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re: Cunningham back to Pels... 3 yrs/$9M
Posted on 7/5/15 at 9:52 am to corndeaux
Posted on 7/5/15 at 9:52 am to corndeaux
All I am saying is that calling this a '45 win team' is a little lazy.
If Cole, Q-Pon, and DC are on the team from the start and you simulate the season 100 times, what is the average number of wins you think we see over those 100 simulations?
My guess (because we can't possibly know) would be at least 50 wins. Not 45. IMO, we are not bringing back a 45 win team. Just like Atlanta wasn't bringing back a 38 win team last year.
If Cole, Q-Pon, and DC are on the team from the start and you simulate the season 100 times, what is the average number of wins you think we see over those 100 simulations?
My guess (because we can't possibly know) would be at least 50 wins. Not 45. IMO, we are not bringing back a 45 win team. Just like Atlanta wasn't bringing back a 38 win team last year.
2
Posted on 7/5/15 at 10:14 am to Crewz
That's 1/3 of a season Corn. I don't think it's that lazy.
The QPon sample size is much larger and still closer to a 49 win team.
Add in the coaching upgrades, status quo might not necessarily be such a terrible thing here. This was about as perfect of an offseason as the Pels' faithful could have hoped for in my opinion.
ETA: Minus LMA to the damn Spurs. The rest of the WC moves made us better too.
The QPon sample size is much larger and still closer to a 49 win team.
Add in the coaching upgrades, status quo might not necessarily be such a terrible thing here. This was about as perfect of an offseason as the Pels' faithful could have hoped for in my opinion.
ETA: Minus LMA to the damn Spurs. The rest of the WC moves made us better too.
This post was edited on 7/5/15 at 10:30 am
Posted on 7/5/15 at 10:16 am to Crewz
quote:
My guess (because we can't possibly know) would be at least 50 wins. Not 45. IMO, we are not bringing back a 45 win team. Just like Atlanta wasn't bringing back a 38 win team last year.
I agree with that completely. With reasonable health, less than 50 should be a bit of a disappointment. I'm not expecting a Warriors/Atlanta jump, but there should be improvement.
Like I said, I may have just been misunderstanding what was said.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 10:47 am to ShamelessPel
SP, I don't think it's wrong to say the bench is vastly improved from even a year ago. I do think it's a stretch to extrapolate that 28 game roster to a .64 winning % over an 82 game season. But, I may have totally misunderstood the point.
I agree completely. No real problems with what they did this summer at all. Like many, others I think they still need a 2nd guy to pair with Davis. But there's time to find him. Running it back with better coaching and health is the best play they had. And they should be pretty good this year.
quote:
Add in the coaching upgrades, status quo might not necessarily be such a terrible thing here.
I agree completely. No real problems with what they did this summer at all. Like many, others I think they still need a 2nd guy to pair with Davis. But there's time to find him. Running it back with better coaching and health is the best play they had. And they should be pretty good this year.
This post was edited on 7/5/15 at 10:49 am
Posted on 7/5/15 at 11:21 am to corndeaux
Forget other people's points. Here is my question to you - Your opinion only. No right, no wrong. What do you think this team's record would have been if Q-Pon, Cole, and DC were all with the team from training camp (and scrubs like Rivers and Salmons never were) and we had average (not great) injury luck?
To me, it is very hard to believe THAT scenario brings us the same 45 wins. So, if it doesn't, how can we call this team a 45 win team? The New Orleans Pelicans won 45 games in 2014-15, but I don't think we are bringing back that exact team.
Jimmer, Austin, Babbitt, Douglas, Mekel, Salmons played about 2700 minutes (remember Luke starting 19 games - yeah that happened). That's 33 mpg from guys who won't see the court for the team this year.
I am just saying we are not bringing back the same team that won 45 games.
To me, it is very hard to believe THAT scenario brings us the same 45 wins. So, if it doesn't, how can we call this team a 45 win team? The New Orleans Pelicans won 45 games in 2014-15, but I don't think we are bringing back that exact team.
Jimmer, Austin, Babbitt, Douglas, Mekel, Salmons played about 2700 minutes (remember Luke starting 19 games - yeah that happened). That's 33 mpg from guys who won't see the court for the team this year.
