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re: GoT "Middle Ground" Thread - Sn 4 - Offseason Discussion ***Spoilers Possible***

Posted on 5/5/14 at 3:52 pm to
Posted by BluegrassBelle
RIP Hefty Lefty - 1981-2019
Member since Nov 2010
108046 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 3:52 pm to
I thought, in speaking up to this point in the books/show, for a long time his motivation may have been to win back Catelyn Stark. To be "good enough" for her. Obviously that is out of the window with her death.

I tend to this post-Catelyn's death it's to punish the realm for treating him as a lesser man.
Posted by BlacknGold
He Hate Me
Member since Mar 2009
12483 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

it's to punish the realm for treating him as a lesser man.


i can see this. but his motivation couldnt have just been about Catelyn, since he plotted against Jon Arryn which does nothing to help that cause. it was just another chess move in power.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

maybe he plans to sell Westeros out to Braavos and hope to rule with them?



*Spoilery Hodor Theory*

Or maybe he plans to weaken the Lannisters and Tyrells by having them eat a bunch of the debt, then kill their claims to the throne by killing Margaery and Tomen, and then the kingdom would be up for grabs, with Littlefinger being king of one of the 7 kingdoms, while the Lannisters and Tyrells have been weakened by war and debt repayment.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

i really dont see this to be the case for LF though.


I do. He has a bit more cause to do what he does, but he does want to make as much destruction and chaos as possible within the realm, and completely destroy the highborn system, especially the Starks and the Tullys. Only in the end does he want them to completely understand how they never really stood a chance against him. Littlefinger will never rule the kingdoms through name since he's much too low born for that, and dozens upon dozens of families have better claims to the throne than he does, but he's going to try to take that system down as far as it will go.
Posted by BluegrassBelle
RIP Hefty Lefty - 1981-2019
Member since Nov 2010
108046 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

i can see this. but his motivation couldnt have just been about Catelyn, since he plotted against Jon Arryn which does nothing to help that cause. it was just another chess move in power.


Just some food for thought, maybe he knew that Robert would call for Ned to come to the capital when that happened as he did?
Posted by BlacknGold
He Hate Me
Member since Mar 2009
12483 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:06 pm to
interesting. I guess I always thought he had more of a motive than "frick this high born system." so hes a bitter, whiny child lashing out.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

i can see this. but his motivation couldnt have just been about Catelyn, since he plotted against Jon Arryn which does nothing to help that cause. it was just another chess move in power.


It does, Jon Arryn's death allowed Littlefinger to rapidly climb the latter of chaos to get to be The Lord of Harrenhall. Littlefinger's own name is filled with irony, since a little finger is supposed to be the most harmless part of your body, and LF uses these misconceptions to his advantage. In the end though, he wants to be seen as a giant. Jon Arryn's death has led to LF getting Ned executed, one of The Lord Paramount's of the Seven Kingdom, and now he has married into one that has an untapped army as well as the supposed heir to Winterfell under his grasp. Jon Arryn is honestly just guilty by association with the system that made him a more appropriate choice to marry Lysa than someone like himself. Tyrells, Lannisters, Martell, doesn't matter to him since they're all guilty by association.
Posted by BlacknGold
He Hate Me
Member since Mar 2009
12483 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

maybe he knew that Robert would call for Ned to come to the capital when that happened as he did?


but again, that didnt help get Catelyn. theres no way he foresaw every death in the horizon and that Catelyn would become a widow that quickly.
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
44932 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:09 pm to
Jon Arryn gave good counsel, but as Ned was told at the small council meeting Robert didn't listen. All of the key players Renly, Littlefinger, Jon Arryn, Tywin & Vary's all knew how much debt Robert was running up. The Crown isn't broke they are in major debt.

One of the 7 kingdoms went into open rebellion. Another Dorne, while Jon Arryn made peace, Prince Doran wasn't going to bend a knee. When Robert was talking to Ned about killing Dany, he knew if she came he could only count on the support of 5 kingdoms, not the Iron Isles or Dorne. Even Tywin two episodes back was attempting to "get Dorne back in the fold."

