The Athletic says Davenport worth all the 1st round picks we gave up

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How much were those two draft picks worth? Well, the 27th pick had a value of 680 points, going by the guide that Jimmy Johnson put together in the early ’90s as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. The 14th pick, where the Saints would end up, held a value of 1,100 points. So the difference was 420 points. On Johnson’s chart, that’s a mid-second-round pick. The first-round pick that New Orleans gave up ended up being the 30th (620 points). If we add the two values together, we get about 1,300 points (plus about 30 points from the fifth-rounder that was added) which is the equivalent to the 10th pick in the draft.

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Essentially what this study has shown us is even if we take the value of Davenport’s draft picks and quantify him as being a “Top 10,” he is still outperforming the averages set by his peers in the 10-year study. If we take his actual draft status at 14 into consideration, he is well ahead of the established curve. Whether he is “two firsts” or just the Saints’ first-round selection of 2018, he is performing at or above the average. Not bad for a developmental draft pick.

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Here are some of the key notes from the study:

Top 10 picks
Averaged 4.40 sacks in Year 1.
Averaged 7.62 sacks in year 2.
Averaged 4.97 sacks in Year 3.
The 2011 class really disrupted the balance here. Von Miller only played nine games in Year 3 and had five sacks, down from 18.5 the year prior. Aldon Smith went from 19.5 to 8.5 Year 2 to Year 3. All of these things affected the dynamic of Year 3 results vs. Year 2 for Top 10s.

First-rounders (11-32)
Averaged 3.76 Sacks in Year 1.
Averaged 5.18 sacks in Year 2.
Averaged 5.66 sacks in Year 3.
There seems to be a lot more “boom or bust” in the Top 10 and more consistency in the later parts of the first round. On average, we see a continual progression, much like how Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan developed (1->8->12.5)

Second-rounders (33-64)
Averaged 2.91 sacks in Year 1.
Averaged 3.82 sacks in Year 2.
Averaged 4.24 sacks in Year 3.
Of 16 top-10 selections, seven made the Pro Bowl within their first three years and four were voted All-Pro. Four of these players recorded 3.5 sacks or fewer in all of their first 3 years. Of 36 first-round selection: Seven made the Pro-Bowl within their first three years and four were voted All-Pro.

For reference, here is where Davenport stands in Year 2 among his direct peers:
4.5 Sacks in year 1.
6 sacks in year 2 (through 12 games).
Tied for 17th in the NFL in total pressures with 49, per Pro Football Focus
Leads all players from the 2018 draft class in pressures
Leads all players from the 2018 draft class in forced fumbles
Leads all players from the 2018 draft class in QB hits
Second among players from the 2018 draft class in sacks

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