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Started By
Message
re: 2015 Season-Long Hurricane Thread - Watching Invest 96L
Posted on 6/14/15 at 6:34 pm to Dizz
Posted on 6/14/15 at 6:34 pm to Dizz
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association
with the surface trough and upper-level low over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. However, the low's circulation is not well-defined,
and the current shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat
disorganized. The aircraft also found a large area of tropical
storm force winds well to the north and northeast of the low.
Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable
while this system moves northwestward during the next couple of days
across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form during that time. Another Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate this system Monday morning.
Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed in association
with the surface trough and upper-level low over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. However, the low's circulation is not well-defined,
and the current shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat
disorganized. The aircraft also found a large area of tropical
storm force winds well to the north and northeast of the low.
Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more favorable
while this system moves northwestward during the next couple of days
across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form during that time. Another Hurricane
Hunter aircraft will investigate this system Monday morning.
Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday. There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
1
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:14 pm to GEAUXmedic
00z best track:
The latest position is at 22.6, 91.3, which is right under that blow up in convection. He's wrapping up as well and has decreased shear ahead of him.
quote:
AL, 91, 2015061500, , BEST, 0, 226N, 913W, 35, 1007, DB
The latest position is at 22.6, 91.3, which is right under that blow up in convection. He's wrapping up as well and has decreased shear ahead of him.
This post was edited on 6/14/15 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
so htown's gonna get more rain?
frick
frick
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
LINK
Mets on Storm2k are saying we will have Bill within 24 hrs.
Mets on Storm2k are saying we will have Bill within 24 hrs.
This post was edited on 6/14/15 at 8:24 pm
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:19 pm to The Egg
It's gonna suck, brah.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
Can't wait until I get to work tomorrow. Copy and pasting maps, graphs, models, gifs and weather forecast is so much fun. I post so much that people actually believe that I know what I'm talking about.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:26 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Can't wait until I get to work tomorrow. Copy and pasting maps, graphs, models, gifs and weather forecast is so much fun. I post so much that people actually believe that I know what I'm talking about.
I never claimed to be an expert, I happen to be interested in weather discussion. You seem to be extremely butthurt about it for some reason.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
I was simply making a statement. Why are you getting so defensive?
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
I appreciate what you and the other Weather Board posters do, Geauxmedic 
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:33 pm to tgrbaitn08
I like the 18z gfs run - total accumulated rainfall thru next sunday. Moves all the crappy rain further away from my area.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:37 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
I like the 18z gfs run - total accumulated rainfall thru next sunday.
Which, I feel, are grossly conservative.
If that swath holds, Central Texas could see it's second "epic" flooding event in as many months.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:40 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
If that swath holds, Central Texas could see it's second "epic" flooding event in as many months.
This is the QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) for the next 5 days:
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:41 pm to RummelTiger
That's horrible.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:43 pm to rmnldr
Can someone give me the cliff note version of what Houston should expect?
Thanks
Thanks
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:46 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
If that swath holds, Central Texas could see it's second "epic" flooding event in as many months.
And Shreveport will be in a world of shite.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:50 pm to Jim Rockford
Any indication of which way this puppy is moving currently??
Posted on 6/14/15 at 8:51 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
From Crown Weather Services
quote:
Sunday 6/14/2015 - 11:05 am ET/10:05 am CT: Highlights from my latest morning update on Invest 91-L.
- 85 to 90 percent chance that this will become Tropical Storm Bill in the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
- Main impact will be extreme rainfall and major flooding across southeast, east and central Texas and the western half of Louisiana from Monday through Wednesday.
- Pattern is very reminiscent of Allison in 2001 and I have great concern that we will see that type of rainfall and flooding (Allison-Like Rainfall Totals).
- Everyone across southeast, east and central Texas and western and southwest Louisiana, including Houston, Galveston, Beaumont, College Station, Tyler, Texas, Lake Charles, Lafayette and Shreveport, Louisiana needs to take this rainfall threat extremely seriously.
That is a pretty misleading, esp. since the synoptic setup (large scale atmospheric features) isn't really like 2001. Allison had a weakening ridge to the E and a strengthening ridge in the SW. The ridge in the SW strengthened as Allison made landfall and it eventually caused the storm to stall and move back out into the Gulf.
This week the ridge to the E of the system looks to hold tight with a trough moving through the northern stream. This will create a weakness that will allow the system to slide up and over the ridge and eventually off towards the Ohio Valley and NE.
TL, DR - we won't see rainfall total maps like this after this system
Posted on 6/14/15 at 9:00 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Red River levels have receded very little. Several more inches of rain in the watershed will result in historic flooding.
This is a real concern for sure. Pretty much all the models hammer Oklahoma and the Red River with rain regardless of what track the system takes through Texas.
Posted on 6/14/15 at 9:00 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
This is the QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) from the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) for the next 5 days:
I don't think that reflects the shift to the West that I've seen in the most recent models. I guess I could just push all of that a bit to the left...
Posted on 6/14/15 at 9:01 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
I don't think that reflects the shift to the West that I've seen in the most recent models. I guess I could just push all of that a bit to the left...
Right, that was put out around 5pm
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