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Message
Value of the Trade
Posted on 4/27/18 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 4/27/18 at 3:29 pm
I am going to lay this out in three scenarios based off of a standard NFL Draft Trade Chart: Best Case, Worse Case, and Most Probable.
Best Case:
Pick 14 = 1,100 Trade Value (Received By the Saints)
Pick 27 = 680
Pick 147 = 32
Pick 32 (Next Year) = 590
TOTAL = 1,302 Trade Value (Received By the Packers)
Difference is 202 points in favor of the Packers. So, even in the best case scenario where we win the Super Bowl and the Packers select last pick of the first round of next years draft we are still upside down on this trade. But who cares we won the Super Bowl!
Worst Case:
Pick 14 = 1,100 Trade Value (Received By the Saints)
Pick 27 = 680
Pick 147 = 32
Pick 1 (Next Year) = 3000
TOTAL = 3,702 Trade Value (Received By the Packers)
Difference is 2,612 points in favor of the Packers.
If the wheel falls off and we end up with the worst record in the league, which is highly unlikely, but a possibility. Then it will take a long time to recover from this trade scenario.
Most Probable:
The most probable scenario is one where we make the playoffs. So, lets assume we make it but are put out in the first round. That would put the draft pick at 21.
Pick 14 = 1,100 Trade Value (Received By the Saints)
Pick 27 = 680
Pick 147 = 32
Pick 21 (Next Year) = 800
TOTAL = 1,512 Trade Value (Received By the Packers)
Difference is 412 points in favor of the Packers. How would you feel based off of this scenario. We didn't improve upon last years season but have to sit and watch the Packers select at 21 of next years draft.
As long as Davenport develops into a great player for us it doesn't matter. But he has to be special and has to be able to affect the outcome of games.
Best Case:
Pick 14 = 1,100 Trade Value (Received By the Saints)
Pick 27 = 680
Pick 147 = 32
Pick 32 (Next Year) = 590
TOTAL = 1,302 Trade Value (Received By the Packers)
Difference is 202 points in favor of the Packers. So, even in the best case scenario where we win the Super Bowl and the Packers select last pick of the first round of next years draft we are still upside down on this trade. But who cares we won the Super Bowl!
Worst Case:
Pick 14 = 1,100 Trade Value (Received By the Saints)
Pick 27 = 680
Pick 147 = 32
Pick 1 (Next Year) = 3000
TOTAL = 3,702 Trade Value (Received By the Packers)
Difference is 2,612 points in favor of the Packers.
If the wheel falls off and we end up with the worst record in the league, which is highly unlikely, but a possibility. Then it will take a long time to recover from this trade scenario.
Most Probable:
The most probable scenario is one where we make the playoffs. So, lets assume we make it but are put out in the first round. That would put the draft pick at 21.
Pick 14 = 1,100 Trade Value (Received By the Saints)
Pick 27 = 680
Pick 147 = 32
Pick 21 (Next Year) = 800
TOTAL = 1,512 Trade Value (Received By the Packers)
Difference is 412 points in favor of the Packers. How would you feel based off of this scenario. We didn't improve upon last years season but have to sit and watch the Packers select at 21 of next years draft.
As long as Davenport develops into a great player for us it doesn't matter. But he has to be special and has to be able to affect the outcome of games.
8
Posted on 4/27/18 at 3:31 pm to 1luckyguy
I’ll allow it!
Posted on 4/27/18 at 3:33 pm to 1luckyguy
You are applying current picks and future picks at the same value. That's not how it works.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 3:34 pm to 1luckyguy
From my understanding, it is universally accepted that you half the value of future picks based on where you are picking that year, so:
#27 - 680
Next Years First: 340
#147: 32
Total - 1052
#14 - 1100
So we actually were +48 points for the trade.
#27 - 680
Next Years First: 340
#147: 32
Total - 1052
#14 - 1100
So we actually were +48 points for the trade.
This post was edited on 4/27/18 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 4/27/18 at 3:50 pm to Seeker
you have it backwards
a future pick is generally valued at one round up
so if you trade a 2nd next year it’s valued as a 1st on the trade chart
since they traded a future first you can conservatively value it at 1.5x value so 680 x 1.5 = 1020 or so. It doesn’t matter now...saints did not “win” the trade based on pick value no matter how you parse the numbers. hopefully the player makes it worth it
a future pick is generally valued at one round up
so if you trade a 2nd next year it’s valued as a 1st on the trade chart
since they traded a future first you can conservatively value it at 1.5x value so 680 x 1.5 = 1020 or so. It doesn’t matter now...saints did not “win” the trade based on pick value no matter how you parse the numbers. hopefully the player makes it worth it
This post was edited on 4/27/18 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 4/27/18 at 4:06 pm to 1luckyguy
Next year's first is valued around the middle of the second (partly because it could be very late in the round and partly because the other team is waiting a year).
