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Message
re: The purse for Chris Olave
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:05 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:05 pm to SlowFlowPro
The Rams have hardly had any picks at all the last few years and I don’t hear their fans complaining now that they have a Lombardi in the trophy case.
I get the criticism. It’s warranted for sure. But this is a results league. Their draft strategy, while I don’t agree with it, has added a lot of talent to our roster over the years. Even if guys like Davenport were not worth the bounty they gave for him, he’s still a solid starter and not a complete bust. It’s not good value but he is a good player when he’s not hurt.
In fact, the only complete bust you can say the Saints have had recently is Ruiz.
I get the criticism. It’s warranted for sure. But this is a results league. Their draft strategy, while I don’t agree with it, has added a lot of talent to our roster over the years. Even if guys like Davenport were not worth the bounty they gave for him, he’s still a solid starter and not a complete bust. It’s not good value but he is a good player when he’s not hurt.
In fact, the only complete bust you can say the Saints have had recently is Ruiz.
1
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:07 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
Im not sure I agree with this at all. If the Saints' strategy was: "we are a playoff contender with a tight window in need of 2-3 top flite starters to make a deep run", than its harder to argue with what they did.
The flaw is assuming they have the ability to draft that well, when the data show no team has that ability.
quote:
it just makes him cheaper and more risky.
The risk is negated by the accumulation of picks. That's the whole point.
Real risk is decreasing your quantity of picks b/c drafting is a very inexact science and all teams are mediocre at it, at best.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:08 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
The Rams have hardly had any picks at all the last few years
They have picks but not top picks.
They had 8 picks this past draft.
And they traded those picks for sure things (Ramsey, Stafford, etc).
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:10 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Literally just look at the Ravens every year. They sit and draft the guys who fall for no rational reason. Every. Year.
And their picks aren’t any more successful for it?
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:11 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
They had 8 picks this past draft.
Let’s double back after camp and see how many of them end up getting cut or being special teamers
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Rational people who understand analytics and economics will still care about the picks.
If Olave and Penning become top 10 in their positions in the NFL over time, and people still complain about the draft picks, then those people will be ignored.
If they bust...well then Dennis Allen likely won't have a job for long.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
the data
wait for it...
quote:
very inexact science
quote:
The risk is negated by the accumulation of picks. That's the whole point.
Real risk is decreasing your quantity of picks b/c drafting is a very inexact science and all teams are mediocre at it, at best.
Its just your opinion. Three practice squad tackles dont equal Trevor Penning.
Its the old quality/quantity argument. Both are fine draft strategies depending on your needs and approach. For a team in need of a few key pieces (like the Saints), the likelihood of getting a viable contributors/starters beyond round three is remote. In the early rounds, you have to take what the draft gives you and be willing to lose out on "your guy" because you arent willing to part with a mid rounder.
Say what you want, there is no universal approach to drafting.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:16 pm to LSUZombie
quote:
If Olave and Penning become top 10 in their positions in the NFL over time, and people still complain about the draft picks, then those people will be ignored.
Fans love results-oriented thinking, yes.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:17 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
And a player falling doesnt make him a better prospect, it just makes him cheaper and more risky.
It doesn’t make him more risky necessarily but there’s also risk in passing on him or in this case giving up multiple picks to get someone else. That’s what I think many are not understanding, there is risk in trading up.
For example the Saints gave up a 2018 5th to move up for Davenport. Russell Gage went in the 6th round in that draft. They also gave up their 2019 first #30 overall. Deebo Samuel went 36. I use those players to show there have been good WR available the Saints could have taken except for giving up picks. Instead they constantly Trying to fill roster holes.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:19 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Fans love results-oriented thinking, yes.
Kind of the fun of being a fan, yes.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:19 pm to H-Town Tiger
there's additional risk associated with a player who is free falling like that. Remember, you have to view this in the context of the information teams have in that moment. Looking forward is dishonest.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:21 pm to SlowFlowPro
I can see it both ways. The guys picked cost a lot of draft capital. If he's all pro, we all forget. But the guys that could have been picked could, equally, suck, and we never forget (Jonathan Sullivan).
I, personally, don't mind because I liked Olave, which filled a need and I think he will be good. They also filled a need with Penning. I think it was a good draft, on paper.
I, personally, don't mind because I liked Olave, which filled a need and I think he will be good. They also filled a need with Penning. I think it was a good draft, on paper.
This post was edited on 5/3/22 at 1:22 pm
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:22 pm to LSUZombie
quote:
Kind of the fun of being a fan, yes.
I am a fan and I prefer my team operating at peak efficiency and analysis.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:24 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
Say what you want, there is no universal approach to drafting.
There really isn't. It's all up to the GM in charge. Loomis likes the quality over quantity approach. It's landed us some good players. Sometimes it hasn't.
Teams like the Ravens stay where they are or trade back. Sometimes it works for them and sometimes it doesn't.
A quick Google search has the Saints and Ravens in the top 3 of best drafting teams in the NFL over the past decade. Both strategies can work.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:26 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
ts just your opinion. Three practice squad tackles dont equal Trevor Penning.
A)Penning could be a practice squad guy for all we know b) he was picked at 19, the Saints originally had 17 so they could have gotten him with out any trades.
If you don’t like the Ravens fine. This exact strategy is what Jimmy Johnson used to build the Cowboys 90s dynasty. They had 3 3rd pound picks in 1991. James Richards who appears to be a camp cut. Godfrey Miles, a back up ST players for 6 years and Erik Williams an elite LT. That’s the point of accumulating picks. You can’t know which 1 will pan out
This post was edited on 5/3/22 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:28 pm to SlowFlowPro
like sabermetrics in baseball?
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:31 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
Looking forward is dishonest.
Exactly that’s why claiming if Olave is all pro no one will care is stupid.
If we’re talking specifically about Dean, he would have been the 80th pick in this scenario. The other side of risk is reward. Is the potential reward (solid starter) greater than the risk (injury/undersized)? At 18 no, 49 maybe and 80 frick yeah!
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:33 pm to H-Town Tiger
you have to be really good in the late rounds. The Saints have had a few gems, and a whole lot of WTF.
and again.... approach. If you are a 1-15 team, sure. If you are in contention for a division title and simply need a solid LT and WR2, you arent "wrong" to trade up. People try and make something thats as much art as it is science into something purely scientific... It isnt.
and again.... approach. If you are a 1-15 team, sure. If you are in contention for a division title and simply need a solid LT and WR2, you arent "wrong" to trade up. People try and make something thats as much art as it is science into something purely scientific... It isnt.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:35 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
That’s the point of accumulating picks. You can’t know which 1 will pan out
Exactly.
One outlier draft (2017) doesn't change the mass set of data.
And the data doesn't say never trade up, just that you should trade up for QBs and superstar talents (which means top 7-ish at worst).
But otherwise, the whole thing is understanding teams aren't great at drafting. More picks gives you more bites at the apple, which is how you find those +EV scenarios.
The Saints feel that they are the outliers who can identify talent at a level that is a full deviation above all the other teams in the NFL.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:36 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
The Saints feel that they are the outliers who can identify talent at a level that is a full deviation above all the other teams in the NFL.
So in saying that, you would think they would want to own more picks then... BOOM
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