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Message
re: The purse for Chris Olave
Posted on 5/3/22 at 6:53 am to Lester Earl
Posted on 5/3/22 at 6:53 am to Lester Earl
If we are allowed to use hindsight bias and results-oriented thinking to justify the trade, how about to question the cost?
18. Penning
49. Sky Moore
80. Nakobe Dean, Malik Willis/Matt Corral, Nick Cross
98. Brian Robinson Jr., David Bell, Jeremy Ruckert, Leo Chenal, Danny Gray, Dameon Pierce
120. Brandon Smith, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Neil Farrell, Calvin Austin, Sam Howell
And the rest of our picks.
AND we have a 1st next year
AND we have a 2nd in 2023
18. Penning
49. Sky Moore
80. Nakobe Dean, Malik Willis/Matt Corral, Nick Cross
98. Brian Robinson Jr., David Bell, Jeremy Ruckert, Leo Chenal, Danny Gray, Dameon Pierce
120. Brandon Smith, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Neil Farrell, Calvin Austin, Sam Howell
And the rest of our picks.
AND we have a 1st next year
AND we have a 2nd in 2023
2
Posted on 5/3/22 at 8:22 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
18. Penning
49. Sky Moore
80. Nakobe Dean, Malik Willis/Matt Corral, Nick Cross
98. Brian Robinson Jr., David Bell, Jeremy Ruckert, Leo Chenal, Danny Gray, Dameon Pierce
120. Brandon Smith, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Neil Farrell, Calvin Austin, Sam Howell
Dean at 80 I’m sprinting the card to the podium. Moore and Bell would have been nice
This post was edited on 5/3/22 at 8:26 am
Posted on 5/3/22 at 8:51 am to H-Town Tiger
quote:
The purse for Chris Olave
Posted on 5/3/22 at 9:18 am to SlowFlowPro
I mean the amount of picks given up was crazy.
I don't understand how anyone can defend it.
The players picked aren't the problem. They are good players.
I don't understand how anyone can defend it.
The players picked aren't the problem. They are good players.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 9:33 am to Lester Earl
Why do you people even talk to Lester Earl? This is mental masturbation for him.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 9:42 am to RazzleDazzle
Why do you talk to me
Posted on 5/3/22 at 9:44 am to Chalkywhite84
quote:
I mean the amount of picks given up was crazy.
I don't understand how anyone can defend it.
The players picked aren't the problem. They are good players.
If the players reach their potential, a star receiver and an anchor at LT, then no one will care about the picks.
People complaining about the picks given up without knowing the true caliber of player we actually got for them is kind of pointless.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 10:16 am to LSUZombie
You cant tie the Philly deal to Olave. That's just dishonest. Looking at the Philly deal in a vacuum, there's a debate about the value there, but some "experts" thought it was a pretty even deal for both parties considering their individual draft goals.
As far as moving up for Olave, they clearly had him targeted and thought he wouldn't fall to 16. HOWEVER, can you honestly say, in that same moment the Wash trade was made, that they could have stayed put and been OK even if they knew they were missing out on Olave? I think the answer is "yes". Olave is not clearly better (at least a 3rd and a 4th round pick value) than other receivers who were a lock to be there at 16, IMO. I think they either got trigger happy or they aren't confident in MT coming back full strength. The Taylor pick is evidence of this. They got stuck there with Brisker off the board and had to reach for a guy because they didn't have the mid round capital to wait on him.
As far as moving up for Olave, they clearly had him targeted and thought he wouldn't fall to 16. HOWEVER, can you honestly say, in that same moment the Wash trade was made, that they could have stayed put and been OK even if they knew they were missing out on Olave? I think the answer is "yes". Olave is not clearly better (at least a 3rd and a 4th round pick value) than other receivers who were a lock to be there at 16, IMO. I think they either got trigger happy or they aren't confident in MT coming back full strength. The Taylor pick is evidence of this. They got stuck there with Brisker off the board and had to reach for a guy because they didn't have the mid round capital to wait on him.
