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re: Aug 6th BI Deadline

Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:20 am to
Posted by Dantheman504
N/A
Member since Jun 2013
5745 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:20 am to
BI isn't going to get less than:

3/110
4/140

Ideally any average per year @35-45mil is a good value.

Even a (4) year deal at 45 would put him around 50mil in 5 years. You will have guys making 65-70mil in a similar category.

This post was edited on 8/6/24 at 8:21 am
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29616 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:22 am to
quote:

DeMar Derozan is his best comp in the NBA, and he just got 3/74.



Derozan is much older, which is why he's making $25M/yr. Not many teams would be willing to pay a 38 year old $25M.

KCPand Tobias Harris are making $22M and $26M, but sure BI is similar players to those two.



There's nothing wrong with BI making $39M the first year of his extension. $50M+ is too much. $39M would put him $3M over what he's making this year. Big whoop.



On a side note, Trey Murphy has until Oct 21st to sign his rookie extension.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
13457 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:40 am to
quote:

Derozan is much older, which is why he's making $25M/yr. Not many teams would be willing to pay a 38 year old $25M.

KCPand Tobias Harris are making $22M and $26M, but sure BI is similar players to those two.



There's nothing wrong with BI making $39M the first year of his extension. $50M+ is too much. $39M would put him $3M over what he's making this year. Big whoop.



On a side note, Trey Murphy has until Oct 21st to sign his rookie extension.
Obviously we all would like BI to take as little as possible to help the cap. However, $25-$30 million is not realistic on a long term deal. Something in the $40 million range is probably fair for both sides. Something like 3 years/$120 million or 4 years/$160 million. When it gets to the later years, it will seem low, If Griff is able to get him for less than that, it would be a win. Anything more would be an overpay IMO.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
13457 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:49 am to
quote:

Obviously we all would like BI to take as little as possible to help the cap. However, $25-$30 million is not realistic on a long term deal. Something in the $40 million range is probably fair for both sides. Something like 3 years/$120 million or 4 years/$160 million. When it gets to the later years, it will seem low, If Griff is able to get him for less than that, it would be a win. Anything more would be an overpay IMO.
Hoping for something closer to $35 million/year.
Posted by Balsamic_duck
Member since Jun 2017
4255 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:51 am to
Hoping for a BI for Collins and Kessler trade. maybe we get a couple 2nds too but as long as we get collins and kessler im cool
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127709 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:58 am to
Why do this to yourselves?
Posted by Balsamic_duck
Member since Jun 2017
4255 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 8:59 am to
quote:

Why do this to yourselves?


Everyone here is a masochist
Posted by mhasen1
Texas
Member since Feb 2008
1863 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 9:11 am to
quote:

Obviously we all would like BI to take as little as possible to help the cap. However, $25-$30 million is not realistic on a long term deal. Something in the $40 million range is probably fair for both sides. Something like 3 years/$120 million or 4 years/$160 million. When it gets to the later years, it will seem low, If Griff is able to get him for less than that, it would be a win. Anything more would be an overpay IMO.


The team has been trying to trade him for 3 months because they want to move forward with Herb and Trey on the wings. Nobody has offered anything of substance for him on an expiring 36 million dollar contract.

Signing him to an extension is a huge risk. He might commit to being a 6'9" jack of all trades player he showed in March that completes this team. Or he might continue to be the one way iso player that he has been for most of his career. If the Pelicans had confidence that he would be the former, he would have been offered a 5 year max with no questions. It's clear that they think there is a good chance he still is the latter, which could not only cost them Trey Murphy but could be even harder to trade at 4/160 than he was at 1/36.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
13457 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 9:17 am to
quote:

The team has been trying to trade him for 3 months because they want to move forward with Herb and Trey on the wings. Nobody has offered anything of substance for him on an expiring 36 million dollar contract.

