re: Simple way out of cap hell

I'm fine with letting Taysom run that type of offense, but for this draft, stack your other positions of need, win 5 games next year and grab a QB in the top 10 of next year's much deeper QB draft.

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Next year we are projected to start the offseason $0 to $20 over the cap

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This estimate is before we kick cans down the road THIS year, which will increase that number significantly

I agree with Saint EB's assessment. The defense is too good, the Saints personnel dept to good, and the division is too bad to finish in top 5. I still think avoiding the high cost free agent QB for one year is the way to go. It will put us in a better position next year to not have to add voidable years. Some of these players that have voidable years added will have performance decline and we will be sitting on more dead money. We need to bite the bullet for a year IMO. That was the point of the post.

Is it likely that Loomis and company do this - NO. Probably Hell no. I still think this is the prudent move for the long term.

I never stated there were no good QBS drafted after the top 10. I said most of the current top QBS were drafted in the top 10. Since we will not likely be in the top 10 we will need to try our luck drafting a sleeper. Hooker could be the answer. Maybe Richardson falls. regardless - AVOID the free agent QB unless you are looking for a back up like Bridgewater.

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Tampa is 55M over, like us.

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The difference is that can be corrected in one year.

If they restructured a bunch of contracts and added void years to get that number down over a period of 3-4 years, THEN they would be in a similar situation to the Saints, who can't even start to begin to fix our cap unless we sit on it for a year or 2.

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This team will not tank, so to speak

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Saw an interview w Shaq the other day. He was asked about Pippen’s comment saying Pippen thought he was the GOAT. They asked Shaq what he thought about the comment and he actually makes sense w why teams/players won’t tank.

Of course Pippen would say that, all players think they’re the best. It’s why the work so hard, “our egos won’t let us think otherwise”

The reality is, players are going to believe they are good enough to win. Maybe w a few pieces on the other side, the team can be better. It’s why historically shitty teams (Clev, NYJ, Det) can still get top players in FA.

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wasn't the argument. So your 65%, while an accurate calculation based off of the data you presented, isn't indicative of "most studs are top 10".

Like you said, 6 move the needle. Let's be honest, no one is clamoring for Goff, Stafford, Or Murray. All 1st overalls.

Now back to OP, I don't disagree that a drafted prospect is the better way to go, IMO. But, your reasoning is flawed. Not to mention, it doesn't necessarily mean that just because you don't sign a FA quarterback, that you'll get out of "cap hell". The term "cap hell" is relative to how you perform on the field and if you can keep your good players. And who know if Carr goes somewhere else and has a resurgence of sorts

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what metric you want to use Playoff wins?

top twenty QBs in Playoff wins?

60% 1st round picks
40% Top ten in draft


Superbowls?
33 QBs have won at least one superbowl as a starter

60% 1st Round picks
42% Top ten in draft

Overall wins?
top 20 in overall wins

70% 1st round pick
45% top 10 picks

So yeah there are exceptions. But if you want to play the odds you go get a 1st round QB and if it's a top ten QB then you have a better chance

I said this days ago. Next year is gonna be painful but with a good draft, we could still lay the groundwork for another solid team. Roll with Taysom. You can draft of get a UDFA QB. Maybe we get lucky. Most importantly, get some of those cap dollars off of the books.

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The difference is that can be corrected in one year.

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Tom Brady is carrying a 35 mil cap hit this season. How, because the Buccs do the same thing, as does every team that has to pay a QB more than 25Mil. They get under by spreading out his stuff too. Just like every other team. It will not change and they will continue to do it. Asking a team to get under doesn't matter. All of these teams with QBs coming up, Cincy, Jax, Philly, LAC will all be doing it. Look at Buff, had cap space every season under Allen, new contract, -25M this year. When fans worry about the salary cap, its stupid.

ETA: You do what you have to do to keep your good players. I'm not saying that the Saints could do better or be smarter or whatever, I'm just saying they are doing what every other "competing" team is doing, except they suck at the competing part.

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. Salary cap is about as meaningful as the national debt ceiling

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Only if you look at it short term in terms of "getting under the cap"

Look at our annual dead money and our future dead money. I don't mean potential future dead money contracts like Cam and Onyamata have automatic dead money from void years.

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shhhhhhhh you will ruin the perception that it is a Saints/Loomis only deal.

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Exactly, but we can exit this pretty quickly if we’re smart. You cut Thomas, do whatever with Kamara, and ride with Taysom for two seasons. Saints would be looking at a bunch of cap room with two years of quality draft picks to work with.