Now his master of coin had the King's hand murdered so he could marry his wife. The queen was having babies with a member of the king's guard. His Master of Laws is murdered by his Master of Ships, both of which were his brothers. The Night's Watch has fallen to his lowest point in his long history, under his reign. His commander of the City Watch is so corrupt, that despite Jon & Stannis telling him to get rid of Janos, he keeps. He then would go and murder some of Robert's bastards. He was a great warrior and a terrible king.
Posted by BlacknGold
He Hate Me
Member since Mar 2009
12483 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

It does


i meant it didnt matter in terms of being solely motivated by Catelyn. i agree with everything else you said, based on him wanting to climb that ladder, which is what im suggesting is his main goal.
Posted by BluegrassBelle
RIP Hefty Lefty - 1981-2019
Member since Nov 2010
108046 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

but again, that didnt help get Catelyn. theres no way he foresaw every death in the horizon and that Catelyn would become a widow that quickly.


Having Ned in KL, in a volatile situation, definitely improves the chances that he doesn't make it back to Winterfell. Especially if LF is pulling the strings.
Posted by BlacknGold
He Hate Me
Member since Mar 2009
12483 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:11 pm to
clearly he is a character full of many schemes and many reasons for them. he is full of hate and spite and will burn down the world to get what he feels he is owed.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

that didnt help get Catelyn. theres no way he foresaw every death in the horizon and that Catelyn would become a widow that quickly.


Actually, if he killed Jon Aryn, which we know he set up, and he knew Ned would be tapped as the next Hand, then it stands to reason he could lead the honorable Ned Stark down the same path Jon Aryn took. After Ned asked the same questions Jon Aryn asked it'd be easy to get rid of him in a similar manner and make it look like the Lannisters were fiercely guarding a secret.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

interesting. I guess I always thought he had more of a motive than "frick this high born system." so hes a bitter, whiny child lashing out.


To me, Petyr Baelish died during his duel with Brandon Stark, and from it Littlefinger was born. I think he has very little of his personality left from that time aside from being clever. He then became a manipulative, vengeful Machiavellian of the highest Order who seeked to destroy the families and system that he felt was holding himself back. In season 1, Littlefinger has admitted as much that that was the defining moment of his life and when he changed his outlook on it.
Posted by BluegrassBelle
RIP Hefty Lefty - 1981-2019
Member since Nov 2010
108046 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:14 pm to
Obviously it was a risk he took, but he's clearly a man that isn't afraid to role the dice and compromise if he needs to in order to meet his goal.
Posted by BlacknGold
He Hate Me
Member since Mar 2009
12483 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

To me, Petyr Baelish died during his duel with Brandon Stark, and from it Littlefinger was born. I think he has very little of his personality left from that time aside from being clever. He then became a manipulative, vengeful Machiavellian of the highest Order who seeked to destroy the families and system that he felt was holding himself back. In season 1, Littlefinger has admitted as much that that was the defining moment of his life and when he changed his outlook on it.


this is a great way to view it and i think is closest to the truth. so im assuming his end game right now is to rule the vale with sansa at his side after he manipulates and murders lyssa and robin
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:38 pm to
quote:

Actually, if he killed Jon Aryn, which we know he set up, and he knew Ned would be tapped as the next Hand, then it stands to reason he could lead the honorable Ned Stark down the same path Jon Aryn took. After Ned asked the same questions Jon Aryn asked it'd be easy to get rid of him in a similar manner and make it look like the Lannisters were fiercely guarding a secret.


Yep, the only person who was dumb enough to think that Ned would accept the job, was Robert himself. Littlefinger knew this as well, and he had to have Ned as the next King's Hand. Ned knew he wouldn't accept the job until he got the letter from Lysa saying that the Lannisters murdered Ned's father figure, and that they were plotting on murdering Robert.

If Ned refused, Tywin, Jaime, Renly, or Littlefinger himself would have become Hand, but that position would really do nothing for Littlefinger. He would have no great keep, no loyal guardsmen, and no army to take up his cause if he were killed. Littlefinger needed a Hand that he could predict and control, as well as one that had a large army and had some enmity with the Lannisters. Ned was the perfect choice for Littlefinger, and it is just gravy that Ned is the person Littlefinger wants to kill the most in this world.

