the Federal Reserve has decided that the real estate market is their ground zero to "fight" inflation ... if they actually start QT (which is still just talk at this point) the smart data has it that MBS are first to go ... hence the pricing in on this front as well as the actual interest rate hikes
So yeah, the PLAN is to break the backs of the housing market FIRST and probably (secretly) hope they can stop there and then ease policy again .... as usual
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:46 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
My first mortgage was 6.8% in 2005 or 2006.
So tired of seeing people say shite like this. The difference between then and now is not only do you have high interest rates but homes are way overpriced right now and on top of that people are buying homes at 20% over asking price. It’s impossible to buy. Trust me I’ve lost 5 offers over asking price in the past 2 months
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:46 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
Locked...2.65
Same just in time.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:47 pm to stout
Where are you seeing 6.875%? I'm seeing 5.3%.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:48 pm to ClientNumber9
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:49 pm to stout
Guy right behind me in a double wide (thanks, Ascension) just put his up for sale. Huge lot and he keeps it up very nicely, sad to see him go because now I’m terrified of what kind of trash is going to move in. I can just see some bottom feeder who can only get approved for 10% or higher moving in and trashing the place up. Looks like I’m about to put up a bigger fence.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:50 pm to LoneStar23
we are at imbalance right now ... it's going to get real interesting in the late part of the normal high season when the interest rate pressures / economic conditions / increase in supply (builders catching up, foreclosures hitting market etc.) all smash together
think we will continue to see violent moves in all directions in what should be a stable asset class .... but worldwide China and other markets are SO frickED that USA real estate is still a better option .. for now
think we will continue to see violent moves in all directions in what should be a stable asset class .... but worldwide China and other markets are SO frickED that USA real estate is still a better option .. for now
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:50 pm to shawnlsu
quote:
And you Boomers are the sole reason for the terrible condition the country is in. Boomers own this entire shite show. From the pedos, to the corrupt government, to the highest crime rates to the fake Democrat vs Republican BS and biggest racial divide since slavery. Remember that.
You’re parents sound like real winners. Especially at raising kids.
You’re generation voted in Biden. Let that sink in.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:50 pm to LoneStar23
quote:
So tired of seeing people say shite like this. The difference between then and now is not only do you have high interest rates but homes are way overpriced right now and on top of that people are buying homes at 20% over asking price. It’s impossible to buy. Trust me I’ve lost 5 offers over asking price in the past 2 months
Maybe what you think you can afford is different than what you should buy??? Or, rent for a few years and let the interest rates draw the market prices down?
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:51 pm to Shankopotomus
I was going to say, is this going to be 2008 all over again? I have pretty much always been an economic doomer. The only question to me was hyperinflation or deflationary collapse? I feel like the alt economic/libertarian/goldbug type sites have mostly been in the hyperinflation camp through the years.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:52 pm to LoneStar23
quote:
So tired of seeing people say shite like this. The difference between then and now is not only do you have high interest rates but homes are way overpriced right now and on top of that people are buying homes at 20% over asking price. It’s impossible to buy. Trust me I’ve lost 5 offers over asking price in the past 2 months
Demand will fall in most markets when rates keep going up but it won't be good for buyers because you'll just be paying more in interest.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:53 pm to BigPerm30
ehhh...... the asset class is inflated as hell .... and if you look at today's numbers there are more APARTMENTS being built than single family houses yet again for this cycle
my prediction to prop this up - eventually - there will be housing-specific stimulus for "underserved" communities, first-time homebuyers etc. etc. etc.
it's coming ...they'll have to
my prediction to prop this up - eventually - there will be housing-specific stimulus for "underserved" communities, first-time homebuyers etc. etc. etc.
it's coming ...they'll have to
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:54 pm to Shaun176
I bought my house 20 years ago next month, the rates were lower than now. But that's only because they were really falling post 9/11/01
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:54 pm to stout
My buddy said everything is around 5.25 in Louisiana. Definitely not 6.8 in this state.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:55 pm to stout
OB is at 5.274 right now.
ETA: I initially thought it would top out at 6%. I think it will get a little higher than that, but I don't know if they'll reach 6.8% before the recession hits. I'm worried if Trump doesn't get elected, we'll see a full-blown depression in '24.
ETA: I initially thought it would top out at 6%. I think it will get a little higher than that, but I don't know if they'll reach 6.8% before the recession hits. I'm worried if Trump doesn't get elected, we'll see a full-blown depression in '24.
This post was edited on 4/19/22 at 7:00 pm
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:55 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
my prediction to prop this up - eventually - there will be housing-specific stimulus for "underserved" communities, first-time homebuyers etc. etc. etc.
So, in other words, tax the shite out of the middle class and give it to poor people essentially destroying the middle class? Ah....I see their motive now.
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:56 pm to Bunk Moreland
it won't be ... it's worse ... but for different reasons
the average borrower / mortgage holder is well qualified this cycle and likely will STAY in their home and simply not move/upgrade
but the Fed is SO frickED and behind the 8 ball they are targeting housing to try and fight inflation (since unemployment is so embarrassingly low). they will keep tightening until something "breaks" and it looks as if it'll be housing demand and then prices and then by that point we'll be deep in the election cycle and all of this important shite will be political footballs and talking points
then ... loose policy again starting next year after the unavoidable recession comes
the average borrower / mortgage holder is well qualified this cycle and likely will STAY in their home and simply not move/upgrade
but the Fed is SO frickED and behind the 8 ball they are targeting housing to try and fight inflation (since unemployment is so embarrassingly low). they will keep tightening until something "breaks" and it looks as if it'll be housing demand and then prices and then by that point we'll be deep in the election cycle and all of this important shite will be political footballs and talking points
then ... loose policy again starting next year after the unavoidable recession comes
Posted on 4/19/22 at 6:57 pm to bbap
Most online sources say 5.27. I think your link is just wrong.
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