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re: 2015 Season-Long Hurricane Thread - Watching Invest 96L
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:02 am to Kill Switch
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:02 am to Kill Switch
Recon is showing kind of an elongated sloppy center of circulation with this system but plenty of tropical force winds to the NE. This should be designated Bill at some point today, the center just needs to tighten up a bit.
1
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:04 am to rds dc
So I'm reading the COC is elongated and more to the northeast than originally thought. Is there an updated projected path as of now? Surely this means it will be coming closer to Louisiana which would put more rain in SELA.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:28 am to TDsngumbo
Hurricanes are scary. 
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:55 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
So I'm reading the COC is elongated and more to the northeast than originally thought. Is there an updated projected path as of now? Surely this means it will be coming closer to Louisiana which would put more rain in SELA
I don't think you read that correctly.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:56 am to Flashback
This should pretty much cover it, however, you're still not going to die
Disturbance 7 Likely To Become Tropical Storm Bill Later Today
9:00 AM CDT, Monday, June 15, 2015
Disturbance 7 is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 25.3N, 93.2W and is moving WNW at 10 mph. Satellite data indicates that there are winds to 45 mph extending well northeast through east of the center. Regardless of whether the disturbance gets officially classified as a named tropical storm, these winds with higher gusts are expected to accompany the system well to the northeast of the center as it traverses the western Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so. Landfall is expected along the lower to middle Texas coast Tuesday as a 40-45 mph system. The greatest impact will be heavy rain and flooding Monday night through early Wednesday for eastern Texas.
The worst weather for the Texas coast will occur tomorrow. Winds, tides and rains along the middle and upper Texas coast will improve very gradually on Wednesday.
Expected Impacts Onshore
East Texas through Western Louisiana: The main impact from the system will be heavy rainfall this afternoon through Wednesday that is expected to cause widespread minor to moderate flooding, with some isolated areas of major flooding possible. Sustained winds along coastal areas near the lower limits of tropical storm force with higher gusts are likely to cause scattered power outages along and well to the northeast of the path of the center. Tides up to 3 feet above normal are expected to extend well to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Gulf of Mexico: Sustained winds as high as 45 mph to 50 mph with gusts of 55 mph to 65 mph are expected to extend up to 250 miles to the northeast and east of the path of the center as it moves through the Gulf. The timing on this for the deepwater lease areas is this morning through tomorrow morning. Gradually improving conditions are expected late tomorrow into early Wednesday.
Disturbance 7 Likely To Become Tropical Storm Bill Later Today
9:00 AM CDT, Monday, June 15, 2015
Disturbance 7 is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 25.3N, 93.2W and is moving WNW at 10 mph. Satellite data indicates that there are winds to 45 mph extending well northeast through east of the center. Regardless of whether the disturbance gets officially classified as a named tropical storm, these winds with higher gusts are expected to accompany the system well to the northeast of the center as it traverses the western Gulf of Mexico over the next day or so. Landfall is expected along the lower to middle Texas coast Tuesday as a 40-45 mph system. The greatest impact will be heavy rain and flooding Monday night through early Wednesday for eastern Texas.
The worst weather for the Texas coast will occur tomorrow. Winds, tides and rains along the middle and upper Texas coast will improve very gradually on Wednesday.
Expected Impacts Onshore
East Texas through Western Louisiana: The main impact from the system will be heavy rainfall this afternoon through Wednesday that is expected to cause widespread minor to moderate flooding, with some isolated areas of major flooding possible. Sustained winds along coastal areas near the lower limits of tropical storm force with higher gusts are likely to cause scattered power outages along and well to the northeast of the path of the center. Tides up to 3 feet above normal are expected to extend well to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Gulf of Mexico: Sustained winds as high as 45 mph to 50 mph with gusts of 55 mph to 65 mph are expected to extend up to 250 miles to the northeast and east of the path of the center as it moves through the Gulf. The timing on this for the deepwater lease areas is this morning through tomorrow morning. Gradually improving conditions are expected late tomorrow into early Wednesday.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:58 am to tgrbaitn08
I'M GONNA BE IN THE EYE!!!!!!!!
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:58 am to TDsngumbo
Wind shear has been decreasing ahead of it. Could aid in development.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:02 am to RummelTiger
quote:
I'M GONNA BE IN THE EYE!!!!!!!!
you're probably going to need your generator
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:02 am to tgrbaitn08
Shreveport better get their boats ready. That's a shite ton of rain the in Red River Watershed.
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 10:03 am
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:33 am to BottomlandBrew
Looks like HH found a closed center of circulation. Probably about to designate a TD or TS.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:33 am to BottomlandBrew
Damn it. I just need this thing to slow down so that I can get on a plane in Houston to the Bahamas tomorrow morning
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:36 am to guedeaux
quote:
Damn it. I just need this thing to slow down so that I can get on a plane in Houston to the Bahamas tomorrow morning
You might look at trying to fly out of NOLA...
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:47 am to RummelTiger
Should be interesting in Houston. Live inside the loop
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:48 am to RummelTiger
SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:54 am to FleurDeLonestar
Yep.
Any Houston native being told to stay home from work tomorrow or work from home?
My boss gave the obligatory, "you know your route better than anyone else, if you don't feel safe driving tomorrow/Wednesday. Go ahead and stay home"
Any Houston native being told to stay home from work tomorrow or work from home?
My boss gave the obligatory, "you know your route better than anyone else, if you don't feel safe driving tomorrow/Wednesday. Go ahead and stay home"
This post was edited on 6/15/15 at 10:55 am
Posted on 6/15/15 at 10:58 am to Klark Kent
Well I live in Victoria....should be a fun next couple of days...
Posted on 6/15/15 at 11:23 am to FleurDeLonestar
Inside the loop too. Wish it could have held off until July, we're moving to Florida to check out the sharks and rip tides.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 3:10 pm to GeauxLSUGeaux
quote:
You know nothin', Jon Snow
And now my watch has ended
Posted on 6/15/15 at 8:53 pm to LordSnow
it's officially TS Bill now
quote:
NHC Atlantic Ops ?@NHC_Atlantic
NHC is initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Bill and expects to release the advisory in the next 20 minutes.
Posted on 6/15/15 at 9:13 pm to FleurDeLonestar
It's getting real.
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