PFF - Justin Herbert has been great, Joe Burrow has been better

quote:

---

PFF
@PFF

Justin Herbert has been great.

Joe Burrow has been better.

@PFF_Steve explains why ??

---

quote:

---

Herbert has been spectacular throwing the ball down the field, and he’s owned the early-season highlight reels. He is tied for fourth in big-time throw percentage at 6.7%, and he’s done a fairly good job at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, though his poor plays have often come at inopportune times.

Those two numbers are a great baseline for success, and Herbert’s success on those game-changing throws is a big reason why he’s been hyped up as the best rookie quarterback. However, even with the high-end plays, Herbert ranks just 21st in the total percentage of positively graded plays, and he’s only 28th at avoiding negatives. So, there is no doubt that Herbert’s arm strength and downfield accuracy have been a huge asset early in his career, but he has room to improve on all of the plays in between, where he ranks below average in the NFL.

As for Burrow, his grading profile is almost the exact opposite of Herbert's. Burrow ranks just 27th in big-time throw percentage and 21st at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, both far worse than Herbert. However, Burrow has the ninth-highest rate of positives and the eighth-lowest percentage of negatives. He’s not in Herbert’s class in the extremes, but the throw-for-throw performance has been much more consistent.

The other place where the performance is polar opposite is on passes up to 20 yards versus the deep passes (passes of 20-plus yards). Burrow has the third-best PFF grade on throws up to 20 yards at 90.4, while Herbert ranks just 18th at 73.2.

However, Herbert ranks 13th league-wide on 20-plus-yard throws, while Burrow is just 27th. This matches the previous narrative about big-time throws, but once again, Burrow has the edge when it comes to the stability of his success. Short and intermediate success is much more stable than downfield passing, and those 20-plus-yard throws tend to fluctuate from year to year. This bodes well for Burrow, as he’s already mastering the portion of the field where most of his throws will occur, and the downfield passes should positively regress in his favor at some point in the future.

---