Taking a QB with a Top 10 pick is dumb

What’s the hit rate on QBs taken outside the top 10?

Doesn’t really answer the question

The class of 2020 looks to be the exception over the last 10yrs.

Do you want Watson,Winston as your Qb?

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What’s the hit rate on QBs taken outside the top 10?

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he cant talk about that because it then makes his BS argument as dumb as it already sounds.

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You are dumb if you think he's the only good QB on the list. I don't even have to look at the list to know that:

Burrow
Allen
Herbert
Luck
Lawrence
Tua

Were all first rounders and good NFL QBs. Add in Watson, Goff, Winston, and Jackson and that's 1/3 of the starters in the NFL right now

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I don't want to jump the gun but Stroud is looking pretty damn good for 4 games in a rookie season.

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The class of 2020 looks to be the exception over the last 10yrs.

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A QB outside the first round materializing into a good NFL QB is a bigger exception to the norm. The hit rate for first round players, in general, isn't great but it's better than the hit rates for later rounds.

Everyone has a starting QB. That's not really the appropriate analysis. Not all of those players are good. It's who are the best QBs. Plus or minus a few I think most would agree with this list

Mahomes
Burrow
Allen
Hurts
Herbert
Tua
Jackson
Lawrence

Of that group, 6 of 8 were taken with top 10 picks.

That's not to say every top 10 QB pick will pan out. Nor does it say a QB MUST be taken in the top 10 to be great. But the probably to hitting on a great QB with a pick outside the top 10 is statistically lower (perhaps much lower) than the rate of hitting on one taken in the top 10

if the 32 NFL Teams

15 have Starting QBs taken in the top 10

5 have QBs in picks 11-32

4 have 2nd round QBs
2 Have 3rd around QBs
3 have 3rd around QBs
2 have 2nd around QBs
1 has a 7th around QB

3 of those are backups
OConnel (4th) for Jimmy G (2nd)
Dobbs (4th) for Kyler (1 of 1)
Thompson-Robinson (5th) for Watson (12 of 1)

If anything, the worst investments are drafting a QB outside of the top 10 in the first round. Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson have been the only QBs worth a damn drafted in the 11-32 range over the past 15 years. Usually, QBs drafted in that range are guys who either dropped due to significant flaws or were huge reaches.