re: Still blows my mind Dumars traded an unprotected 1st to move up 10 spots

quote:

---

Its paying a ridiculous price to do it, a price that no competent front office would have given up to move from 23 to 13. Its not the attempt to be aggressive and try to win now, its the fact that we got bent over by Atlanta, a deal that the entire league is laughing about. Its really not that hard to get.

---

I do not believe we get the deal done without an unprotected 1st. It is pure conjecture to believe we could.

I do not care about the rest of the league. They believe we should tear it down, trade everyone and stockpile picks.

You want a safety net. I do not. I do not want any reason for this team to tank again. It's playoffs or bust. I can live with that and it makes sense to me.

quote:

---

And it’s worse than just that. They were so fixated on getting Queen they happily and hurriedly gave up the Pacers pick next year to jump in this year. And that pick has infinitely more value now with 2/3 of their best players gone from last year. If Queen doesn’t turn into something, Dumars and his boy Weaver need to be shown the door asap. Way to big of a gamble. If shite goes sideways, could have Fears and possibly two top ten picks next year to build around plus whatever we ship Zion out for. Now if shite goes bad, we get to see the Hawks laugh more to the bank after bending us over in the DD deal.

---

Your right Dumars and Weaver went all in on this new core. However, a more positive way to look at it is if it works than we are winning and don’t care about what was gave up. If it doesn’t, then they are gone and we start over.

It’s like not Zion was leading us to a consistent playoff team beforehand lol.

quote:

---

It's playoffs or bust. I can live with that and it makes sense to me.

---

Good, hopefully you will join the chorus to sell the team when we bust.

Crazy, management didnt stop the trade.

quote:

---

How many threads whining about the trade do you think this board needs?

---

It would be different if we knew that it failed. But right now, they are all just guessing.

The Pacers, without Haliburton, probably still make the playoffs.
The Bucks are going to be a top 6 seed in the East.
We are project over 30 wins and have a good shot at the play-in.

So, the pick, or picks, have a greater probability of ending up in the teens or later. If that happens, then we won. You can buy a pick in the 20's, they aren't that valuable. The Nets drafted 4 guys from 19-26 this year and people think they did awful. None of them are being counted on to play a major role for them. What did we really give up, at this point, other than a lottery ticket?

quote:

---

Agreed, but can we all agree that Dumars leading us to the WCF or further are improbable (@ best)

---

Considering we've never done that, it would be improbable no matter who was in charge.

Took a page from Loomis. Trade an extra 1st to move up 5 spots.

quote:

---

The Hawks could have been very willing to add protections but the Pels blinked first.

---

I want to explore this in depth and settle this once and for all. I have detached myself from my homerism and tried to see this from both sides.

So the deal is for an unprotected 1st from the best pick out of the Pelicans and Bucks. People believe we could have put protections for the top 4 or 5. So the Hawks would only receive the selection if it fell 5 or 6-29. In exchange the Hawks moved down from #13 to #23. I think we can all agree that the only way the Hawks benefited from the trade is if the selection falls in the top 12 next year. If it falls #13 or later, then they are better off taking the better player this past draft.

So, if they need to get a top 12 pick next year, why would they allow protections that cut out at least 1/3 of the possibilities? Both the Pelicans and Bucks are projected for 30+ wins. The chances they're picks land 6-12 are very minimal. But they would have some opportunity to land a top 4 pick if one or both miss the playoffs (lottery odds). That is the whole appeal of the trade is to acquire those odds and extra opportunities. That's why we would want to keep them, but it's the reason they wanted the deal.

My conclusion is that the trade doesn't happen without no protections. If we miss the playoffs, they will have a sub 10% chance at a top 4 selection. Which could happen. So we are betting over 90% that Queen becomes something special or just better than Asa Newell. I'm comfortable with that gamble. I understand that some aren't. But are we all using the same logic?

quote:

---

Wait, so we are projected to win 32-33 games (32.5) and you think in a loaded West, that gets us into the play-in? That is tied for 3rd worst record projection in the West (only behind Utah and Phoenix).

---

I typed all of that and that's what you took from it?

We are projected to come in 11th (tied with Portland). 10 teams make the play-in, so that would be close. Personally I think we end up winning over 36 and wind up in the top 10. I believe there are a couple of teams that will get hit with injuries and end up tanking at the end (I'm looking directly at old teams like the Clippers and Warriors)..