Signing him to an extension is a huge risk. He might commit to being a 6'9" jack of all trades player he showed in March that completes this team. Or he might continue to be the one way iso player that he has been for most of his career. If the Pelicans had confidence that he would be the former, he would have been offered a 5 year max with no questions. It's clear that they think there is a good chance he still is the latter, which could not only cost them Trey Murphy but could be even harder to trade at 4/160 than he was at 1/36.
Good teams do not let young talented players walk for nothing. Having a reasonably priced contract secured may make him more marketable. The max demand is the main reason he has not been dealt.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29616 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 9:18 am to
You have to be realistic.
He's making $36M this year. Next year he'll need to make more than that. He's not goign to accept a deal making less annual money at 26 years old. He may have ended the year on a dud, but he's still a really good nba player and showed improvement defensively this year.

a 4/$160M contract would have him making $35.7M next year, which is less than what he's making this year. That's not happening.


a 4/$178M contract would have him making $39.5M in the first year.

That $39.5M number is an appropriate increase from his current contract, and also a hair over 25% of the cap next year, which is similar to what he's making now.

2026 39.5M
2027 42.6M
2028 46.1M
2029 49.8M


This contract is actually equal to what OG just signed. They'd be making the same amount this year, and every following year, well.....BI making just slightly more each year.
They will start out making 25% of the cap, and at the end of the contract it likely will be around 23%, even though BI is getting 8% increases each year.
That contract also puts him making just about the same amount as Zion does, as he'll make $39.4 next year.



I think this 4/$178 is the bare minimum he would accept, and it's where we would ideally want him at. He's still going to want the full 4/$208 but I think he's realized no one wants to give him that. While 4/$178 is probably fair value, he'll want 4/$190ish, and i'd bet we'll end up giving him 4/$186.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
464075 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 9:25 am to
quote:

However, $25-$30 million is not realistic on a long term deal. Something in the $40 million range is probably fair for both sides. Something like 3 years/$120 million or 4 years/$160 million.

Agreed.
Posted by WaltWhite504
Member since Sep 2021
2108 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 9:27 am to
quote:

expiring 36 million dollar contract.


+15% Trade Kicker = $41.4m

This is the problem. Even if a team wanted him, there are no teams who can absorb this amount. Every team is trying to ditch cap right now, except Utah and they wont move Markkanen until after today. He is not signing extension.

Once they move LM - money could become available via multiple trades. Utah may just want BI on a one year because they have cap room? Options go from none to moderate.

Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29616 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 9:32 am to
quote:

Good teams do not let young talented players walk for nothing. Having a reasonably priced contract secured may make him more marketable. The max demand is the main reason he has not been dealt.





THIS!


no one wants to give up a ton for an expiring contract that they don't know if they will resign.
A team would be a lot more willing to give up somethign substantial for him at the deadline if he's got 4/$180 left, and he starts this season off well.
That being said, if we don't trade BI, or CJ, and we give BI an extension, it seems very obvious that one of them will be traded at the deadline, and it won't be the one that's got more value, it'll be the one that has less value to our team success.

If Murray/BI/Zion mesh well together and BI's game improves off the ball while Murray is able to take a leadership role at the end of games and help us close more games out in the clutch, then that's the team you want going forward. There is a lot more potential for success with BI than without him. That happens, then CJ is kind of expendable and needing to be moved. But if CJ comes off the bench and is scoring and helping us win, then maybe they finally make the decision to pay the tax and compete for a championship. I have a hard time believing there's enough shots available for Zion, BI, Murray, CJ, and Trey. CJ or Trey averaging 12-14ppg isn't maximizing their talents, and as a 5th guy you're not going to averag 18-20ppg. Having 3 guys average 20+ isn't common, and having a 5th guy average more than about 12-13ppg isn't common either.
If Murray/BI/Zion don't mesh as well, and the coaches don't see it fitting well, then you trade him. Simple as that.



