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Started By
Message
re: a VERY optimistic wins projection
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:52 am to TeddyPadillac
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:52 am to TeddyPadillac
the stats say what the stats say.
you are calling the output silly because it disagrees with the conventional narrative
perhaps the takeaway should be that there are possible outcomes supported by statistics that will be surprisingly different from the expected outcomes
you are calling the output silly because it disagrees with the conventional narrative
perhaps the takeaway should be that there are possible outcomes supported by statistics that will be surprisingly different from the expected outcomes
2
Posted on 8/21/19 at 9:01 am to cgrand
I completely agree with what you said.
If i were putting out something like that, i'd come out and say something like, "we inputted data from the previous x amount of years and found that our projections were accurate to +/- this amount"
That would be a way for me to take your projections seriously. By not saying that, you basically are saying we made this outlandish projection b/c we know it's shocking and will draw attention, and that's how we intend on making money on this, not by being technically smart, but by shock.
If i were putting out something like that, i'd come out and say something like, "we inputted data from the previous x amount of years and found that our projections were accurate to +/- this amount"
That would be a way for me to take your projections seriously. By not saying that, you basically are saying we made this outlandish projection b/c we know it's shocking and will draw attention, and that's how we intend on making money on this, not by being technically smart, but by shock.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 9:45 am to TeddyPadillac
I think analytical projections for the Pels, and for a lot of teams are going to be off, mostly due to player movement. Players aren't static, their production will be largely based upon the other players they are playing with and the "system" that they are in.
7 of the Pels rotation players (top 10 or so) will be new to the team this year. That isn't including Hayes and NAW, who could break into the rotation at some point.
7 of the Pels rotation players (top 10 or so) will be new to the team this year. That isn't including Hayes and NAW, who could break into the rotation at some point.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 10:02 am to Epic Cajun
yes player movement is the dramatic variable. the guy who ran this simulation took that into account
whether or not that was the "right" thing to do is debateable but thats what he did. and that helps the teams with continuity (ie: orlando, and others)
quote:
and additional mean regression for all of the players who switched teams (10% above normal mean regression
whether or not that was the "right" thing to do is debateable but thats what he did. and that helps the teams with continuity (ie: orlando, and others)
Posted on 8/21/19 at 10:14 am to Epic Cajun
also, back to the lakers for a minute...
their two best players will be out of position if they get their way. davis is a center who wants to play 4 and james is a PF that wants to play 3 or 1.
so they will wind up with a negative player at center, a negative at the other guard, and kyle kuzma. we all have made fun of kuzma, but look at his stats especially his synergy stats (percentiles).
honestly i struggle to see them over .500 with this roster
their two best players will be out of position if they get their way. davis is a center who wants to play 4 and james is a PF that wants to play 3 or 1.
so they will wind up with a negative player at center, a negative at the other guard, and kyle kuzma. we all have made fun of kuzma, but look at his stats especially his synergy stats (percentiles).
quote:
Transition: 34th percentile
Catch-and-shoot: 30th percentile
Jumpers: 35th
Spot-up (including drives): 50th
Off-screen: 40th
Cut: 35th
Post-up: 46th
Pick and roll as ball-handler: 65th
Roll man: 57th
honestly i struggle to see them over .500 with this roster
Posted on 8/21/19 at 11:37 am to cgrand
quote:Their record will be dependent upon how many games LeBron and AD play, and on top of that, how many they play together. I don't see them winning many games when either of them are out. Their team isn't deep enough for that. But, I think when they are both playing, they will have a good winning percentage.
honestly i struggle to see them over .500 with this roster
Posted on 8/21/19 at 1:05 pm to 7LSU7
Start watching old film on Kobayashi -you'll wanna get it down quick.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 4:29 pm to cgrand
No.
Adding two all stars to decent clippers does not make them below pels and tied with sf.
Was this put out before free agent signings?
So.pels home court first round. Vs clippers/warriors coin flip.
Adding two all stars to decent clippers does not make them below pels and tied with sf.
Was this put out before free agent signings?
So.pels home court first round. Vs clippers/warriors coin flip.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 8/21/19 at 4:54 pm to Cheesy Beaver
quote:
We’re gonna win more games than the clippers? ?
this must be presuming zion is having a bird magic wilt kareem oscar mj rookie year.
Just remember, mj got beat by larry/mchale and the chief and then again by larry et al. and then by sweetness, rodman.
Y1+Y2+Y3 = 0
Posted on 8/21/19 at 5:02 pm to cgrand
Brooklyn and detroit make playoffs with losing records.
Top 4 from each conf.
Your teams 3 thru 6 would care about that last month.
Top 4 from each conf.
Your teams 3 thru 6 would care about that last month.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:57 pm to CelticDog
Chris Paul and Steven Adams gonna roll to the playoffs?
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:36 pm to cgrand
What I want to know is if this guy did a projection last year. If so, how successful was it compared to other computer models like 538's? Compared to predictions from scouts and human "experts"? Compared to Vegas odds?
Posted on 8/21/19 at 8:41 pm to cgrand
I will say this about the prediction: most of the statistical models, such as 538, don't include anything about scheme and player fit.
We have a team rather exquisitely constructed to fit a particular offensive scheme, and also provide a great locker room.
I do not think that it's crazy to think that we could finish 4th in the West. I still think that 7th is more likely, but I don't understand anyone thinking that this team will miss the playoffs.
We have a team rather exquisitely constructed to fit a particular offensive scheme, and also provide a great locker room.
I do not think that it's crazy to think that we could finish 4th in the West. I still think that 7th is more likely, but I don't understand anyone thinking that this team will miss the playoffs.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 2:34 am to GOP_Tiger
This team isn't making the playoffs..
Posted on 8/22/19 at 6:21 am to brmark70816
quote:
This team isn't making the playoffs..
This post has been bookmarked.
Posted on 8/22/19 at 7:29 am to brmark70816
quote:I think it's pretty stupid to make a definitive statement like this on either side of the argument. Barring injuries, the Pels will be in the mix for the 8th seed at worst.
This team isn't making the playoffs..
Posted on 8/22/19 at 10:08 am to 7LSU7
quote:
I will eat my dick if we finish ahead of both the LA teams
Make sure you're on international waters.
Posted on 8/24/19 at 2:21 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
don't understand anyone thinking that this team will miss the playoffs
pretend to pay attention.
We begin with 8 chairs.
musical chairs
nba playoff slots.
Lets just talk about the last chair.
Dallas.
Kings.
Can you speculate on the odds that one or the other of sacto or dallas is #8.
Kings may be ready. Buddy is the man.
If porzingas is 100% no one can guard him on his hot nights. Big numbers. Luka will be a tad better. They might get #8.
You see that. Right? Not a miracle. Kings got a haul for boogie and the draft choices are year 2. They are going to be a load.
So pels are in for it.
Sure 4 is possible. Just as likely as 9th.
For a while we get to find out who drafted right.
The rookies like Cam Reddish.
The rookies voted hayes as much as zion.
That vindicates those on this board. If hayes is all that the pels are in the playoffs.
I wanted clarke at 8. Thats looking like a good pick.
He was a top summer league player.
This post was edited on 8/25/19 at 9:17 am
Posted on 8/25/19 at 5:39 pm to cgrand
This team has a lot going for in when it comes to analytics. I mean, we're gonna be fast. We have lots of good rebounders and defenders. It's gonna be fun.
Posted on 8/25/19 at 5:42 pm to Eman5805
October can't come fast enough shite I'm excited about training camp lol
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