I am just saying we are not bringing back the same team that won 45 games.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 11:51 am to Crewz
Using win share estimates it would add about 5 wins if Q-Pon, Cunningham, and Cole were there the entire year instead of Rivers, Salmons, and Jimmer.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 12:05 pm to Crewz
48-52. To me, it's tough because of shifting roles due to those injuries.
My concerns: I don't know if Q shoots 43% from 3 again, but just his career (36%) will be good. Curious to see how much run Cunningham/Cole get if they have healthy Anderson/Jrue. But 50 wins should be the low end of what to expect IMO.
My concerns: I don't know if Q shoots 43% from 3 again, but just his career (36%) will be good. Curious to see how much run Cunningham/Cole get if they have healthy Anderson/Jrue. But 50 wins should be the low end of what to expect IMO.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 12:43 pm to corndeaux
Okay, so if we are bringing back a 48-52 win team, with what we think should be a better coaching staff and system, and we have maybe the highest returning continuity rate in the league and a superstar looking like he will take another step (3's and improved D) - what would be insane to expect?
60 wins? Probably. But would 55-57 wins be out of the question? I really don't think so.
60 wins? Probably. But would 55-57 wins be out of the question? I really don't think so.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 1:07 pm to Crewz
I'm not making any predictions until we know more about Jrue. His ankle is key to this season.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 1:18 pm to TigerinATL
I think predictions are pretty pointless regardless. They mean nothing, and their only purpose is to keep things interesting over the next 3 boring months.
All I am saying is that for those who think the formula is:
Last year's wins + Roster upgrades = Next year's win total, I don't think it is fair to put 45 wins in that first slot.
Not that I think that formula is good in the first place, but for those who do use it, I think 45 is the wrong number.
All I am saying is that for those who think the formula is:
Last year's wins + Roster upgrades = Next year's win total, I don't think it is fair to put 45 wins in that first slot.
Not that I think that formula is good in the first place, but for those who do use it, I think 45 is the wrong number.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 1:28 pm to Crewz
I'm not trying to say anything negative about people making predictions, in fact I'm making a prediction by not making one. I think a healthy Jrue makes such a big difference for this team. I think there's a better than 50% chance we go up 2-1 on the Warriors with a 100% Jrue, and we definitely hold onto game 3.
This post was edited on 7/5/15 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 7/5/15 at 1:35 pm to TigerinATL
Pels could have won game 2.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 2:12 pm to Crewz
quote:
would 55-57 wins be out of the question? I really don't think so
I think that is fair.
I feel like it's coming across that I'm upset with the summer or the team. I'm not down on the roster. I think bringing guys back is the right play. I'm on board with Gentry et al.
They are probably a long shot to get to the WCF, but 2nd round is realistic, with health/coaching. Still think Demps has a big move to make, but they're on schedule and trending up.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 3:00 pm to corndeaux
This might be one of the better deals in the league, so glad to have him back at that price! I really thought he was a 5-6 million guy after how he played last year. Good stuff.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 5:39 pm to VOR
Imagine AD and Lillard. A guy can dream.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 6:05 pm to Crewz
quote:
All I am saying is that for those who think the formula is: Last year's wins + Roster upgrades = Next year's win total, I don't think it is fair to put 45 wins in that first slot. Not that I think that formula is good in the first place, but for those who do use it, I think 45 is the wrong number.
Yeah, because even without considering the injuries, the Pels are a young team that is getting better. Don't all of us expect AD to be even better next season than he was this past season? Don't we have one of the youngest teams in the league?
Posted on 7/5/15 at 9:29 pm to TigerinATL
It is 100% in the cards. Practiced it last year a ton and they expect it to continue this summer and use it in games.
The question is if he has the range to hit from wings or top. That might not be possible, but that is the dream.
The question is if he has the range to hit from wings or top. That might not be possible, but that is the dream.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 9:34 pm to Crewz
Even if he only shoots the 3 from the corner, that's a big upgrade over that 18 ft corner 2 he took 80+ times last season.
Posted on 7/5/15 at 9:40 pm to Epic Cajun
An absolute waste of money.
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