I am still very intrigued to see what a Murray/Herb/BI/Trey/Zion lineup can do. I just think that lineup has potential to be special. You get those 5 guys to commit to playing smart team defense and they would be extremely difficult to outscore for anyone, especially if BI takes a few more open catch and shoot 3's off of Zion and Murray's on ball work. If Herb and Trey are shooting 40%, and BI just takes a few more and is hitting them near 40%, and every single one of them is dangerous when run off the line, that's a really really tough 5 to defend against.
This post was edited on 8/6/24 at 9:56 am
Posted by Baron
Member since Dec 2014
1880 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:02 am to


In all honesty, at this point I could see something around a 3/120-130 extension, with the last year being a player option, making sense for both sides. This basically lets us kick the can down the road to try again.

-We would have to start him at at least $37m+ with 8% raises, which would put us in a tougher, but not impossible position that we could still get out of the tax.

-BI would get a raise and gives him the flexibility/opportunity to get a bigger contract in a less cap-strapped market sooner if he outperforms it.

-A deadline deal gives the new team 1.5 years of control and BI would also be extension eligible still for the new team. BI also retains some leverage with the new team to decline his PO.
This post was edited on 8/6/24 at 10:09 am
Posted by mhasen1
Texas
Member since Feb 2008
1863 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:12 am to
quote:

This contract is actually equal to what OG just signed. They'd be making the same amount this year, and every following year, well.....BI making just slightly more each year.


The Knicks were 26-5 with Anunoby and 13-16 without him. He just set the NBA record for plus/minus. He is literally the perfect player in the perfect role for that team.

Comparing Ingram to OG is much more ridiculous than comparing Ingram to Tobias Harris.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42740 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:14 am to
Harris got even a better VORP. Man BI really fricked this whole org
Posted by Pels_Yaz
Member since Apr 2023
11544 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:18 am to
quote:

THIS!


Agree with NOSHAU here but the key is good teams usually trade these players quicker than what Griffin has done especially if they didn’t want to give him the max. To me as soon as BI rejected the supposed extension offer last summer- Griffin should have tried to trade him. Instead its put Griff in a tough spot where he has to trade him or he overpays him.

To me the whole BI thing is an example of Griff valuing his own players more than the market does. And if thats the case- then just pay him but this no mans land scenario should not be an option.
This post was edited on 8/6/24 at 10:21 am
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29616 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:23 am to
Most people think that is way too much for OG.
He's a 3rd best player, at best, and 3rd best shouldn't be making max money.

and i agree, he is in the perfect role over there, and Bridges will be too. They dont' have the burden of creating offense. Just play defense and knock down open 3's. But that's not a role that shoudl be getting paid max money.

98% of OG's 3's are assisted on.
69% of his 2's were assisted on this year, which was a huge uptick from the previous 6 years of his career where that number was 56%. That's what happens when you have no offensive responsibility to score on your own.
BI is at 40% on 2's and 82% on 3's the last 3 years.
Maybe BI's % assist numbers will increase with the addition of Murray, which I think they will. BI's numbers or no where near OG's, and that's b/c they are different offensive players. You can say BI needs to shoot more open 3's, and everyone agrees with that, but BI is a much much better individual scorer and creator than OG, and that's a skill that every team needs from at least 2 guys, if not 3. The knicks aren't asking OG to do what BI does.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29616 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:26 am to
quote:

To me as soon as BI rejected the supposed extension offer last summer- Griffin should have tried to trade him. Instead its put Griff in a tough spot where he has to trade him or he overpays him.



I think had you seen a healthy BI and Zion at least once in the previous 4 seasons before this year, then trading BI last offseason would have been a lot simpler decision to make.
The fact that they had played together for 4 years and we still had very little to go on with how they played together, we had no choice last offseason and we had to give them this year of health to see what we had.
Posted by mhasen1
Texas
Member since Feb 2008
1863 posts
Posted on 8/6/24 at 10:29 am to
quote:

The knicks aren't asking OG to do what BI does.


For the most part, Ingram has not been doing what the Pelicans are asking him to do.

That is why he has not been signed to an extension. That is why he is on the trade block. That is why all the offer for him have been "crap". And if he doesn't start doing what the team asks him to do, it will be why he will be looking at Tobias Harris money instead of OG money.
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