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2
Posted on 9/19/13 at 11:53 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
UTSA -2.5
ULL -6
Tennessee +17.5
Notre Dame -4.5
Rutgers -2
LSU -16
ULL -6
Tennessee +17.5
Notre Dame -4.5
Rutgers -2
LSU -16
Posted on 9/20/13 at 12:06 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Lol, you don't
ill post that tomorrow, as soon as I get it all updated.
ill post that tomorrow, as soon as I get it all updated.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 1:42 am to dgtiger3
can you explain the upset rating?
Posted on 9/20/13 at 2:01 am to Memphis
I'm glad I stayed away from Clemson earlier this week. I did really well in game betting after I got a feel for NC State.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 7:36 am to Memphis
quote:
can you explain the upset rating?
I created it two years ago going through boxscores of the previous five seasons of games in which the underdog either won the game outright, or covered the spread by atleast 10 points. It factors in six stats both offensive and defensive that I found to be the strongest indicators and then ranks all of the teams 1-125. It has been an incredibly strong predicter between weeks 3-8 last two years, and tends to level off a little later in the year. The thing I didn't forsee when creating it was that teams with a poor upset rating seem to be more prone to being upset. Which is why I now only use it in matchups where the underdog has a stronger rating than the favorite.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 8:28 am to dgtiger3
just checking in to make sure everyone won their free money last night on Clemson laying 2 TDs??
Posted on 9/20/13 at 8:59 am to Ford Frenzy
quote:
just checking in to make sure everyone won their free money last night on Clemson laying 2 TDs??
thats some hatin right there. it was bad enough for them having to watch NC state convert three 4th downs
This post was edited on 9/20/13 at 9:01 am
Posted on 9/20/13 at 9:06 am to Ford Frenzy
quote:
Ford Frenzy
Follow these steps please
Posted on 9/20/13 at 9:07 am to HoLeInOnEr05
so mad
it was a lock I was told
it was a lock I was told
This post was edited on 9/20/13 at 9:11 am
Posted on 9/20/13 at 9:09 am to dgtiger3
dg, nice excel sheet. Did you ever make a post explaining the different stats and your reasoning for including those stats?
Posted on 9/20/13 at 9:10 am to Ford Frenzy
quote:
it was lock I was told
Not by me. I don't use the L word. I didn't know that Tahj would look like Kiehl Frazier last night.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 9:17 am to dgtiger3
I loved LSU, but this rain has me considering hedging out of at least 1unit. Just too many variables in shite weather vWhat do y'all think.
Have LSU -16.5 2*
Considering AU+17.5 1*
Have LSU -16.5 2*
Considering AU+17.5 1*
Posted on 9/20/13 at 9:52 am to WRedmondsStang
Obviously square plays are square plays because on paper they should win easily, I understand that, but the people that say you're a moron for thinking otherwise are so much fun to at when those plays lose. Last night was a perfect example...now on to tonight, Fresno is my play here. Boise is finally not any good.
at when those plays lose. Last night was a perfect example...now on to tonight, Fresno is my play here. Boise is finally not any good.This post was edited on 9/20/13 at 9:53 am
Posted on 9/20/13 at 10:54 am to Ford Frenzy
Stanford -5.5 at home against ASU is interesting. A lot of people are down on Stanford after the army game but that's a tough game to get up for and they were kicking off at 9am PT. wouldn't surprise me to see Stanford win by 10-13 in this one.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 10:57 am to WRedmondsStang
quote:
I loved LSU, but this rain has me considering hedging out of at least 1unit. Just too many variables in shite weather vWhat do y'all think.
would strongly consider it... both teams are likely to run the ball more, shortening the game... the crowd could have some of it's effectiveness taken away... and Mett hasn't thrown a pick all year. LSU running the ball more could mean more turnover opportunities for Auburn's defense.
just my $0.02, but the odds of LSU covering decrease with significant rain.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 11:00 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:that line is dropping so fast, something is up..I think it opened at -9 and was -7 yesterday
Stanford -5.5 at home against ASU is interesting. A lot of people are down on Stanford after the army game but that's a tough game to get up for and they were kicking off at 9am PT. wouldn't surprise me to see Stanford win by 10-13 in this one.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 11:02 am to Ford Frenzy
That game was by no means a lock, but Clemson should have covered easily.
Major props to the NC State defense, holding Clemson to 3 and out on numerous occasions is definitely not easy to do(also forcing Boyd out of the pocket and thus miss open WR on several occasions). That being said, I don't think Boyd played good at all. His stat line isn't bad, and he strung together a few good drives and made some good passes; but also made too many mistakes. Too many bad reads on the read option where he let the RB take the ball and get hammered for a 3 yard loss, when he could have kept it and run for positive yardage. Then there was the post route to Watkins that Boyd completely airmailed. They connect on that and all the Clemson bettors are sprinting to the pay window b/c that completely drains the life out of the stadium. Just seemed like Chad Morris didn't have a great game with the play calling either, but then again that could go back to whatever NCSU was doing. BTW Beasley is a beast! I know he was going against a new, much smaller OT; but that guy did whatever he wanted. And that Underwood kid has some serious jets.
to the NCSU backers, I should have listened; but instead bought into the Clemson hype. I had the Tigers at -13.5 and -12.5(checked right before kickoff and it had dropped to there so I grabbed it again).
Major props to the NC State defense, holding Clemson to 3 and out on numerous occasions is definitely not easy to do(also forcing Boyd out of the pocket and thus miss open WR on several occasions). That being said, I don't think Boyd played good at all. His stat line isn't bad, and he strung together a few good drives and made some good passes; but also made too many mistakes. Too many bad reads on the read option where he let the RB take the ball and get hammered for a 3 yard loss, when he could have kept it and run for positive yardage. Then there was the post route to Watkins that Boyd completely airmailed. They connect on that and all the Clemson bettors are sprinting to the pay window b/c that completely drains the life out of the stadium. Just seemed like Chad Morris didn't have a great game with the play calling either, but then again that could go back to whatever NCSU was doing. BTW Beasley is a beast! I know he was going against a new, much smaller OT; but that guy did whatever he wanted. And that Underwood kid has some serious jets.
to the NCSU backers, I should have listened; but instead bought into the Clemson hype. I had the Tigers at -13.5 and -12.5(checked right before kickoff and it had dropped to there so I grabbed it again). Posted on 9/20/13 at 11:04 am to Ford Frenzy
I like Stanford in this situation. ASU looked sloppy last week at home.
Posted on 9/20/13 at 11:04 am to DovaVol
quote:I disagree, NC State had a TD called back and Clemson got 2 timeouts in just before failed 3rd downs that turned into 10 points
That game was by no means a lock, but Clemson should have covered easily.
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