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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.

Posted on 2/22/21 at 8:51 am to
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115964 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 8:51 am to
He is playing really really well right now. Like, pay him his money well.

But that is the issue with Lonzo, he is streaky.

If he keeps it up, then I guess we need to try to keep him.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30112 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 8:57 am to
If he keeps up, 20mil per year isn't unreasonable now. You can build with that with how point zion has turned things around.

The Bledsoe and jj money needs to either grab another 3pt shooter or a ball handler who can knock down a 3
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61517 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 8:58 am to
quote:

My issue with Lonzo is still the same, while I think he's playing well right now, how do you pay him what he's going to ask? I just don't see how you can do that and feel good about it.


I think you try like hell between now and the moratorium to find an alternate solution. But the fact is this team probably needs one more 3&D wing in addition to Lonzo and Hart, so going down to just Hart would be bad for winning.

If I had to talk myself into signing Lonzo I'd say
- He has a reputation as a hard worker and has shown good improvement as a Pel
- He seems to be embracing his role as a 3&D Wing and that will be a key to optimizing his talent
- His biggest road block looks to be confidence/decisiveness when shooting inside, that can be fixed.

If you can't find a good deal or a good alternative in FA, I think you have to resign him and hope for the best.
Posted by LilWezyAna
BR
Member since Feb 2016
3141 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:02 am to
quote:

Like, pay him his money well

Even playing the way he is right now, I would only be confident in a big-ish contract for him if Griffin fixes the roster with him. I think we need a legit 2 who can create very well and/or shoot very well in the halfcourt. I know we all hope for point Zion to get the assist numbers up and for BI to be a creator, but I think teams need a smaller, quicker outside presence to help run an offense.

Maybe this option could be on the team, like Kira playing PG and Lonzo being a legit 3&D and off the ball on offense, or maybe even NAW if he got like, light-years better. This option could also be via trade or free agency, but if Lonzo is a long term piece, I think we need an offensive presence at either the PG or SG position, whichever Lonzo doesn't play
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:06 am to
quote:

My issue with Lonzo is still the same, while I think he's playing well right now, how do you pay him what he's going to ask? I just don't see how you can do that and feel good about it.


Same.

I just don’t see how you can pay a guy 20-25 million who is still so limited offensively.

I still want to see some more consistency in his shot(he’ll be hot one quarter then disappear for the rest of the game at times) and he still has a ways to go in terms of attacking..but I do like the steady progress he is showing. And his defense is quickly approaching elite levels.

If he were to command something closer to Marcus Smart I’d be all for it, but I have a sneaking suspicion this is going to be a Eric Gordon type situation and someone like Chicago is going to throw 2nd option type money at him and he’ll signal heavily that he wants to be let go so he can get to his all important glamor market
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61517 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:07 am to
quote:

I know we all hope for point Zion to get the assist numbers up and for BI to be a creator, but I think teams need a smaller, quicker outside presence to help run an offense.


Kira has 37 assists to 8 turnovers so far. Defenses just can't keep up with him. I loved the play from a few games ago where he drove down the side of the lane and turned baseline while BI cut to the basket from the opposite corner for the easy score. It might take him another year or 2 to get where they need him to be, but he looks like he can fill the creator role the team has been missing.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35349 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:12 am to
quote:

his all important glamor market


Has there ever been any indication that lonzo specifically desires a big market?
Posted by LilWezyAna
BR
Member since Feb 2016
3141 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:13 am to
I hope Kira can be the answer. A lineup of:

1-2 years down the road Kira
Current version of lonzo
Alpha BI
Zion after learning more defensive experience
Center = ?

How good does that center have to be to make that starting lineup a contender down the road?
Posted by CP3forMVP
Member since Nov 2010
14911 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:15 am to
Kira is definitely one of the guys that needs minutes. If he's struggling, to a certain degree, keep running him out there to work out the issues. Development
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:19 am to
quote:

Has there ever been any indication that lonzo specifically desires a big market?


I mean there are all the current rumors about the Chicago interest seemingly coming heavily from Lonzo’s camp, and the entirety of Lonzo's family background of wanting to build their collective and personal brands.

Then there were the rumors out of LA the other year that he would have liked to be moved to either Chicago or New York if he was included in any AD trade.

