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re: Tips for betting on baseball?
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:18 pm to PurpleAndGold86
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:18 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
ou can look at a matchup all night long and the think that the pitcher should dominate the lineup and then the lineup comes out and puts up 8 runs on that starter. Sometimes it just doesn't make sense.
Cough cough kazmir
1
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:19 pm to 632627
quote:
i always preferred the 5 inning line, i was burned by shitty bullpens way too many times
Do some research on starting pitchers and go with the 5 inning line. Found this is best chances. Like person said, shitty bullpens suck for betting.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:19 pm to BlueIndian420
I find that the line primarily reflects a)the general quality of the team; b)the pitchers.
What is not reflected in the line as much is how hot the team is.
So, when I bet, and I rarely do anymore because I don't find it particularly enjoyable, are hot teams that are underdogs.
If you want to do it right, you'd probably need to learn the umps, the ballparks, and take a hard look at team splits
What is not reflected in the line as much is how hot the team is.
So, when I bet, and I rarely do anymore because I don't find it particularly enjoyable, are hot teams that are underdogs.
If you want to do it right, you'd probably need to learn the umps, the ballparks, and take a hard look at team splits
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:27 pm to BlueIndian420
I made a small profit on baseball when I lived in Las Vegas
The key is to never ever ever bet any line that is greater than -125. Stay away from the heavy favorites or you will get sunk.
Find the + money bets that have value. You win at baseball by hitting dogs.
Run lines are tempting but what people fail to realize is that a lot of them still have crappy value. I am not saying avoid run lines but only play them sparingly.
+1.5 run lines always have value, play them when they are under -125.
Totals are a coin flip, stay away
Cap starting pitchers through DIPS, not ERA and WHIP
But if you really want to make money bet on the WNBA. It's a gold mine
The key is to never ever ever bet any line that is greater than -125. Stay away from the heavy favorites or you will get sunk.
Find the + money bets that have value. You win at baseball by hitting dogs.
Run lines are tempting but what people fail to realize is that a lot of them still have crappy value. I am not saying avoid run lines but only play them sparingly.
+1.5 run lines always have value, play them when they are under -125.
Totals are a coin flip, stay away
Cap starting pitchers through DIPS, not ERA and WHIP
But if you really want to make money bet on the WNBA. It's a gold mine
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:28 pm to volfan30
quote:
Worst sport to bet on imo.
False... its football and its not even close. Either NFL or College you will get your arse handed to you
Only 3 sports are possible to beat: Baseball, WNBA, College Hoops
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:31 pm to goldennugget
quote:
False... its football and its not even close.
Yeah, but you're like really dumb.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:32 pm to goldennugget
I think all sports are beatable; what beats players is poor betting and money management.
All you have to hit is 52.5% to win.
You can flip a coin and hit 50%.
Am I supposed to believe that the human mind can't improve that by 2.5%? Easily.
It's the gambling that gets them.
All you have to hit is 52.5% to win.
You can flip a coin and hit 50%.
Am I supposed to believe that the human mind can't improve that by 2.5%? Easily.
It's the gambling that gets them.
This post was edited on 6/25/14 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:34 pm to Overbrook
Take the OVER on strikeouts for the opposing pitcher against the Mets when Bartolo Colon is pitching. Colon will K at least 2-3 times when he's up to bat.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:37 pm to Overbrook
quote:
You can flip a coin and hit 50%.
lolwut? You can flip a coin and you would have a 50% chance to hit ONE SINGLE bet. You cannot flip a coin and hit 50%. That is a HUGE difference.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:53 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
Free advice to the OP - Don't listen to any of the generic blanket statements such as this one.
What the frick are you talking about.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:55 pm to Carson123987
quote:
Cough cough kazmir
Kazmir is literally my baseball kryptonite. I've bet against him 7 times this year thinking he was due for regression. I'm 0-7 in those games. Of course last night was only the 2nd time I've bet on him all year and he gets shelled. I'm 0-9 betting Scott Kazmir pitched games this year. frick that guy.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 4:00 pm to LasVegasTiger
quote:
Do some research on starting pitchers and go with the 5 inning line. Found this is best chances. Like person said, shitty bullpens suck for betting.
Not that I don't bet 5 inning lines, but in truth, shitty bullpens even out over time. You just don't remember the times when it benefits you. You only remember all the times you bet on the Tigers, only to have Joe Nathan's sorry arse come in the 9th inning and blow a 3 run lead, or when you bet the Reds/Latos and have the bullpen blow a 9-3 lead. I'm not bitter.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 4:21 pm to tzimme4
Baseball is the best thing to baseball for a profit. Just takes some time and research, but any bookie will tell you that they can get hit in baseball. But it's not that big of a deal because so few play it regularly. Take dogs or favorites on the runline. you can hit less than 50% and still make money.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 4:27 pm to JW
From my gambling experience and what everyone else said it is mainly about who's starting the games and baseball is the sport which has the most statistics and the most analysis of all sports via sabrmetrics. So do the money ball thing. Baseball is the sport where home field advantage and momentum mean the least also.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 5:30 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
Thank you everyone! Some good advice in here. What's the scoop on betting the WNBA?
Posted on 6/25/14 at 5:32 pm to JW
quote:
any bookie will tell you that they can get hit in baseball.
This is what I have heard as well.
quote:
Take dogs or favorites on the runline. you can hit less than 50% and still make money.
this is pretty much my strategy as well. I rarely play a favorite over about -130. I always switch over to the run line at that point. I play probably 80% road dogs on the moneyline and probably 90% home favorites on my runline bets.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 5:40 pm to BlueIndian420
ask him ----->>
Posted on 6/25/14 at 6:19 pm to BlueIndian420
save your money and go play at the craps table instead. A lot more fun and better odds of winning.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:23 pm to BlueIndian420
I wouldn't do it.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 8:26 pm to BlueIndian420
quote:
Also thinking about betting on some world cup games but that seems so risky.
but you don't think betting on a random late June game between the Royals and Rockies is risky???
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