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re: Updated CFP National Championship Winner Odds

Posted on 9/28/26 at 12:35 pm to
Posted by Boodis Man
Member since Sep 2020
8576 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 12:35 pm to
alabama is losing their next 2 games. they're dealing with rat poison currently and unfortunately for them, no saban is around to keep them in check
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
62711 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 12:37 pm to
I think that Miami is making their offense far too dependent on Toney. Don’t know how they would handle him going down.
Posted by Riseupfromtherubble
You'll Never Walk Alone
Member since Jun 2011
40403 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 12:39 pm to
quote:


alabama is losing their next 2 games


perhaps. That wouldn't eliminate them from natty contention though

quote:

they're dealing with rat poison currently

No. The coaching staff was getting booed two weeks ago
Posted by Riseupfromtherubble
You'll Never Walk Alone
Member since Jun 2011
40403 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Don’t know how they would handle him going down.


I think they'd just turn around and hand it to Fletcher.

Posted by theCAW
Polk County
Member since Dec 2023
10278 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Georgia: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Notre Dame: +640 (bet $10 to win $74 total)
I’d switch these two. Notre dame is more complete and proven
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8766 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

I think that Miami is making their offense far too dependent on Toney. Don’t know how they would handle him going down.


That's what I was thinking of as well, and more specifically, how they looked against Wake in the second half when he was out. Now Wake isn't some pushover like I and everyone else thought, but holy hell did Miami look ragged in the second half against them. Fletcher was down; Toney was banged up; and they couldn't move the ball for shite against a solid but nothing special defense. Their main guy to relieve Fletcher (Brown) is out for the year. Barkate is a good player, but teams aren't going to design defenses around him.

They frankly had the same "issue" last year, especially through the playoffs but A) Toney stayed healthy and B) they were so good along both lines that it didn't matter.
Posted by MightyJoeYoung
Member since Jul 2026
291 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:40 pm to
Fla +2000 is just staring at you.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Member since Jun 2004
91354 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:40 pm to
quote:

Can they beat an elite team on a given night? Yes.

Can they make the CFP? Yes.


right, which is why +2500 seems like pretty decent odds right now.

I'm not predicting them to do so, nor would I put any amoutn of money on it. Just pointing out that a team with an offense like theirs (when healthy) getting those odds is pretty solid.
Posted by Dawg Collar
Member since Sep 2026
15 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:43 pm to
I think Oregon probably offers the best Bang for the Buck.
They just beat USC on the road by 2 TD's.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216823 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:55 pm to
Say what you want but UGA is the best team in the country..,
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37972 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

They just beat USC on the road by 2 TD's.


USC will be on quit watch by the middle of October. They’re terrible
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216823 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:11 pm to
The Trojans are very soft..
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
43968 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

ole miss seem like excellent odds here.

Florida is fool's gold right now.


Actual football field results says otherwise.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37972 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

Actual football field results says otherwise.


You’d lose a lot of money betting with this kind of logic
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
43968 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

You’d lose a lot of money betting with this kind of logic


I'm not betting on either of those teams because neither one of them are winning it, but Florida is the better team.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37972 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

Florida is the better team.


On a neutral field they really aren’t though.
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
43968 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

On a neutral field they really aren’t though.


Posted by Ghost of Colby
Alberta, overlooking B.C.
Member since Jan 2009
16203 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:47 pm to
quote:

Where’s top ten ranked BYU?
I think both BYU and Utah are better than TxTech this season.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Member since Jun 2004
91354 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

Actual football field results says otherwise.


wtf are you talking about?

-the odds for ole miss are favorable from a betting/ROI perspective.
-UF looks good but it's predominantly because they're running all over teams with no defense. Once they face a team with even the slightest hint at a D (which honestly might not even be til mid october) and are forced to pass more they will come down to earth. That isn't some shocking revelation.
Posted by Riseupfromtherubble
You'll Never Walk Alone
Member since Jun 2011
40403 posts
Posted on 9/28/26 at 5:02 pm to
I think it’s wide open for most of these teams and it’s still way too early to call anyone a favorite.

Georgia has the personnel on defense to strangle any offense.

Texas isn’t playing up to the level of their personnel on offense, but they have game breakers on both sides of the ball. That can matter in a one off.

Florida probably has the best player in country in Jaden Baugh.

LSU has a defense similar to Georgia and Texas but I don’t really trust the QB and I don’t think they have the playmakers around him to mask his deficiencies.

Ole Miss and potentially Alabama have a quarterback that can light anybody up on any given night- which is just the ultimate equalizer.

Ohio state is in a similar boat as Texas. Smith is right there with Baugh as an unstoppable force, but they don’t always play to their personnel.

Oregon ain’t it. Notre Dame is TBD. Healthy Miami is a nightmare matchup for anyone. NIL sucks but we ended up where everyone wanted. There is parity in college football.

I think those odds are about right. I’d have LSU a little lower and Florida a little higher. There aren’t any 2016 Alabama defenses out there. I think Florida can run it on anyone with that scheme and that tailback.
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