We gave up at most marginally more value with the 5th rounder.
We gave up at most marginally more value with the 5th rounder.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 4:06 pm to cgrand
I don’t think you are correct. If you use a future pick for a pick in the same year, for example using the Kamara trade in which we gave up a future 2nd to acquire a 3rd that year. We gave them a higher round pick to offset the decreased value of using a future pick therefore helping to balance the trade value. Obviously we could not give them equal value for the pick in that same year (because that would have been the same 3rd round pick), so we increased the round to offset the decrease in future pick value. Basically it kind of follows philosophy of “a dollar in hand now is worth more than a dollar later” which is, I’m pretty sure, universally how the value is viewed for all teams.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 4:08 pm to cgrand
quote:
a future pick is generally valued at one round up
Wtf?
No. Nope. Dead wrong.
Why would a team needing to wait a year value the pick a round higher? Makes zero fricking sense.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 4:11 pm to cgrand
Wrong! Next years Pick is worth less than point value for current year
Posted on 4/27/18 at 4:29 pm to bonethug0108
It makes some sense and I see the argument both ways. But if I am a team willing to trade back because I don’t see a value with my pick, moving a few spots this year and getting the additional ammo for the next year is definitely very valuable. Teams with two firsts in one draft can damn near get anywhere on the board
Posted on 4/27/18 at 4:46 pm to Mr.Perfect
it's valuable, but more valuable if the pick is in this year's draft than next year's draft.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 4:55 pm to 1luckyguy
We have a history trading up. If he is good as Kamara it will be a great trade for us. If he is another Jonathan Sullivan (God forbid) it will be a disaster. The Mark Ingram deal fell somewhere in between. I trust Jeff Ireland so I will be optimistic about this one.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 5:05 pm to schlodc
quote:
Packers send: Pick No. 14
Saints send: Picks No. 27, 147, 2019 first-round pick
Johnson chart: $1.56
Stuart chart: $1.87
$1.00 being an even trade
saints either paid 56% premium or 87% premium depending on the chart you use
Posted on 4/27/18 at 5:23 pm to 1luckyguy
I already made this post earlier. The value is roughly 1400 for 1450. A future pick is equivalent to the round +1 for the same year.
2019 1st has a value of 2018 2nd.
2019 2nd has a value of 2018 3rd.
Kamara was a 2017 3rd round pick which costed a 2018 2nd.
Value wise, Buffalo and Seattle were two teams to get fleeced. Buffalo gave up too much. Seattle got too little.
2019 1st has a value of 2018 2nd.
2019 2nd has a value of 2018 3rd.
Kamara was a 2017 3rd round pick which costed a 2018 2nd.
Value wise, Buffalo and Seattle were two teams to get fleeced. Buffalo gave up too much. Seattle got too little.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 5:27 pm to cgrand
quote:
you have it backwards a future pick is generally valued at one round up so if you trade a 2nd next year it’s valued as a 1st on the trade chart
Lol. No you absolutely are incorrect with this.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 5:29 pm to 1luckyguy
The Saints got hosed. Davenport may end up being a great player, like most anyone else in the draft, but on paper the Saints got hosed. And why the eff did we give them #147 instead on #164 in round 5? That's a difference of 17 players.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 5:35 pm to cgrand
This is wrong man.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 5:45 pm to cgrand
quote:
saints did not “win” the trade based on pick value no matter how you parse the numbers. hopefully the player makes it worth it
The intention was never to "win" the trade. The intention was to win a Lombardi in the next couple of years. While Brees is still around and Cam is in his prime. They think another playmaker on the line with the ability to rush the passer will make the difference. That's why they kicked the tires on Suh. It is definitely a risk, If Brees goes down this board will be unbearable but the reward is high as well.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 5:57 pm to 1luckyguy
So looking it up, the correct value is:
27- 680
Next year's first valued at 48- 420
147- 32.6
Total- 1,132.6
14- 1,100
So we overpaid by the 5th rounder, but if we are going to complain about a 5th rounder overpay after finally getting a pass rusher, then those complainers are truly lost.
This is separate from the "is it worth trading up at all" argument, but we paid roughly proper value.
27- 680
Next year's first valued at 48- 420
147- 32.6
Total- 1,132.6
14- 1,100
So we overpaid by the 5th rounder, but if we are going to complain about a 5th rounder overpay after finally getting a pass rusher, then those complainers are truly lost.
This is separate from the "is it worth trading up at all" argument, but we paid roughly proper value.
Posted on 4/27/18 at 6:05 pm to cgrand
quote:
cgrand
Oooooo.....yeah......I’m gonna have to go ahead and....disagree with you there
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