Models continue to try to do something but it still looks like a sloppy system that could be a prolific rain maker.

Images below or from the 00z experimental Euro run:

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19809 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 9:41 am to whodatdude

quote:
how much confidence is there in the FV3 model (excluding long term)?

It has shown some improved skill but the FV3 they are currently running still uses the GFS base physics package. In theory, the big improvements will come in 2020 when the total overhaul is complete with upgraded physics and data assimilation.

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Posted by rt3

now in the piney woods of Pineville

Member since Apr 2011

141092 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 11:27 am to rds dc

Weather Channel now picking up on it... talking about at the very least a big rainmaker for the north gulf coast for Memorial Day weekend

ETA: yes I know I said the Weather Channel... sue me

This post was edited on 5/20/18 at 11:29 am

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Posted by notiger1997

Metairie

Member since May 2009

58120 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 12:03 pm to rt3

Well hell. Supposed to go stay in south Alabama Friday through Monday. Might cancel

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19809 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 1:47 pm to rds dc

12z Euro

12z FV3-GFS (slower than Euro)

12z GFS

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Posted by FCP

Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra

Member since Sep 2010

4777 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:02 pm to rds dc

Euro and FV3-GFS can EAD. Just FYI.

This post was edited on 5/20/18 at 2:04 pm

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19809 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:05 pm to rds dc

12z Euro has 10-15"+ rain across S. LA with this system.

This post was edited on 5/20/18 at 2:11 pm

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Posted by LaBR4

Baton Rouge

Member since Sep 2005

50747 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:06 pm to rds dc

Faackk

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Posted by FCP

Delta State Univ. - Fightin' Okra

Member since Sep 2010

4777 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:18 pm to rds dc

quote:
>

That's eerily similar to the 2016 flooding in EBR/LP. Except with a storm surge pushing the water back upstream.

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Posted by Maytheporkbewithyou

Member since Aug 2016

12617 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:21 pm to rds dc

Ok, so I'm going to Orange Beach from the 27th until the 2nd. Are we fricked?

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19809 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:31 pm to FCP

quote:
That's eerily similar to the 2016 flooding in EBR/LP. Except with a storm surge pushing the water back upstream.

It is certainly too early to make any kind of prediction like that but people do need to be aware that a lot rain is on the way for parts of the Gulf Coast. How much and where is still to be determined.

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Posted by Dandaman

Louisiana

Member since May 2017

704 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:33 pm to rds dc

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Posted by Duke

Twin Lakes, CO

Member since Jan 2008

35610 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:35 pm to FCP

It's showing less rain by a good 6-10" at least and not as much to the north over more of the Amite and Comite. Plus it's a ways out to be too certain.

That being said, having flooded in 16, that's enough to have me nervous.

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Posted by birdieman

New Orleans

Member since Dec 2012

1647 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 2:41 pm to Duke

Perfect. frick.

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19809 posts

Posted on 5/20/18 at 3:11 pm to rds dc

One thing that does concern me about the 12z Euro and FV3-GFS is that they build a ridge over the top and any potential system gets trapped. Models do show above avg skill (vs. normal skill at each time step) in the long range when the pattern gets stagnant like that.

12z Euro for next Saturday