Posted by
Message
cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
18073 posts

a VERY optimistic wins projection
quote:

Used TRE (Tracking RAPM Estimate, aka rebranded TPM) and @JacobEGoldstein rookie PIPM projections + @kpelton minutes to whip up some win projections This accounts for SOS, but not rest or travel effects.




quote:

Used 60/30/10 weights for the last 3 years of TRE, along with mean regression weighted by minutes (average mean regression of .85 as low as .94), and additional mean regression for all of the players who switched teams (10% above normal mean regression (this might be too much))


just the west



Epic Cajun
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
19572 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
I feel like all advanced statistics projections hate the Blazers and the Spurs.


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
18073 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
sure seems that way
last year too


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
10
roguepelican
Member since Jan 2019
369 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
that would be crazy lol


Bonkers119
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
NOLA
Member since Dec 2015
4603 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
I'll allow it.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
50
quail man
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New York, NY
Member since May 2010
39268 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
I would absolutely be ecstatic if this happened and we have a better record than the Lakers.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
130
TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
51193 posts
 Online 

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
The Pels are a deep team that plans to run fast and play defense every night. That’s a formula for over achieving in the regular season.


JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
20602 posts
 Online 

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
quote:

The Pels are a deep team that plans to run fast and play defense every night. That’s a formula for over achieving in the regular season.


And tbh I don't even think we're "one move away" from being championship contenders.

We just need the guys we have to continue to develop. We're absurdly young. We don't necessarily need more/different guys, we just need experience.

Probably the only guy we'll need to replace any time soon will be Redick, but even he probably has another year or so left in the tank at the end of his current deal.


jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
1500 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
I don't think I would put it past Gayle to hang a banner in the SKC that says "2019 -- Pels 4th in West -- Lakers 8th"


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
170
TwoDatBait
New Orleans Saints Fan
Northshore, LA
Member since Jul 2011
2455 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection


New Orleans 48.3
Los Angeles Lakers 40.8



Replies (0)
Replies (0)
190
TD SponsorTD Fan
USA
Member since 2001
Thank you for supporting our sponsors
Advertisement
Cheesy Beaver
Tulane Fan
Kenna brah
Member since Dec 2014
2350 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
We’re gonna win more games than the clippers?


Stingley Island
LSU Fan
Minnie's Haberdashery
Member since Jun 2019
246 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
48 wins and a home seed to start the playoffs would be sensational


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
20
7LSU7
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2016
469 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
I will eat my dick if we finish ahead of both the LA teams


SLafourche07
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2008
6212 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
quote:

And tbh I don't even think we're "one move away" from being championship contenders.

We just need the guys we have to continue to develop. We're absurdly young. We don't necessarily need more/different guys, we just need experience.




That's the most exciting thing to me.

If Zion and the other rookies reach expectations, and Ball/Ingram take the next step we have a really young really talented really deep team.


That's a haul.... folks.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
90
SLafourche07
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2008
6212 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
quote:

I will eat my dick if we finish ahead of both the LA teams




This post has been bookmarked.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
180
MrJimBeam
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2009
2759 posts
 Online 

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2010
14071 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
so.......
last place in the west, Kings
Thunder winning 44 games
Clippers barely being above .500, same with Warriors
Blazers and Spurs having a losing season
The Grizzlies winning as many as the Nets, who somehow will be worse this year than last.

When your projections come out like this, maybe start looking into what makes up the projections and start making some adjustments.


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
18073 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
those projections are based on statistical modeling
the inputs take into account player impacts (PIPM), estimated minutes, strength of schedule

they differ dramatically from Vegas odds (subjective) but that’s where you find value, by using objective measurements to compare. just another tool, as nobody can see the future.

I’m just happy that the league appears to be more wide open this year for a change with a broad range of possible outcomes



cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
18073 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
I haven’t seen the actual data used for this, but let’s look at the lakers for example.
It’s clear that regression from lebrony is expected.
likewise from Davis as his usage rate will likely drop and he’s never played the minutes he is expected to play now.

outside those two the rest of the roster is comprised of role players with glaring weaknesses that drag down their advanced stats (which attempt to quantify impact on wins and losses). they should be a much better playoff team than regular season team, but this is projecting regular season wins. Danny green for example had an atrocious regular season last year, and not much better playoffs...he might be cooked, and he’s going to start and play 30 minutes as their third option


TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2010
14071 posts

re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
i don't know where the data comes from either, or how they are coming up with their projections, but if you have the Pelicans and Thunder finishing ahead of the Clippers, Warriors, Nets, Blazers and Spurs, you probably aren't doing it right.

Quick way to lose all credibility is publishing something this silly.


first pageprev pagePage 1 of 2next pagelast page

Back to top

logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram