re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

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FWIW, that wasnt a "1000" year flood. A couple of spots got 1000 year rain but that wasn't the case over the entire basin.

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Yeah, think it was a 500 year flood on the Amite. 0.2% chance of happening each year.

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GFS has been eaten up with convective feedback this whole time

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So, drunk? idk what that means.

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The point about how an event recently doesn't change the odds of another one happening is well stated.

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Yea, the terminology of "100 year event" is part of the problem and then on top of that most people don't understand stats.

Regardless, nothing in the current guidance is suggestive of an event similar to '16. The most extreme runs are still only 12-15" over a couple of days. Sure there could be flooding but nothing is really pointing towards a major event it at this point.

Gotcha. Yeah, it's basically east and sloppy from initialization.

I'd be fine if that plays out, but considering the agreement between the 12z Euro and GFS, I'll ignore the 18z GFS for now.

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This thing hasn't moved but maybe what ~50nmi?

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Yeah, it's not exactly in a hurry.

Anyone have any intensity forecast?
Or is it to early.

Is that sheer on the top?

Good chance of TS