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Started By
Message
a VERY optimistic wins projection
Posted on 8/20/19 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 8/20/19 at 3:40 pm
quote:
Used TRE (Tracking RAPM Estimate, aka rebranded TPM) and @JacobEGoldstein rookie PIPM projections + @kpelton minutes to whip up some win projections This accounts for SOS, but not rest or travel effects.
quote:
Used 60/30/10 weights for the last 3 years of TRE, along with mean regression weighted by minutes (average mean regression of .85 as low as .94), and additional mean regression for all of the players who switched teams (10% above normal mean regression (this might be too much))
just the west
13
Posted on 8/20/19 at 3:49 pm to cgrand
I feel like all advanced statistics projections hate the Blazers and the Spurs.
Posted on 8/20/19 at 3:54 pm to Epic Cajun
sure seems that way
last year too
last year too
Posted on 8/20/19 at 4:01 pm to cgrand
I'll allow it.
Posted on 8/20/19 at 4:07 pm to cgrand
I would absolutely be ecstatic if this happened and we have a better record than the Lakers.
Posted on 8/20/19 at 4:13 pm to roguepelican
The Pels are a deep team that plans to run fast and play defense every night. That’s a formula for over achieving in the regular season.
Posted on 8/20/19 at 4:33 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
The Pels are a deep team that plans to run fast and play defense every night. That’s a formula for over achieving in the regular season.
And tbh I don't even think we're "one move away" from being championship contenders.
We just need the guys we have to continue to develop. We're absurdly young. We don't necessarily need more/different guys, we just need experience.
Probably the only guy we'll need to replace any time soon will be Redick, but even he probably has another year or so left in the tank at the end of his current deal.
Posted on 8/20/19 at 4:52 pm to JohnnyKilroy
I don't think I would put it past Gayle to hang a banner in the SKC that says "2019 -- Pels 4th in West -- Lakers 8th"
Posted on 8/20/19 at 5:09 pm to cgrand
New Orleans 48.3
Los Angeles Lakers 40.8
Posted on 8/20/19 at 6:06 pm to cgrand
We’re gonna win more games than the clippers? 
Posted on 8/20/19 at 6:33 pm to cgrand
48 wins and a home seed to start the playoffs would be sensational
Posted on 8/20/19 at 6:49 pm to cgrand
I will eat my dick if we finish ahead of both the LA teams
Posted on 8/20/19 at 6:52 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
And tbh I don't even think we're "one move away" from being championship contenders.
We just need the guys we have to continue to develop. We're absurdly young. We don't necessarily need more/different guys, we just need experience.
That's the most exciting thing to me.
If Zion and the other rookies reach expectations, and Ball/Ingram take the next step we have a really young really talented really deep team.
That's a haul.... folks.
Posted on 8/20/19 at 6:52 pm to 7LSU7
quote:
I will eat my dick if we finish ahead of both the LA teams
This post has been bookmarked.
Posted on 8/20/19 at 6:53 pm to 7LSU7
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:27 am to cgrand
so.......
last place in the west, Kings
Thunder winning 44 games
Clippers barely being above .500, same with Warriors
Blazers and Spurs having a losing season
The Grizzlies winning as many as the Nets, who somehow will be worse this year than last.
When your projections come out like this, maybe start looking into what makes up the projections and start making some adjustments.
last place in the west, Kings
Thunder winning 44 games
Clippers barely being above .500, same with Warriors
Blazers and Spurs having a losing season
The Grizzlies winning as many as the Nets, who somehow will be worse this year than last.
When your projections come out like this, maybe start looking into what makes up the projections and start making some adjustments.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:02 am to TeddyPadillac
those projections are based on statistical modeling
the inputs take into account player impacts (PIPM), estimated minutes, strength of schedule
they differ dramatically from Vegas odds (subjective) but that’s where you find value, by using objective measurements to compare. just another tool, as nobody can see the future.
I’m just happy that the league appears to be more wide open this year for a change with a broad range of possible outcomes
the inputs take into account player impacts (PIPM), estimated minutes, strength of schedule
they differ dramatically from Vegas odds (subjective) but that’s where you find value, by using objective measurements to compare. just another tool, as nobody can see the future.
I’m just happy that the league appears to be more wide open this year for a change with a broad range of possible outcomes
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:10 am to cgrand
I haven’t seen the actual data used for this, but let’s look at the lakers for example.
It’s clear that regression from lebrony is expected.
likewise from Davis as his usage rate will likely drop and he’s never played the minutes he is expected to play now.
outside those two the rest of the roster is comprised of role players with glaring weaknesses that drag down their advanced stats (which attempt to quantify impact on wins and losses). they should be a much better playoff team than regular season team, but this is projecting regular season wins. Danny green for example had an atrocious regular season last year, and not much better playoffs...he might be cooked, and he’s going to start and play 30 minutes as their third option
It’s clear that regression from lebrony is expected.
likewise from Davis as his usage rate will likely drop and he’s never played the minutes he is expected to play now.
outside those two the rest of the roster is comprised of role players with glaring weaknesses that drag down their advanced stats (which attempt to quantify impact on wins and losses). they should be a much better playoff team than regular season team, but this is projecting regular season wins. Danny green for example had an atrocious regular season last year, and not much better playoffs...he might be cooked, and he’s going to start and play 30 minutes as their third option
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:32 am to cgrand
i don't know where the data comes from either, or how they are coming up with their projections, but if you have the Pelicans and Thunder finishing ahead of the Clippers, Warriors, Nets, Blazers and Spurs, you probably aren't doing it right.
Quick way to lose all credibility is publishing something this silly.
Quick way to lose all credibility is publishing something this silly.
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