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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread

Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:59 pm to
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

Here is the latest Canadian just for kicks



Crazy uncle is crazy
Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
118294 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 8:00 pm to
quote:

Here is the latest Canadian just for kicks


Tampa..
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45586 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 8:03 pm to
Please pass St Maarten before I move there next week
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
115558 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 8:04 pm to
frick this noise
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14317 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 8:07 pm to
quote:

Crazy uncle is crazy


As usual.

The thing that is disconcerting is that the Euro has it as a closed low in the southern Gulf, although not a very strong one as of yet. Whenever the GFS and Euro somewhat agree, something almost always forms.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 8:23 pm to
quote:

The thing that is disconcerting is that the Euro has it as a closed low in the southern Gulf, although not a very strong one as of yet. Whenever the GFS and Euro somewhat agree, something almost always forms.



It is very interesting..
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
172504 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 9:15 pm to
canada still mad at miami for taking bosh
Posted by Methuselah
On da Riva
Member since Jan 2005
23350 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 10:19 pm to
Hurricane supply stock up time yet?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 10:55 pm to
so far on the 00z gfs slower and weaker, still not in the GOM though. That's where we see the intensification.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:13 pm to
poor initialization on this run of the GFS given it's current actual position... probably could throw it out.
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
70048 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:15 pm to
No offense Geaux but has Rummy shown up yet?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:16 pm to
quote:

No offense Geaux but has Rummy shown up yet?



hmm don't think so.. he's been around though. saw him in the st louis thread
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105328 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:26 pm to
So basically I can look forward to an unsettled stomach for the next 10 days
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:29 pm to
quote:

Jim Rockford



where you from?
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105328 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:30 pm to
Cenla, but my GF lives on the Nortshore.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:44 pm to
quote:

Cenla, but my GF lives on the Nortshore.



ooh, well the latest GFS shows tx/la landfall.. it was a weird run though, not sure it shouldn't be thrown out.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21552 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:54 pm to
quote:

quote:
Crazy uncle is crazy


As usual


The Canadian model was upgraded at some point during the past year and has performed better with the 500 mb in the mid-lats but it still sucks big time in the tropics.

quote:

The thing that is disconcerting is that the Euro has it as a closed low in the southern Gulf, although not a very strong one as of yet. Whenever the GFS and Euro somewhat agree, something almost always forms.


The Euro has been on/off on this system and it has been keying on different areas for development. The Euro was upgraded a year or so ago and has really struggled with tropical genesis since the upgrade. The Euro EPS has been much better than the operational this season and it has a decent genesis signal at this point with about 1/5 of the members showing something in the Gulf by day 8.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21552 posts
Posted on 8/19/14 at 11:55 pm to
quote:

poor initialization on this run of the GFS given it's current actual position


Why do you say that?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21552 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:04 am to
quote:

quote:
poor initialization on this run of the GFS given it's current actual position


Why do you say that?






Looks pretty good for to me for initializing a disorganized mess.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102335 posts
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:10 am to


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