So there is this continuing theme with Lonzo about wanting to get to either Chicago or New York
This post was edited on 2/22/21 at 9:20 am
Posted by LesGeaux45
Member since Nov 2009
9232 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:25 am to
The guy just hasn't proven he can do this on a consistent basis. And it's not even like he goes through lulls here and there where he's not playing at an elite level. When he's bad, it's "will this guy be playing in China this time next year" kind of bad. He's such a high variance player that committing long term money to him is a huge risk.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30112 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:33 am to
quote:

I just don’t see how you can pay a guy 20-25 million who is still so limited offensively.


I think part of it is going to be the nature of
1. Location
2. Who you're dealing with (Klutch)
3. Demand/need for 3&D (who can also ball handle in spurts)
4. Youth

Fred VanVleet set that market for us honestly.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25631 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 9:57 am to
quote:

Fred VanVleet set that market for us honestly.




Lonzo is not VanVleet, or Brogdon. They can create offense for themselves, and others, can actually finish in the paint, and have been more consistent from 3 in their career. THey are also both better defenders.

Lonzo's defensive rating has gotten worst every year in the league. We just watched Lavine, Luka and Lillard score 40+, Morant score 28 on 75% shooting, and Tatum score over 30. You can use the excuse that he wasn't guarding them the whole game, but as the best defender on our team, it's his job to stay with them and slow them down, and he's rarely done anything to slow down the opposing teams best perimeter player.

I'm not saying Lonzo is a bad defender, but he's not capable of being our best perimeter defender and we be successful. I would think most of you can see the vast difference between Lonzo and an elite defender, like Jrue.


I'll ask again since no one had a response the first time i asked it a few weeks ago.
What is the difference between Lonzo and $13M/yr KCP who shoots $40% from 3 the last 2 years and plays good defense?



Right now Lonzo is our 3rd scoring option, and best perimeter defender. He simply cannot be that for us and we be successful. We need a legit 3rd scoring option, and we need a perimeter defender capable of slowing down the opposing teams best player. I'm not saying we need a Jrue/Lillard type performance every night. I understand you're not going to shut down the opposing teams best player night in night out. Nothing about scoring 40+ is slowing them down though. Jaylen Brown scoring 25 on 7-23 shooting is good defense.

If you're going to give Lonzo $20m/yr, then you expect him to play shut down defense when it counts, and you expect him to score when the ball is forced out of BI and Zion's hands late in the game. Can he do that? He's shooting 32% from 3 in the 4th quarter this year, 38% overall in the 4th quarter.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
11923 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:01 am to
quote:

I just don’t see how you can pay a guy 20-25 million who is still so limited offensively.
I agree with you that $20-$25 million is high for him. However, how can you say he is so limited offensively? Did you see what Bogdanovic and Harris got this offseason? Are they not more limited offensively than Ball? Both got $18 million or more for doing one thing well. Sadly, the market will say he is worth that or more.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61517 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:06 am to
quote:

I'm not saying Lonzo is a bad defender, but he's not capable of being our best perimeter defender and we be successful.


Does he have hope of becoming that? He has definitely improved this year. I wonder if he needs to put on a little weight and get stronger to become a lock down defender.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25631 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:07 am to
Bogdanvich is a scorer, not just a shooter.
Harris is the best 3 point shooter in the nba. He's a career 44% 3 point shooter, shooting 50% this year, and every defense knows what he's doing. He creates offense and space without ever touching the ball.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25631 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:09 am to
quote:

He has definitely improved this year.


has he?
how are you judging that?

Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115964 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:11 am to
quote:

still want to see some more consistency in his shot(he’ll be hot one quarter then disappear for the rest of the game at times)


This is my biggest issue with him currently.

People will see that he had 17 points and was 4/5 from deep and say "wow" he was great.

The Problem will often be he was 4/4 in the 1st quarter and then didn't make another the rest of the game. At least that's what it feels like.

He is still young and it does feel like he improves yearly.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61517 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:17 am to
quote:

has he?
how are you judging that?


The eye test. I just see better effort and positioning. He did not pass the eye test well last year on defense.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25631 posts
Posted on 2/22/21 at 10:20 am to
quote:

People will see that he had 17 points and was 4/5 from deep and say "wow" he was great.

The Problem will often be he was 4/4 in the 1st quarter and then didn't make another the rest of the game. At least that's what it feels like.



he was 2-8 after the 1st quarter yesterday 0-3 in the 4th, but he finished with 16 (14 in the 1st half) on 3-6 shooting from 3 so box score watchers loved his game last night.

32% from 3 in the 4th quarters this year, 38% from the field.
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