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re: 2021 Lakers Thread
Posted on 3/26/22 at 10:34 am to Fun Bunch
Posted on 3/26/22 at 10:34 am to Fun Bunch
If the Pels ended up with 2 top 4 picks, both jumping from 9-12, the conspiracy theories that people would come up with would be amazing, and likely very contradictory. Some people would say it was done to keep Zion others would say it was done because the league knew Zion is gone.
This post was edited on 3/26/22 at 10:35 am
1
Posted on 3/26/22 at 10:35 am to TigerinATL
For there to be 2 Pels picks, Spurs, Wiz and Knicks would basically have to win out from here and Pels and Lakers lose out. Not to mention all the other ping pong wizardry
Not happening
Not happening
Posted on 3/26/22 at 10:37 am to Pelefraan 1
If we're going to speak this into existence you have to let go of logic and pelieve.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 10:45 am to Pelefraan 1
Don't like the chances of the Wiz keeping it up. Next 5 games are really tough outside of the Magic and just see them packing it in for the last 3 against teams with similar records.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 11:00 am to Pelefraan 1
quote:It doesn't remotely have to go down like that for us to get 2 picks.
For there to be 2 Pels picks, Spurs, Wiz and Knicks would basically have to win out from here and Pels and Lakers lose out
Posted on 3/26/22 at 11:25 am to shel311
Well, the chance of us getting two top 4 picks would have to be substantially less than 1%.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 11:32 am to shel311
quote:
It doesn't remotely have to go down like that for us to get 2 picks.
Lakers have to miss the playoffs and finish 10th or worse after lottery drawing
Plus
We have to miss the playoffs and jump into the top 4 by some miracle
So yeah, it's a pipe dream
Posted on 3/26/22 at 11:33 am to GOP_Tiger
If the season ended today with lakers and pels both out of the playoffs, we’d have around a:
- 17% chance at lakers top 4 pick
- 15% chance at pels top 4 pick
- 32% chance at a singular top 4 pick
- 2% chance at 2 top 4 picks
I think I did the math right
- 17% chance at lakers top 4 pick
- 15% chance at pels top 4 pick
- 32% chance at a singular top 4 pick
- 2% chance at 2 top 4 picks
I think I did the math right
This post was edited on 3/26/22 at 11:36 am
Posted on 3/26/22 at 11:56 am to Pelefraan 1
The only thing you NEED for a chance at two top 4 picks is for the Pels and Lakers to not make the actual playoffs.
Chances of it happening is low no matter what. But that’s all you NEED.
Chances of it happening is low no matter what. But that’s all you NEED.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 12:10 pm to PELsu
I honestly don’t even know what the Pels would do with two top 4 picks lol?
Obviously we’d be insane not to use them but the idea of Chet, Jabari, Paolo, or Ivey as your bench prospects is insane lol
Obviously we’d be insane not to use them but the idea of Chet, Jabari, Paolo, or Ivey as your bench prospects is insane lol
Posted on 3/26/22 at 12:17 pm to Bronc
quote:
I honestly don’t even know what the Pels would do with two top 4 picks lol?
Griff calls up Sam Presti and says "Remember when you bent me over a barrel for Steven Adams? It's your turn."
Posted on 3/26/22 at 12:41 pm to TigerinATL
We would swing for the fences for another difference maker at Guard, and if doesn’t work out, they will likely pick one guy and use the other pick in a smaller deal for good vets.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 12:49 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Griff calls up Sam Presti and says "Remember when you bent me over a barrel for Steven Adams? It's your turn."
A couple of us tried to warn that Griff was getting bent over in that trade contrary to popular opinion on here…..
This post was edited on 3/26/22 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 3/26/22 at 12:51 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Griff calls up Sam Presti and says "Remember when you bent me over a barrel for Steven Adams? It's your turn."
lol
Don’t think I would want to trade two top 4 picks for Shae even tbh
Unless Gayle is committed to being a Warriors-like cap team.
Honestly if Sharpe comes out I probably take one of the three bigs and Sharpe, as much as a I like Ivey. Sharpe’s upside is actual superstar and you can develop him off the bench the right way for a few seasons like the Warriors are doing with Kuminga and Moody.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 12:54 pm to PELsu
quote:This. That's what I was getting at with my previous post.
The only thing you NEED for a chance at two top 4 picks is for the Pels and Lakers to not make the actual playoffs.
Chances of it happening is low no matter what. But that’s all you NEED.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 1:05 pm to Bronc
quote:
Don’t think I would want to trade two top 4 picks for Shae even tbh
If the Pels have 2 top 4 picks it's likely OKC is sitting at 6. You don't have to trade him both, just trade him 1 for SGA and some future picks.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 1:13 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
If the Pels have 2 top 4 picks it's likely OKC is sitting at 6. You don't have to trade him both, just trade him 1 for SGA and some future picks.
I can't even understand the mental gymnastics trying to project what we might do with TWO top 4 picks.
The odds of that happening is 1 divided by the amount of grains of sand in the world
Why do you even
This post was edited on 3/26/22 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 3/26/22 at 1:22 pm to LilWezyAna
quote:
If the season ended today with lakers and pels both out of the playoffs, we’d have around a:
- 17% chance at lakers top 4 pick
- 15% chance at pels top 4 pick
- 32% chance at a singular top 4 pick
- 2% chance at 2 top 4 picks
I think I did the math right
The front page of Tankathon is great for seeing the % in real time, but no, the math is not correct.
The main reason that it is incorrect is that it is extremely likely that either the Lakers or the Pels will likely face off with the Clippers (or the Wolves, if they were to lose the 7-8 play-in game) in the 2nd play-in game for a spot in the actual playoffs. If the Lakers or Pelicans win that game, then that team moves out of the lottery.
The Clippers are currently playing poorly and on a 5-game losing streak. They are hoping to get PG13 back with a game or so before the play-in, but that's not guaranteed. Still, I think that we match up very well with the Clippers, and if we're healthy (minus Zion), I'd definitely bet on us over them. If the Lakers end up in that spot, there might be as many Lakers fans in the arena as Clippers fans, so the Clippers wouldn't have any kind of home court advantage.
In short, you could subtract the small percentage that the Spurs make the playoffs (538 currently puts that at 4%), but, after that, the chance of us or the Lakers making the playoffs is about 50%.
So, you need to take that 32% chance of us getting a top-4 pick and cut it in half.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 1:26 pm to Pelefraan 1
quote:
Why do you even
Because it's fun to imagine good things.
quote:
The odds of that happening is
Irrelevant to our discussion here. You know how Joel and AD talk about the lottery every week and what they'd do if they won? That's basically what this thread is for us.
Posted on 3/26/22 at 1:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
If the season ended today with lakers and pels both out of the playoffs, we’d have around a:
- 17% chance at lakers top 4 pick
- 15% chance at pels top 4 pick
- 32% chance at a singular top 4 pick
- 2% chance at 2 top 4 picks
Just curious...how did you arrive at the "32% chance at a singular top 4 pick" ??
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