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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
49846 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
People are talking about Zion like he's a generational talent, so I don't see a problem with building around him. The bottom line is that whether they take the Knicks or Celtics deal, they should have enough extra assets to have a properly built foundation rather than a shaky foundation.

If Zion isn't in the mix then going with the Knicks does feel like going the wrong direction. A non generational talent will be as good as Tatum at best. You can get Tatum plus have Jrue/Smart plus your own young guys ready to contribute in Frank/Jah/Kenrich plus the 3-4 picks you get from Boston. Without Zion I don't see how the Knicks young guys and picks would lead to a better situation than that unless the team was actually willing to tank until the double draft in 2021, and all reports suggest they aren't willing to do that.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 8:04 am


Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
314 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
I think Ja Morant is a another borderline talent given the way the league has gravitated with the way guards/small forwards affect winning compared to often more talented big men.

But your point is a good one.

If the Knicks don't get number 1 or 2 they aren't the most viable partner.


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Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
4291 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
I think the Knicks deal could beat the Boston deal IF you can get the right package for Jrue.

Lets say Knicks get #2 and are willing to give it all -- DSJ, Knox, #2 or 3, their picks for a few years and both Mavs picks.

Now, let's say the Suns fall to #4 and they are tired of getting 19 year olds just to lose 65 games. So, they are willing to do Tyler Johnson and #4 for Jrue.

Now, lets assume your own pick is #9. You grab Ja Morant or RJ 2/3 and Cam Reddish at 4. Grab Jaxson Hayes or Bol Bol at #9. Or take a shot on Sekou

Here's the X Factor -- You take the Knicks deal and you will stink in 2020. You take the Celtics deal and you will be a decent, if not playoff, team in 2020.

So, that has to be factored into the trade. You have to look at it as: With Knicks trade, I get another top 5 pick in 2020. Maybe even #1. With Celtics deal, its very possible I never get another high pick again.

Its low floor/super high ceiling (Knicks deal+trading Jrue) vs. high floor/kinda high ceiling (Celtics deal). You take the Celtics deal and the only way I ever see the Pels becoming a real contender is if that Grizzlies pick lands top 3 in 2021. I don't see any other way you can get a star
This post was edited on 2/12 at 8:44 am


Brettesaurus Rex
New Orleans Saints Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2009
35560 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
If you get Tatum, him and Jrue will be a very solid core that will compete in most games. Plus whatever else.

I love the ideo of Zion and all those high picks, but you're counting on rookies growing up and meshing well together. If the Celtics offer everything, I'm not sure I take the Knicks offer even with #1.


Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
4291 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
Again, it depends on what the goal is and what the level of risk tolerance is

The Boston deal never gets you to title contender status IMO. Unless the Memphis pick lands at 1 or 2 in 2021

The Knicks deal and the subsequent trade of Jrue makes you BAD in the short term. And yes, it can go real bad if the young guys don't mesh and the culture becomes a shite show. But the ceiling is much higher. If you hit on the picks in 2019, and then stink in 2020 and get another elite guy plus have all that future draft capital, then you have a chance to build a real contender.

I don't think this franchise has the willingness, nor the infrastructure to take that path, but in theory, it is a rational path to take


touchdownjeebus
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2010
10908 posts
 Online 

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
The Celtics deal still gives you plenty of flexibility to trade or acquire that last piece via FA. I find it hard to believe that a team with Jrue, Tatum, smart/brown, and whatever piece we can develop out of Williams/Jackson/jah/picks couldn’t attract a FA to compete for a title.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 9:18 am


Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
4291 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
You would need more than A single piece to compete for a title. That team would still be a couple of pieces and stars away. And I don't know how many times it has to be shown that no matter what level of talent you have in New Orleans, you aren't getting a star to sign here, or even be asked to be traded here.

The team had two of the most desirable players to play with, in their primes, and nobody wanted to come here. Players aren't going to be salivating to come to NOLA because you have Jrue and Tatum.

The Celtics path makes you Utah, possibly, over the next few years. Which is nice and sustainable. But the only small chance you have of being a real contender is if that Memphis pick produces a star or mega star.


Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
4291 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
Best way I can summarize it is:

I think Celtics trade gives you a realistic floor of what the Clippers were this year before trading Tobias and a ceiling of what Utah is when they are rolling plus the small chance that the Memphis pick gives you another stud

Knicks trade has a ceiling of OKC before they lost everyone or Philly now, but has a floor of current Phoenix or Chicago.

It's all about risk tolerance.


Hazelnut
LA-Lafayette Fan
Choclate City
Member since May 2011
14850 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
quote:

Best way I can summarize it is:

I think Celtics trade gives you a realistic floor of what the Clippers were this year before trading Tobias and a ceiling of what Utah is when they are rolling plus the small chance that the Memphis pick gives you another stud

Knicks trade has a ceiling of OKC before they lost everyone or Philly now, but has a floor of current Phoenix or Chicago.

