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re: Why miss the last free throw on purpose?
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:47 am to Palm Beach Tiger
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:47 am to Palm Beach Tiger
haven't read this thread, but has anyone mentioned that it seemed like coach K even knew it was a questionable decision as he was VERY snappy and defensive describing the play? Was crying about the screen Howard laid on Singler before the heave, saying we would have guarded the shot just fine, "but Singler got killed!".
Sounded to me like classic over justification of something that in hindsight you knew was probably the wrong call.
I mean you just won the national title, and you go off on that tangent when the question wasn't even directly calling you out for the intentional miss? seems odd.
Sounded to me like classic over justification of something that in hindsight you knew was probably the wrong call.
I mean you just won the national title, and you go off on that tangent when the question wasn't even directly calling you out for the intentional miss? seems odd.
0
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:49 am to Helmethead
quote:
an intentional miss usually creates a longer rebound (as it did)
so you are saying the shooter had a better chance of getting the offensive rebound?
Pretty sure I would have made the free throw, but I can definitely see the strategy. Hell, even the announcers said "Butler wants Duke to make this FT"
Posted on 4/6/10 at 11:54 am to lsumatt
quote:
so you are saying the shooter had a better chance of getting the offensive rebound
technically i guess better is accurate, but i wouldn't say 4 v 2 is good enough odds to make a difference. I think it is well established and agreed upon (in this thread at least)that Duke was not making a sincire attempt at the rebound
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:00 pm to lsumatt
quote:
WHOAAAAA. 30%??? A guarded half court+, running, off-balance shot, has a 30% chance of going in? Good 3 point shooters make 30% of their shots (less than half that distance).
good 3 point shooters make closer to 40% now - singler for example, scheyer made 38%, smith made 39%... all from Duke this year
if you throw it the length of the court then very improbable... once you get past half court most good three point shooters will put a very good shot on the basket... like the butler player did last night
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:08 pm to Palm Beach Tiger
quote:
Again I think the uncertainty of whether Zoubek makes the free throw or not, had a lot to do with it. If it were Scheyer, I think he would have just gone ahead and made it.
That's an excellent point that I didn't consider.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:12 pm to molsusports
quote:
if you throw it the length of the court then very improbable... once you get past half court most good three point shooters will put a very good shot on the basket... like the butler player did last night
Don't look at outcome, look at the process.
Again, which is more likely to go in: a 60 foot shot or a 30 foot shot?
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:13 pm to lsumatt
quote:
If players had a 30% chance of making half-court point shots (guarded), I would have my shooting guard bring the ball up, set up, and drain a half-courter 5-6 times a game.
trying to remember the first coach (after the 3 point line came out) to preach that making 1/3rd of your threes equals making half of your shots inside the 3 point line... pretty obvious once it's pointed out
Anyway, there's no reason to back up further behind the 3 point line if you make 40% of your 3s near the line... serves no purpose
and none of this particularly matters all that much for the thread IMO... like Bilas said on Mike and Mike this morning... if they make the free throw Butler has pretty much the same shot they had to make to tie instead of to win
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:14 pm to Sophandros
quote:
Don't look at outcome, look at the process.
Again, which is more likely to go in: a 60 foot shot or a 30 foot shot?
I think you've distracted yourself with a point no one is arguing. Clearly the 30 foot shot is easier... and the 60 foot shot is harder whether it is to win or to tie
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:17 pm to Deactived
quote:
you make the foul shot and than foul as soon as the ball is inbounded in.
This is even more risky IMO since both were in the bonus. He could make the first then miss the 2nd and have a chance at an offense put back on missed FT plus the chances of getting a foul on the put back...
Butler had no TOs so they really wouldnt be able to set up a play.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:19 pm to Lacour
quote:
Damn Christian Laettner
+1
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:31 pm to molsusports
And I contend that it is so much more difficult that the odds of winning in regulation are better than the odds of winning in OT for Duke by NOT making the free throw.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:32 pm to STEVED00
quote:
Butler had no TOs so they really wouldnt be able to set up a play.
Another key reason to miss the FT and run a few more seconds off the clock.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 1:47 pm to Deactived
not sure where this thread has evolved to. I did not sort through the 5 pages but as a coach here is my take:
Duke's thought process was not to let them set up a play like im sure everyone said
also if you get a duke player can deflect or just touch the ball on the miss the game is over.
However 3 seconds is a ton of time, I would have chosen to go up 3 and either foul or just play defense.
With 2 seconds or less I would have thought hard about missing it and obviously if you were just going to go up 2 that is completely different.
Duke's thought process was not to let them set up a play like im sure everyone said
also if you get a duke player can deflect or just touch the ball on the miss the game is over.
However 3 seconds is a ton of time, I would have chosen to go up 3 and either foul or just play defense.
With 2 seconds or less I would have thought hard about missing it and obviously if you were just going to go up 2 that is completely different.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 2:01 pm to coachLSU
quote:
However 3 seconds is a ton of time, I would have chosen to go up 3 and either foul or just play defense
Zoubek was shooting 55% from the free throw line this season, so a make was far from automatic...
Posted on 4/6/10 at 2:03 pm to coachLSU
quote:
I did not sort through the 5 pages but as a coach here is my take
Thanks for the recap coach.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 2:28 pm to Sophandros
quote:
Another key reason to miss the FT and run a few more seconds off the clock.
But a foul on the rebound or a long rebound (like what happened) would be worse then an inbounds play IMO.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 2:33 pm to coachLSU
quote:
Duke's thought process was not to let them set up a play like im sure everyone said
they didnt have any timeouts though.
what Heyward did getting the rebound off the miss is about the same as what they prob would have done on an inbound play. Catch around the foul line or close to half court and hope for a miracle
i thinnk you def try and make the free throw.
Posted on 4/6/10 at 2:34 pm to Sophandros
quote:
10-15% chance of going in vs. a 30-40% chance of going in
saying that Butler would have 30-40% chance of making a three if Duke would have made the free throw is one of the most laughable things I have ever seen. Butler shoots 34% from the three-point line on the season. So you are saying there is maybe a better chance they hit a frantic, heavily guarded 35+ foot three at the buzzer? That is simply idiotic. Just because they run a "set piece" doesn't mean they are going to get a good shot of. In fact, they will still probably get a bad shot off.
Of course, the person saying there was a 30% chance Heyward makes his shot at the buzzer is way off too. Players practice halfcourt shots a lot, and they have a better chance of going in than people think, but that shot is like a 12-15% shot at best.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 4/6/10 at 2:40 pm to STEVED00
quote:
But a foul on the rebound or a long rebound (like what happened) would be worse then an inbounds play IMO.
ya, they couldn't really afford to risk fouling on the rebound when they are up two... because then they stop the clock and give butler two free throws to tie the game
no choice but to not contest the rebound and certainly not contest a three point shot... or you give them three including a potential game winner
best option still seems like take your chances trying to make the shot... because then at worst you can be tied
Posted on 4/6/10 at 2:50 pm to molsusports
why do some think Butler only was going to call a play if Duke made it, or they only practice an inbound play in that scenario... it is quite obvious they had a play called for a "miss" and it worked quite well
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