re: PFF on the Davenport trade

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Future year picks are devalued by a round.

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I know they are, but im saying even in terms if you got 27 and 30 the same year.

It barely loses on "value".

But like someone said, you're not getting 14 with 27 and 30

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Literally their only valid point

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to be fair, that is literally the point of the discussion. they also add the other picks used to fill the void. while there is certainly some hindsight, i imagine that will happen again with our current situation so the "pick issue" compounds on itself pretty hardcore (Without the hindsight bias)

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And we wound up winning that trade in value (if you go by the chart).

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i don't think that's true and, to go with their argument, certainly isn't true when we count the picks used to get eli apple

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This is definitely where they lost it. Can't play that what if game.

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i agree but we can't play the same game if davenport becomes dominant, either. it's the same logic you're attacking

that's why we have to evaluate the trade based on the decision, as well as the decision tree/choices that followed

So a couple of things.

1. It's too early to grade the trade.

2. They say it's always better to trade down. This isn't true.

If you're in a rebuild, absolutely.

We were not. We have a window with a HOF QB to get a title.

And even if you're in a rebuild, and you can trade up for a franchise quarterback you do it.

3. This is the same people who have "big time throws" as a metric for a quarterback. How you can have a metric for something completely subjective is beyond me.

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1. It's too early to grade the trade.

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if we use THAT hindsight bias, then that evaluation will always require perfect hindsight (for this move and infinite moves that followed) and it won't ever be a good trade

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This is the same people who have "big time throws" as a metric for a quarterback. How you can have a metric for something completely subjective is beyond me.

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it's not as subjective as you're making it out to be, fwiw

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We were not. We have a window with a HOF QB to get a title.

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this is exponentially more subjective than the criteria for "big time throw" used by PFF

Whether PFF considers MD the greatest pick of all time or the worst, football message boards and NFL altogether would be much better w/o PFF. It’s an absolute joke

Last year and even this year was where it was about getting as much quality as possible.

We didn't have many holes to fill and the window was closing. I think we put a lot of stock into these two drafts filling the small holes we had with the thought that 2020 we'd have to make decisions on free agents (Peat and Thomas for example) and resume our value drafting

And we aren’t drafting for win now mode, we are drafting the best players possible that can be really good for many years, even though most will take a year or 2 to blossom. MD wasn’t drafted so he could get 18 sacks his rookie year and win Brees a SB, he was drafted to do exactly what Cam Jordan has done his entire career.

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wut

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People put way too much stock in PFF. Football isn’t complicated, there may be some accuracy with QB grades but especially linemen and DBs there can be a lot of inaccuracies in their grades no matter how much they tell you there isn’t. The best way to know if a player is good is to watch them play for yourself, it will probably be more accurate than PFF. Even coaches and players many times have mocked PFF, so have scouts and other sports analysts. It’s far from the end all be all

I agree too many people treat their rankings as gospel but I still wouldn’t say it’s an absolute joke though. They’re still the only ones who watch a lot of tape of all the players. Their grades just have to be seen as a another metric, not a an end all be all. Plus their individual stats like yards before contact, missed tackle %, QB pressures, etc. can be helpful.

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s your assumption that they don't?

and how many people on message boards break down the All 22 film you reckon?

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I know they can't be perfect and wouldn't expect them to be. But there have been quite a few cases where players were graded bad, for instance CBs or S, because it appeared their man caught the ball when in reality it wasn't their man. For instance, the CB I can't remember his name, had him I believe 2016 and 17, journeyman DB. He was graded bad from a TD bomb he supposedly gave up, Vacarro came out and said that was his fault not the CB, Dennis Allen confirmed that during the interview later in the week. That kind of stuff happens all the time.

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sure. but this isn't what you said. you said it was a "joke"

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I agree maybe I shouldn't have used the word joke. I'm meaning more in it's a joke how often people live and die with their argument and PFF is their gospel, I just don't get it. But you are correct I stated PFF is a joke, I should have added more context.