Ned is incredibly predictable and always goes for the more honorable choice, which would be warn Cersei for the sake of her children. Any doubt Littlefinger had that Ned would do this was confirmed when he refused to send an assassin after Dany. He couldn't have Ned leave, and needed him to sniff around some more, so he suddenly "discovers" one of King Robert's other bastards in a brothel, and then Jaime right on cue comes in and stabs Ned in the leg as well as kills his household guard.

When Ned does come upon it and warns Cersei, Littlefinger can count on Cersei to kill Robert then since he foolishly surrounds himself with Lannister men at all times. She goes through with her plans, and has Robert killed. When Littlefinger goes up to Ned and makes him that offer, I honestly think that no matter what Ned said (and he knew what he would say), Littlefinger would have still betrayed him. Ned has served his purpose at this point by getting not only Stannis to take up arms against the Lannisters, but Renly as well. If he's able to get yet another army on the field, all the better for him to get within position of marrying Lysa. LF betrayed Ned, and was certainly hoping for his death from there, but not by his own hand (that would look bad).

Next up is Tyrion, who is onto Littlefinger's game due to the dagger. Littlefinger is too valuable as a liaison though to be taken out now, and Littlefinger knows that with Tyrion in the Capital, his time is running out. Unlike Ned, Tyrion is clever, resourceful, unorthodox, unpredictable, and doesn't really care about honor. He's the worst Hand that could possibly be in the Capital, but he needs to make sure that Stannis doesn't win, who would in all likelihood hang Littlefinger right after Joffrey and Cersei, so he has to spare Tyrion for a time since he's the only one who can really save the city. So he begins plotting the Purple Wedding, and has now taken out the one person he thinks is capable of defeating him.
Posted by Napoleon
Kenna
Member since Dec 2007
74272 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

One of the 7 kingdoms went into open rebellion.


Seven kingdoms, is a term that confused even me until last week.

I finally looked it up and got it.

At the time of the conquest, there were only seven kingdoms, as The Iron Islands ruled the Riverlands.

So they had.

King in the North - Stark
King of the Vale - Arryn
King of the Iron Islands and Riverlands - Harren
King in the West - Lannister
King in the Reach - Gardener
King of Dorne - Martells
King of the Stormlands - Durrandon

and the Island of Dragonstone - Targaryen


We know only the Martells didn't bow in the conquest. They came in the fold later.

We know that Harren was killed and Harrenhal destroyed.
At that time house Tully was raised up in the Riverlands to lord of the Riverlands.
House Greyjoy of Pyke was made the Lords of The Iron Islands.

House Baratheon was given everything of house Durrandon, down to the sigil.
House Gardener was replaced with house Tyrell
As the Targaryens changed up houses who didn't bend the knee.


So after the conquest we have

North - Stark (Currently Bolton of Dreadfort)
West - Lannister
Vale - Arryn (just married to Baelish of Harrenhal)
Riverlands - Tully (currently Baelish of Harrenhal)
Stormlands - Baratheon (conquered after Blackwater by Tyrell-Lannister army)
Dorne - Martell
Reach - Tyrell
Iron Islands - Greyjoy

Island Dragonstone - Baratheon (Stannis)


So when you hear seven kingdoms and there are eight regions, this is why.

(Not including King's Landing which is the capital of the Crownlands and the continent of Westeros to the wall)
This post was edited on 5/5/14 at 4:58 pm
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
44932 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 6:12 pm to
quote:

Stormlands - Baratheon (conquered after Blackwater by Tyrell-Lannister army)


Stannis' lord still holds Storms Ends

quote:

Riverlands - Tully (currently Baelish of Harrenhal)


I don't believe that is correct, the Tully's still hold Riverrun
This post was edited on 5/5/14 at 7:13 pm
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109287 posts
Posted on 5/5/14 at 7:20 pm to
The Tullys still hold Riverrun but LF was named Lord of the Riverlands when he was given Harrenhall.
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