re: Windhorst: "The gossip is Tatum wouldn't mind if he's shipped to NOLA"

I think the Knicks deal could beat the Boston deal IF you can get the right package for Jrue.

Lets say Knicks get #2 and are willing to give it all -- DSJ, Knox, #2 or 3, their picks for a few years and both Mavs picks.

Now, let's say the Suns fall to #4 and they are tired of getting 19 year olds just to lose 65 games. So, they are willing to do Tyler Johnson and #4 for Jrue.

Now, lets assume your own pick is #9. You grab Ja Morant or RJ 2/3 and Cam Reddish at 4. Grab Jaxson Hayes or Bol Bol at #9. Or take a shot on Sekou

Here's the X Factor -- You take the Knicks deal and you will stink in 2020. You take the Celtics deal and you will be a decent, if not playoff, team in 2020.

So, that has to be factored into the trade. You have to look at it as: With Knicks trade, I get another top 5 pick in 2020. Maybe even #1. With Celtics deal, its very possible I never get another high pick again.

Its low floor/super high ceiling (Knicks deal+trading Jrue) vs. high floor/kinda high ceiling (Celtics deal). You take the Celtics deal and the only way I ever see the Pels becoming a real contender is if that Grizzlies pick lands top 3 in 2021. I don't see any other way you can get a star

Again, it depends on what the goal is and what the level of risk tolerance is

The Boston deal never gets you to title contender status IMO. Unless the Memphis pick lands at 1 or 2 in 2021

The Knicks deal and the subsequent trade of Jrue makes you BAD in the short term. And yes, it can go real bad if the young guys don't mesh and the culture becomes a shite show. But the ceiling is much higher. If you hit on the picks in 2019, and then stink in 2020 and get another elite guy plus have all that future draft capital, then you have a chance to build a real contender.

I don't think this franchise has the willingness, nor the infrastructure to take that path, but in theory, it is a rational path to take

You would need more than A single piece to compete for a title. That team would still be a couple of pieces and stars away. And I don't know how many times it has to be shown that no matter what level of talent you have in New Orleans, you aren't getting a star to sign here, or even be asked to be traded here.

The team had two of the most desirable players to play with, in their primes, and nobody wanted to come here. Players aren't going to be salivating to come to NOLA because you have Jrue and Tatum.

The Celtics path makes you Utah, possibly, over the next few years. Which is nice and sustainable. But the only small chance you have of being a real contender is if that Memphis pick produces a star or mega star.

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Best way I can summarize it is:

I think Celtics trade gives you a realistic floor of what the Clippers were this year before trading Tobias and a ceiling of what Utah is when they are rolling plus the small chance that the Memphis pick gives you another stud

Knicks trade has a ceiling of OKC before they lost everyone or Philly now, but has a floor of current Phoenix or Chicago.

It's all about risk tolerance.

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Which way would you see management leaning if these are their options?

I feel like based on how you've described what their goal is, they would want the Celtics (high floor/kinda high ceiling) over a riskier move with a higher ceiling. But I also believe I've heard you say they'd value picks 1 or 2 over Tatum

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Best way I can summarize it is:

I think Celtics trade gives you a realistic floor of what the Clippers were this year before trading Tobias and a ceiling of what Utah is when they are rolling plus the small chance that the Memphis pick gives you another stud

Knicks trade has a ceiling of OKC before they lost everyone or Philly now, but has a floor of current Phoenix or Chicago.

It's all about risk tolerance.

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I almost 100% agree with you with one caveat.

I think the Memphis pick should be a really important component of any deal. It seems like with where they are trending it very well could be an unprotected first rounder on a rebuilding Memphis team during the double draft year.

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I can't accept the idea that we'll never be a destination ya know.

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We could be a destination with a new front office.

The Pels have the worst Front office in the NBA.

Yeah, the hype around AD was pretty insane. He was the list sure thing to come out of the draft since lebron

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They would only go Knicks route if they get #1 IMO. And it's as much for Zion's marketability as on the court stuff. If the Knicks land any other pick, I would bet the trade is with Boston.

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I think you are right in that the front office is probably salivating at the marketability of Zion. As good a player as Tatum is, he is not nearly as marketable as Zion.

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Memphis could also really stink next year and keep the pick and then in 2021, led by jaren Jackson, their stud 2020 pick, the guys they got from Conley trade and all the new guys they have now that Conley and Parsons are off the books -- the Grizzlies are back and are fighting for the 8th seed. Kind of like the Kings pick this year. Just as Boston thought they would get this awesome pick, they are probably looking at the 14th or 18th pick.

To me, that scenario is more likely to me than getting a top 3 pick from Memphis in 2021. Because Memphis will know they can't keep that pick, so they will be trying while others are tanking. They will add players while others subtract. If given the choice of getting say the 8th pick in 2020 or letting it ride and getting Memphis pick unprotected in 2021, I might take the 8th pick. Thats how little I believe Memphis will allow themselves to be horrible in 2020-21

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Do you think the potential allure of it being unprotected in 2021 makes it an even more valuable trade asset next year for a player they may be able to acquire at the deadline?