Another Civlil War Question

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Were the confederates grossly over confident?

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Yes and they were all hopped up on Mountain Dew.

I respect that, with a question that has been analyzed by experts in great detail in many places readily available through a google search, you decided to come here to ask instead. I appreciate your level of faith in us.

The south had better odds than the colonists had against the British.

Had they not stopped at 1st bull run they may have been able to Take the capital and force an armistice before the union war machine could truly mobilize and make use of its superior numbers and industry.

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Did southern leaders think they could defeat the union in a major war or was the goal to force the union into to a quick ceasefire, preserving states rights in the south for a little longer?

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Watched a documentary on Jefferson Davis a while back. Among the many problems the south faced, Davis was a ridiculous micromanager of the war who wouldn’t hesitate to fire anyone he felt wasn’t all in for the cause. Where many southern leaders were in it to defend their homelands or other reasons, Davis was absolutely sure that none other than god himself had ordained the cause. This caused ridiculous amounts of friction between Jefferson and the confederate army leadership because they were not invested in the war to the extent Davis was.

That’s my understanding as well.

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preserving states rights

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Looking at it through today’s lense, a path to military victory for the south seems impossible

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Had the South fought more of a guerrilla war, it could have been possible. I'm not just talking defensive battles exclusively in the South, but raids into Union territory as well. The war would have been extended and support for it in the North would have likely diminished, especially in border areas. People forget George McClellan won 45% of the popular vote in 1864 with no Confederate states participating. And if war is still being waged leading up to 1868, does a candiate become President on a pledge to end the war via truce?

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North didn’t have a 3000 mile supply line and a lack of familiarity with the geography

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They also didn’t have the world’s largest, most trained army and a broke frick enemy that was supported by less than half the population.

The colonists had little chance of beating Britain, but they did. Truly one of the more remarkable victories in human history. And for the record there’s no individual more responsible for that than that guy George Washington... which is why lots of stuff is named after ole GW


And for the record, Alexander Hamilton - G-Dub’s right hand man - was the guy who truly saw and developed the plan to win. And his genius was that it wasn’t militarily; he knew we couldn’t beat them head to head. So he flipped the script and changed the battlefield. He understood economics, banking, and human behavior like few others and realized we didn’t have to beat the British on the field; we just needed all the Dutch creditors to King George start to get nervous and lose confidence and really start to put a pinch on the Crown Treasury. And he knew we could eventually just make it not worth it to the Crown and they’d have no choice but to pull out.

Of course few people in history have ever had the amount of raw leadership and charisma needed to hold an army together while essentially getting their arse kicked all over the place for the time required for Hamilton’s plan to realize. But one of those people in human history was George Washington and he’s why we exist today

The British probably wouldn't have helped a cause, since they outlawed "slavery".

Maybe prussians, France( Napolen 3) would have gotten involved.


Could Ottomans have helped?