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Honest Opinion on Zion's Rookie Year
Posted on 8/13/19 at 9:49 pm
Posted on 8/13/19 at 9:49 pm
Based on the hype, and that some analysis are projecting him to average 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game, what do you all actually think he will do in his first year?
For reference, since 1989, only 15 Rookies have averaged those numbers in their first season including Blake Griffin, Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons, Chris Paul, LeBron James, Grant Hill, Chris Webber, and Anfernee Hardaway.
For reference, since 1989, only 15 Rookies have averaged those numbers in their first season including Blake Griffin, Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons, Chris Paul, LeBron James, Grant Hill, Chris Webber, and Anfernee Hardaway.
12
Posted on 8/13/19 at 9:54 pm to tadelatt
16, 8, 4
IMO
IMO
Posted on 8/13/19 at 10:03 pm to tadelatt
Far as numbers, I'm gonna go somewhere around 15/6/3/2(steals)
His personal impact will be greater than his numbers. I feel like the bulk of people just don't get how good a ball handler and defender he already is. He's not going to be asked to even guard other teams' best players. We have Lonzo, Jrue, and even Brandon Ingram for that. Zion will be the guy who gets to switch and aggressively swipe at passing lanes.
He can absolutely feast so long as health doesn't become an issue.
But I can see him having a lot of nights where he's in foul trouble or just isn't getting buckets, whereas I really, really, really feel like NAW has the potential to be a problem. He looked WAY more advanced than expected in summer league. And not in a "he's playing against scrubs" kinda advanced, I mean, he made passes and skilled moves no one except Jrue was pulling.
His personal impact will be greater than his numbers. I feel like the bulk of people just don't get how good a ball handler and defender he already is. He's not going to be asked to even guard other teams' best players. We have Lonzo, Jrue, and even Brandon Ingram for that. Zion will be the guy who gets to switch and aggressively swipe at passing lanes.
He can absolutely feast so long as health doesn't become an issue.
But I can see him having a lot of nights where he's in foul trouble or just isn't getting buckets, whereas I really, really, really feel like NAW has the potential to be a problem. He looked WAY more advanced than expected in summer league. And not in a "he's playing against scrubs" kinda advanced, I mean, he made passes and skilled moves no one except Jrue was pulling.
Posted on 8/13/19 at 10:13 pm to Eman5805
I think he will be 19 and 10 due to our fast pace. Rookie of the year and might sneak into all star game due to such a huge following.
Posted on 8/13/19 at 10:37 pm to tadelatt
I think particularly in this fast paced offense he maybe could push 18/19 PPG.
Posted on 8/13/19 at 10:46 pm to Eman5805
I think he will be at about 14/8/2 at around 28mpg. Lots of highlight dunks and spectacular plays. But they will hold him back a bit and limit his minutes/touches..
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:06 am to tadelatt
22/10
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:14 am to tadelatt
I don’t know if the numbers will be all that high because they don’t need to be. Jrue, Favors and Redick are veterans who can do their own damage. Ball and Ingram are young vets who need to have their own breakout seasons. I think Zion will be brought along a little slowly and will have highlight plays but not all star numbers. Probably a 12/5/5 type season is what’s in store IMO.
My hope is he starts coming on at the end of the season showing that he’s starting to learn the NBA game and tricks of the trade.
My hope is he starts coming on at the end of the season showing that he’s starting to learn the NBA game and tricks of the trade.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:14 am to tadelatt
26/14 if I’m being honest with myself.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:51 am to BigPerm30
quote:
26/14 if I’m being honest with myself.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 7:56 am to tadelatt
quote:I think this is about right. He's going to get a lot of hustle points, IMO. Transition, offensive rebounds, and free throws will be his "easy" points. I don't know how many offensive sets they are going to run for him, but that shouldn't really matter because he'll score a good amount of points from "easy" points.
18 points, 8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:30 am to tadelatt
there are a lot of options on this team...i think hes under with points but over on rebs
Posted on 8/14/19 at 10:45 am to BigPerm30
quote:
26/14 if I’m being honest with myself.
100%
LETs
frickING
RIDEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:02 am to SLafourche07
22 point a game? Yo i wanna know where these 22 points is coming from. Cuz it isn't gonna be all that from dunks....and it takes more than one year to develop a consistent jumper if you don't have one and he don't have one.15 a game. Other phases of his game will be great.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:59 am to southsidedell
quote:
Cuz it isn't gonna be all that from dunks
Of course not.
Dunks, put backs, transition (may be a dunk), occasional 3 pointers, free throws.
How else do people score points?
quote:
and it takes more than one year to develop a consistent jumper if you don't have one and he don't have one.
I think people are falling into the same trap that occurred AD's rookie year. AD didn't have a jump shot either. But guess what? He actually did, he just didn't need to display it often in college. If you're that physically dominant over everyone why settle for a jump shot when you can get to the rim at will?
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:01 pm to dagrippa
quote:
there are a lot of options on this team
But I think this helps him.
With AD there was no one else.
With Zion there are a ton of options to draw defenders away from him, AND we're supposed to be running the fastest pace ever so there will be points to go around.
ETA: AD was 13/8 playing 29/mpg.
If you compare Zion more to Blake Griffin 22/12 38/mpg, I think that's more likely with probably a few less minutes because we're so deep.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:33 pm to SLafourche07
quote:
ETA: AD was 13/8 playing 29/mpg.
If you compare Zion more to Blake Griffin 22/12 38/mpg, I think that's more likely with probably a few less minutes because we're so deep.
We also played at the 29th rated pace for AD.
The hard #s will be there for zion if we're gonna play at a top 5 pace
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:52 pm to htran90
quote:Right, last season the Pelicans averaged 106.8 possessions per game. If the Hornets played at that pace his rookie season, and he played the same amount of minutes and kept the same efficiency he would've scored ~16 points per game.
We also played at the 29th rated pace for AD.
The hard #s will be there for zion if we're gonna play at a top 5 pace
I don't see Zion scoring less than AD in his rookie season.
Posted on 8/14/19 at 8:27 pm to tadelatt
I think OP hit the nail on the head. I think he averages 18/8/4. I could see him getting more points too.
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