This post was edited on 5/3/22 at 10:20 am
Posted on 5/3/22 at 10:17 am to LSUZombie
quote:
If the players reach their potential, a star receiver and an anchor at LT, then no one will care about the picks. People complaining about the picks given up without knowing the true caliber of player we actually got for them is kind of pointless.
SFP has mentioned this many times already but this is results oriented which is a poor way to judge it.
If there are any holes in the roster people will bitch about it, that they can not or will not connect the dots to giving up multiple picks for one player even if that player turns out to be a star doesn’t change the reality
This post was edited on 5/3/22 at 11:10 am
Posted on 5/3/22 at 10:49 am to LSUZombie
quote:
If the players reach their potential, a star receiver and an anchor at LT, then no one will care about the picks.
Rational people who understand analytics and economics will still care about the picks.
Irrational people who think emotionally will still, even in hindsight, defend failures of this like Marcus Davenport.
quote:
People complaining about the picks given up without knowing the true caliber of player we actually got for them is kind of pointless.
The underlying problem is that the Saints don't have any idea of "the true caliber of player" themselves.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 11:11 am to SlowFlowPro
Looking back, even if they'd stayed put at 16 and taken Dodson and Penning, there still wasnt a viable safety in the second available when they picked - and no one who can start there (or anywhere else) in the late 3rd and 4th. What they gained in frontline quality, they lost in depth. Of course I'm assuming that their goal was to snag starters at WR2, LT, and FS with the first 3 picks.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 11:13 am to Vacherie Saint
I listed Cross @ 80
Posted on 5/3/22 at 11:18 am to H-Town Tiger
18. Penning
49. Sky Moore
80. Nakobe Dean
98. Danny Gray
120. Howell
Championship
49. Sky Moore
80. Nakobe Dean
98. Danny Gray
120. Howell
Championship
Posted on 5/3/22 at 11:30 am to SlowFlowPro
Fap
Posted on 5/3/22 at 12:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 5/3/22 at 12:48 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
18. Penning
49. Sky Moore
80. Nakobe Dean
98. Danny Gray
120. Howell
heres the thing... had you suggested things might fall this way when the Saints did the deal with Philly (or Wash), you would have been laughed out of the room. Its easy to look smart when you know the outcome.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 12:51 pm to Vacherie Saint
But that’s the point you don’t know, there were other good players available at 80 besides Dean.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 12:51 pm to Vacherie Saint
quote:
Its easy to look smart when you know the outcome
Tell that to LSUZombie
quote:
had you suggested things might fall this way when the Saints did the deal with Philly (or Wash), you would have been laughed out of the room.
Well this is why the analytics say to accumulate as many draft picks as possible. You cover yourself for this sort of eventuality.
Literally just look at the Ravens every year. They sit and draft the guys who fall for no rational reason. Every. Year.
The only way to justify the opposite of that, which is how the Saints operate, is to show that you're significantly above the field in terms of talent evaluation. The Saints cannot, because no team has shown that ability. Ever. That's why the Saints get criticized so harshly for their strategy.
Posted on 5/3/22 at 1:02 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Well this is why the analytics say to accumulate as many draft picks as possible. You cover yourself for this sort of eventuality.
Im not sure I agree with this at all. If the Saints' strategy was: "we are a playoff contender with a tight window in need of 2-3 top flite starters to make a deep run", than its harder to argue with what they did. I think trading up for Olave was likely too pricey, but we'll probably never know for sure because we'd have to know their intentions.
quote:
Literally just look at the Ravens every year. They sit and draft the guys who fall for no rational reason. Every. Year.
OK? The Saints are better than the Ravens personnel wise, so I'm not sure they are the best case study to make this point. And a player falling doesnt make him a better prospect, it just makes him cheaper and more risky.
FTR, I'm neutral on the Philly deal, but I didnt love the Wash deal - even though I'm not sure they would have been much better off either way.
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