It's all about risk tolerance.


Which way would you see management leaning if these are their options?

I feel like based on how you've described what their goal is, they would want the Celtics (high floor/kinda high ceiling) over a riskier move with a higher ceiling. But I also believe I've heard you say they'd value picks 1 or 2 over Tatum


Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
4291 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
They would only go Knicks route if they get #1 IMO. And it's as much for Zion's marketability as on the court stuff. If the Knicks land any other pick, I would bet the trade is with Boston.


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touchdownjeebus
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2010
10908 posts
 Online 

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
If they land the first pick, do you think the FO moves Jrue and goes with a plan similar to yours?

Man, I really don’t wanna suck, but if the end result is a potential long term title contender I wanna suck, lol.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 9:56 am


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Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
314 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
quote:

Best way I can summarize it is:

I think Celtics trade gives you a realistic floor of what the Clippers were this year before trading Tobias and a ceiling of what Utah is when they are rolling plus the small chance that the Memphis pick gives you another stud

Knicks trade has a ceiling of OKC before they lost everyone or Philly now, but has a floor of current Phoenix or Chicago.

It's all about risk tolerance.


I almost 100% agree with you with one caveat.

I think the Memphis pick should be a really important component of any deal. It seems like with where they are trending it very well could be an unprotected first rounder on a rebuilding Memphis team during the double draft year.


LouisianaJoseph
LSU Fan
Denver
Member since Apr 2018
294 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
Melo (albeit past his prime) wanted to join Westbrook and George. What do you think is different about that situation and why he was ok with a small market? Is OKC a unique situation or is their front office and ownership looked upon as that much better than ours. I can't accept the idea that we'll never be a destination ya know.


CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
34903 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
quote:

I can't accept the idea that we'll never be a destination ya know.



We could be a destination with a new front office.

The Pels have the worst Front office in the NBA.


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Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
4291 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
I am not here to knock down the dreams of optimists (any more). So, if you want to hope for that, go for it. I just look at the past and also look at how players and agents view our franchise. Sure, that could change but it would take close to a decade IMO. So, if your plan during the Jrue window is to attract a FA that matters, I would put the odds of that at 500:1


SCLSUMuddogs
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
5000 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
Yeah, the hype around AD was pretty insane. He was the list sure thing to come out of the draft since lebron


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Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
4291 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
Memphis could also really stink next year and keep the pick and then in 2021, led by jaren Jackson, their stud 2020 pick, the guys they got from Conley trade and all the new guys they have now that Conley and Parsons are off the books -- the Grizzlies are back and are fighting for the 8th seed. Kind of like the Kings pick this year. Just as Boston thought they would get this awesome pick, they are probably looking at the 14th or 18th pick.

To me, that scenario is more likely to me than getting a top 3 pick from Memphis in 2021. Because Memphis will know they can't keep that pick, so they will be trying while others are tanking. They will add players while others subtract. If given the choice of getting say the 8th pick in 2020 or letting it ride and getting Memphis pick unprotected in 2021, I might take the 8th pick. Thats how little I believe Memphis will allow themselves to be horrible in 2020-21


NOSHAU
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Feb 2012
4820 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
quote:

They would only go Knicks route if they get #1 IMO. And it's as much for Zion's marketability as on the court stuff. If the Knicks land any other pick, I would bet the trade is with Boston.


I think you are right in that the front office is probably salivating at the marketability of Zion. As good a player as Tatum is, he is not nearly as marketable as Zion.


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CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
34903 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
quote:

I am not here to knock down the dreams of optimists (any more). So, if you want to hope for that, go for it. I just look at the past and also look at how players and agents view our franchise. Sure, that could change but it would take close to a decade IMO. So, if your plan during the Jrue window is to attract a FA that matters, I would put the odds of that at 500:1



Possible with a new front office.

With current front office zero chance.


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NOSHAU
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Feb 2012
4820 posts

re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"
quote:

Memphis could also really stink next year and keep the pick and then in 2021, led by jaren Jackson, their stud 2020 pick, the guys they got from Conley trade and all the new guys they have now that Conley and Parsons are off the books -- the Grizzlies are back and are fighting for the 8th seed. Kind of like the Kings pick this year. Just as Boston thought they would get this awesome pick, they are probably looking at the 14th or 18th pick.

To me, that scenario is more likely to me than getting a top 3 pick from Memphis in 2021. Because Memphis will know they can't keep that pick, so they will be trying while others are tanking. They will add players while others subtract. If given the choice of getting say the 8th pick in 2020 or letting it ride and getting Memphis pick unprotected in 2021, I might take the 8th pick. Thats how little I believe Memphis will allow themselves to be horrible in 2020-21
Do you think the potential allure of it being unprotected in 2021 makes it an even more valuable trade asset next year for a player they may be able to acquire at the deadline?


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